H100 now has 763.2 Bitcoin on its balance sheet.
In total, they should have ~270,053,296 SEK in outstanding capital that they have already received (after a 5% deduction of cost).
This money is already recieved but have not yet been able to use to buy Bitcoin (due to delays in TradFi systems).
If they make these purchases at the current BTC price, they would reach exactly 1,000 BTC.
If the mNAV remains unchanged at 3.46 (which is currently far too low), the share price would come to 11.27 SEK after deploying the remaining estimated capitale.
11,27 SEK is also exactly the amount for a potential activation of Tranche 8, which would add another 285 BTC to the balance sheet at current Bitcoin prices.
This is without additional price increases from potential US ticker volumes, etc. Very bullish, therefore.
Ps. the way @H100Group is stacking the mNAV should be 8 mNAV or something like that.. This is just crazy undervalued if you ask me.
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NFA ofcourse, just math.
Long post, let's dive into why the current mNAV (8) for @_ALTBG is too low in my opinion.
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Current metrics:
- BTC stockpile: 847
- Fully diluted shares: 214,500,536
- Treasury: €78,151,843
- Sats per share: 395
- Stock price: €2.945
- mNAV: 8.08
- Months to cover mNAV: 4.61
- BTC Yield YTD: 863%
- BTC Yield QTD: 19%
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After latest BTC conversion and private placement:
- BTC stockpile: ~1,526
- Fully diluted shares: 305,301,558
- Treasury: €140,790,504
- Sats per share: ~500
- mNAV: ~6.38 (assuming price remains the same)
- Months to cover mNAV: ~3.70
- BTC Yield YTD: ~1,120%
- BTC Yield QTD: ~50%
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If we maintain the current mNAV, the price would rise to €3.73; if the price stays the same, mNAV drops to 6.38.
The Blockchain Group is undervalued in my opinion. People aren't fully grasping the unlimited scalable opportunity that ALTBG has with its BTC convertible debt instead of fiat convertible debt.
I believe mNAV should be higher than 8. Here's why:
mNAV is just one KPI, showing the premium on stock based on treasury holdings. Months to Cover mNAV (from @adam3us) provides more insight.
As an investor, I want to know how quickly the company can recover my paid premium to reach mNAV 1 based on intrinsic value.
If we give The Blockchain Group a hypothetical 6 months to cover intrinsic BTC value back to 1, based on their 1,120% BTC yield YTD in 5 months, the mNAV could be 20 (!!!) for a 6-month cover period.
This is incredibly bullish, with significant room for growth while remaining an accretive investment.
An mNAV of 20 may not be sustainable, but due to ALTBG's ability to stack BTC without hitting max leverage, all future scenarios are possible. They could hypoteticly find 1 whale and triple the current BTC holdings in 1 go..
So it really comes done to your own projections on how many BTC can @AlexandreLaizet and @Kosanovic_V stack by year-end?
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Lets do a assumption on there end of year goal off 3.000 BTC:
- 3,000 BTC by year-end
- €140,000 average BTC price for additional 1,500 BTC (assumtion)
- Share price: €5 with conversion premium (assumtion)
- €225,000,000 BTC conversion/private placements
- 45,000 diluted shares added (assumtion based on the € 5,-)
This would result in:
- 3,053 BTC treasury
- 872 Sats per share
- 2,027% BTC Yield YTD (thats a 20x if you where in from january...
- mNAV: 8 (same as now).
- Stock price: ~€ 10,-
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This is just if they double there holdings from here in the rest of the year.. Remember it is harder to get from 40 BTC to 1,500 BTC (which they did in 5 months) then it is to get from 1,500 to 3,000 BTC and they have to tools to suprise us any day of the week.
Believe me when i say this company is going places. There is so much room to go up. I am incredibly bullish.