It's our pleasure to have @myrosenbrg, Ph.D. and CEO of @GeoQuant, at #StateStreetLIVE to introduce data-driven political risk assessment using the GeoQuant platform.
Geoquant’s fundamental Political Risk indicators correlate with sovereign ratings: lower rated countries exhibit higher Risk scores across a robust sample of countries, a pattern that holds for Governance Risk, Social Risk, and Security Risk.
Analysis: https://t.co/gkDWoHzFXw
In this edition of our Weekly Pulse series, we highlight how declining #SoverignRisk indicates that many central banks are exercising prudent monetary policy in the face of difficult macroeconomic circumstances.
Read our full analysis: https://t.co/znt4wwwnnl
Italy’s 25 Sept. election is expected to produce a right-wing coalition, increasing Political and Sovereign Risks; the forecast on IR Risk rises but remains in check, suggesting clashes with Brussels will be more noise than signal.
Read more: https://t.co/uVMxRYnn36
#Political Risk will continue to rise under new #UK Prime Minister Liz Truss, driven by growing Socioeconomic and International Relations Risks. Macroeconomic Policy Risk will also rise from increased government borrowing.
Read our full analysis: https://t.co/jfyq2ksYmQ
Migration/Population Risk is increasing as campaigns for general elections in #Italy and #Sweden and the leadership race in the #UK highlight anti-immigration sentiment. Tougher immigration policies are likely to result in all three.
Read more: https://t.co/GEBbh9SoFG
In this week’s research we analyze Macro-Politics in Asia. Most notably, we find Macroeconomic Policy Risks rising in China, pushed up by looser economic policies which run against Beijing’s efforts to rein in private debt growth.
Analysis: https://t.co/48dkKs0lWJ
Argentina legislator Sergio Massa took a “super minister” role to tackle Sovereign Risk by satisfying IMF goals to ensure a Sept. EFF payment; Government Instability Risk rose to new highs as Peronists positioned for the 2023 presidential race.
See: https://t.co/rT3E2M8cvg
Institutional Support Risk will rise in Oct. in EU as energy inflation hits consumers. Tensions within #DEU and #FRA governments may impede energy production. In #SWE, the government is focusing its election campaign on other issues.
Read more: https://t.co/kDtD07Np38
#Kenya analysis this morning: as anticipated, election is v. close and risk of contest outcomes is high, but risk of post elex violence is lower than previous cycles and courts will ensure a stable transition of power. More here: https://t.co/uV17tvUuu9
GeoQuant’s data indicates aggressive monetary policy often coincides with higher Social Risk. Brazil, Colombia, Chile, and Peru, are most vulnerable to these dynamics, as their central banks pursue rate hikes while their politics moves left.
Analysis: https://t.co/zVbqEXInu8