Situation in Ethiopia 🇪🇹 escalating drastically into full-blown war.
TPLF forces invaded the Afar region, seizing a handfull of villages in what they claim was a pre-emptive operation against the rival Tigray Peace Forces.
Federal government now repsonding with airstrikes.
@Amharaawakening Both can’t be true at once? Nonsense! one was in 2022, the other now. Three years apart, not at once. Facts change... calling that a lie isn’t logic, it’s lazy thinking.
It is astounding to hear the Egyptian bid to control the rainfall in the Nile Basin. But Egypt should be held to acount for the unilateral diversion of the Nile water out of its basin to Sinai Peninsula and to Toshka Valley before any future negotiation on the Nile.
Title: Egyptian expert questioning his government's white lies
Quick reminder: on Oct 6 and 7, I said Egypt's towland flood story was staged and that the travel time made it impossible for their blame on GERD. Today, an Egyptian expert is saying the same, point for point. Cairo sold the world a headline it cannot defend with hydraulics, timing, or data. Here is a simple side-by-side: what I said then, and what their own expert says now.
I said (Oct 6 and 7) vs He said (today)
Timing
1. I said: River waves need days and weeks, not 2 or 3 days. A late September surge cannot flood Egypt by Oct 2 or 3.
2. He said: Water released at the High Aswan Dam needs about 5 to 6 days to reach Monufia. The big Sudan flood of Sep 25 would reach Lake Nasser around Oct 10, not Oct 2.
Towland flooding cause
1. I said: Egypt likely flooded itself and tried to pin it on GERD.
2. He said: "The Towland areas were deliberately inundated to stage a media campaign against GERD.
Toshka spillway
1. I said, Egypt has Toshka to route excess water.
2. He said: Toshka was closed. If it had been operating, the towland flooding would not have happened.
ICJ rhetoric
1. I said: The ICJ talk is theater. Timing physics will sink it.
2. He said: Ethiopia would welcome court scrutiny. Satellite images and timing prove the towland flood was engineered inside Egypt.
Sequence of events
1. I said: Sudan's flood alerts came first. Egypt's claims followed a few days later.
2. He said: Orders to flood the towland came one day after the Sudan flood began, to ride the media wave.
Where we differ
1. He blames GERD for the volume of flooding in Sudan. I disagree. GERD cuts flood crests, and Sudan's own alerts named both tributaries.
Where we agree
1. The towland flood was staged. Toshka was closed. The travel time math blows up the Oct 2 blame game.
Read my previous tweets:
Oct 7: https://t.co/Jj3J0ZOohl
Oct 6: https://t.co/p3Vx3Q79y3
#GERD #Nile #Egypt #Sudan #Hydrology #ICJ #Toshka #DataNotNoise #Receipts
Re GERD - my advice to Egypt. Drop the political drama and engage with Ethiopia professionally on technical issues. I know from experience that Ethiopia cannot be bullied and the more you push the more immovable they become. It’s time to accept today’s reality!
BREAKING 🇪🇹 "Ethiopia's Export Boom: 95% Surge to the US Amid Global Trade Turmoil According to A New Data from the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa."https://t.co/hl5gPVp3dR
@gemechuGemehu4 2005 comment: In 2005, Carter commented that it was a tragedy that Eritrea gained full independence, which cut Ethiopia off from the Red Sea and left it as the world's most populous landlocked nation.
@SirakBahlbi You’ll hand it over one way or another. Assab belongs to Ethiopia... the same logic that won Eritrea its independence applies here: Ethiopia will reclaim what is rightfully hers.
One thing is for sure: Ethiopia is in far better hands than it has been in the past 50 years, thanks to Abiy’s leadership skills. If that’s a hard pill to swallow for any of you, kerare tetubet.
Oil, gas, fertilizer, and electricity. These mega projects worth 10 billion USD herald an era of prosperity for Somali Region and Ethiopia. The sad paradox of people wallowing in poverty while sitting on wealth is about to become a lamentable history. Peace, thriving businesses, jobs, and mega projects replace yesterday’s conflict, trade blockages, rampant unemployment, and marginalization.
Sirak,
I used to think like you. But reality made one thing clear: Eritrea never wanted a strong, independent Ethiopia—it wanted a dependent Ethiopia it could exploit, just like it did in the 1990s when it controlled our coffee exports and trade routes.
Your argument is built on exaggeration, revisionism, and the delusion that Eritrea has ever acted as Ethiopia’s protector.
1. “Eritrea stood firm for a strong Ethiopia” — when, exactly?
After the fall of the Derg and after TPLF lost power, Eritrea looked out for itself—and that’s fine. Just don’t twist the past. Eritrea fought a destructive war with Ethiopia, sponsored armed groups, and stirred regional instability. That’s not “paying a price” for Ethiopian unity.
2. Tigray is not “effectively independent.”
The Pretoria agreement, federal authority in Mekelle, and the dismantling of TPLF’s military power make that claim false. Losing dominance isn’t the same as exiting Ethiopia.
3. Amhara, Oromo, and Somali regions are not pursuing secession.
Having grievances is normal in a federal state. The only region that actually fought for independence—with TPLF’s blessing while pretending to preserve Ethiopia—was Eritrea, not the regions you listed.
4. Eritrean commentators love predicting Ethiopia’s collapse while pretending concern.
They speak as if Ethiopia is theirs to rescue or sabotage. Let it be clear: Ethiopia’s internal affairs are not Eritrea’s project or responsibility.
5. This obsession with Abiy is shallow analysis.
Ethiopia did not begin with Abiy, and it will not end with him. One man is not the foundation or the undoing of our old state.
6. Eritrea should focus on its own house before lecturing Ethiopia.
Before asking what Eritrea will “pay” for Ethiopian unity, maybe consider:
•No constitution
•No elections
•Endless national service
•Mass youth exodus
•30 years of isolation
7. Ethiopia is not collapsing—TPLF collapsed. ( read my posting coming soon on TPLF insha Allah)
That’s the real problem for some Eritreans. The old order is gone, and they confuse that with national disintegration.
BOTTOM LINE:
Ethiopia does not need Eritrea to “pay a price” for its unity. No Eritrean pundit gets to determine Ethiopia’s future. Stop packaging wishful collapse scenarios as concern for “regional stability.