The long US Dollar trade is crowded:
Speculative long positioning in the US Dollar surged to +$34.3 billion as of June 23rd, the highest in 18 months.
This covers hedge funds and asset managers, who take positions based on price trends and macro views rather than to offset existing currency risk.
Bullish positioning has more than TRIPLED in just 7 weeks.
This also marks the 15th consecutive week of net long positioning, the longest streak since the 21-week run between 2024 and 2025.
Meanwhile, bearish Yen positions held by leveraged funds rose to 115,033 contracts in the week ended June 23rd, near the highest since November 2017.
The long US Dollar trade could reverse soon.
The root of all dysfunction in Japan - and the reason the Yen keeps falling - is that the BoJ owns half of all JGBs. This keeps yields artificially low, with markets unable to price sufficient risk premia, so people head for the exit and the Yen falls...
https://t.co/abwLiwPPrK
Remarkable how much the Yen is falling even though markets know Japan is itching to pull the trigger on intervention. When that intervention comes, it'll briefly push $/JPY lower, but the next intervention will be even less effective than that in April...
https://t.co/N24ndkG8bl