The Geopol Journal

We talk geopolitics.

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BREAKING: DONALD TRUMP ELECTED 47TH U.S. PRESIDENT. REPUBLICANS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT MAJORITIES IN BOTH HOUSES OF CONGRESS.

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NEW ARTICLE: on the eve of the U.S. election we are proud to publish our latest article contrasting the foreign policy of Trump and Harris.

If foreign policy is important to you then give this a read!

https://t.co/xMz5thnTkT

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https://t.co/D2GXLI7vQs

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https://t.co/D2GXLI7vQs

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BREAKING: ISRAEL CONDUCTING AIRSTRIKES IN IRAN; EXPLOSION REPORTED AROUND TEHRAN. SCOPE OF THE OPERATION UNCONFIRMED.
-Reuters

IDF statement:

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🚨BREAKING: HAMAS LEADER YAHYA SINWAR ELIMINATED BY ISRAELI FORCES

*U.S. STATE DEPT: WE SEE THIS AS AN OPPORTUNITY TO END THE WAR -- WE ARE GOING TO PUSH FORWARD WITH GAZA CEASEFIRE PROPOSAL

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Kamala Harris Says: Iran🇮🇷 Greatest U.S.🇺🇸 Adversary

When asked which country is the U.S.'s greatest adversary in her 60 Minutes interview, Harris said, "I think there's an obvious one in mind, which is Iran."

This is an interesting take, given that many consider China🇨🇳 the primary geopolitical rival of the U.S.

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South Korea🇰🇷 and Philippines🇵🇭 Presidents Meet on Defense Cooperation Amid Regional Tension

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr met on Monday to discuss bolstering defense cooperation amid tensions with China. The understanding between the two nations includes:

- Elevating defense cooperation and ties to a strategic partnership.
- South Korean support for Philippine military modernization with advanced defense systems.
- Agreements on coast guard cooperation for maritime security in the South China Sea.
- Committing to upholding a rules-based order and condemning North Korea's nuclear program.
- An MOU for a feasibility study on reviving the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant.
- Increasing South Korean defense exports, including fighter jets and warships to the Philippines.
- South Korea aims to increase defense exports, already selling fighter jets and warships to the Philippines.

This follows the Philippines accused a Chinese law enforcement vessel of brutally beating the crew of a Vietnamese fishing vessel in the South China Sea.

In other regional news, the U.S. and the Philippines agreed to keep the mid-range Typhon missile system in Northern Philippines, last month. This system is capable of striking far into China, raising alarms among Chinese officials, and signaling a deepening commitment to Chinese containment by regional players.

Source: Reuters, Defense News

Chinese Territorial Claims in S. China Sea:

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🇱🇧🇮🇷🇮🇱 Middle-East Update: War Escalates as October 7th Anniversary Marked

➡️ 5 Hezbollah rockets struck the Israeli port of Haifa after eluding the Iron Dome, injuring 8 civilians.
➡️ This was the first instance of a successful rocket attack on the port since the 2006 war; Israel is investigating the failure to intercept.
➡️Airstrikes continued throughout Lebanon and intensified in Gaza.
➡️ Several Hamas commanders were killed in Lebanon and the death toll exceeded 2,000 according to the Health Ministry.
➡️ Israel has now committed 3 divisions to its operation in southern Lebanon.
➡️There are unconfirmed reports that the US🇺🇸 has offered compensation to Israel to tone down its retaliation. US CENTCOM Commander Gen. Kurilla is visiting Israel to conduct these negotiations (Jerusalem Post).

These developments follow a tense weekend, as the world awaits an Israeli response to Iran's missile barrage. Israel has been taking out radar stations in southern Syria🇸🇾, which may be preparing the way for an air offensive. Iran also allegedly requested satellite data from Russia🇷🇺 in anticipation of retaliatory attacks.

Sources: BBC, Reuters, Times of Israel

ISW Mapping of Southern Lebanon:

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🇱🇧🇮🇱 Strikes Target New Hezbollah Leader; Fate of Hashem Safieddine Still Unconfirmed.

Israeli airstrikes hit Beirut's Dahiye suburb late Thursday, targeting Hezbollah leader Hashem Safieddine, reported successor to Hassan Nasrallah.

Safieddine was reportedly in an underground bunker, though his fate remains unclear. The strikes followed evacuation orders for parts of the Hezbollah stronghold.

Tensions in the region continue to escalate as Israel intensifies its military actions against Hezbollah.

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🚨BREAKING: DOCKWORKERS AGREE TO SUSPEND STRIKE TO ALLOW FOR NEGOTIATIONS.

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🇦🇪🇸🇦🇮🇷 Gulf States have sought to reassure Iran of their neutrality in the ongoing conflict with Israel

This follows concerns that Iran might attack arab neighbors' oil facilities if Israel or the US retaliate for Iran's missile strike on Israel.

Source: Reuters

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🇮🇷🇮🇱Update: Iranian Barrage More Succesful Than Initially Thought

It appears that the Iranian strike on Israel was more successful than previously thought. While initial claims that the bulk of missiles were intercepted are still true, it appears there were several successful strikes, in particular on Nevatim Airbase.

We can now revise our initial analysis and say that Iran has restored some of its deterrent credibility with this strike. Israel will have to consider its next actions carefully.

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Iranian🇮🇷 Missile Strike on Israel🇮🇱 Summary + Takeaways:

- Iran fired 180+ ballistic missiles, claiming 90% hit targets.
- Israel and the U.S. claim the majority were shot down.
- No major injuries in Israel, 1 death in the West Bank, lending credence to these claims.
- Iran claims strikes were defensive, targeting Israeli military bases.
- Israel vows retaliation; Iran warns of "vast destruction" if attacked further.
- The U.S. also vowed "severe consequences" for the attack, stoking fears of a wider regional war.
- UN Security Council to meet; EU has called for immediate ceasefire.
- Israel has renewed airstrikes on Hezbollah in Beirut’s southern suburbs.

One point of curiosity: footage seems to contradict Israeli and U.S. claims that the bulk of missiles were shot down. Likewise, the missiles that got through, seem to have largely missed their targets contradicting Iranian claims that 90% hit. See the video clip below of the missile crater near the Mossad HQ.

Whether or not Iran intentionally missed or not, their deterrent threat has been diminished either way. They appear either unwilling or unable to inflict costs on Israel out of fear of retaliation.

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@JamesBo73130536 Thanks for joining! It was a pleasure!

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No one was taking sides. We were discussing Israeli rhetoric from Netanyahu which was a veiled threat implying that the Iranian regime might change. We were trying to analyze Israeli logic, not endorsing it. If you want to join future discussions please message or tag me in a response.

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Join us for another great discussion!

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We are live!

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