EXCLUSIVE: Jeff Probst slams prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket for allowing users to make trades about who won “Survivor” 50, saying that the companies are “incentivizing people to lie, cheat and steal to get ahead.”
“They have figured out a way to capitalize on [the show],” he tells Variety. “It doesn’t sit well with me as a human. I get it — they built a great business. They don’t care. I’m not happy about it.”
“Clearly, if 90% of the people are voting for somebody, there’s a leak. But to look at us, the producers, as though we have a problem, is the mirror pointing in the wrong direction,” he says. “[Prediction market platforms] are the ones with the problem, not us. We went and made our show in a vacuum, and we keep it very tightly contained, but if you are foolish and naive enough to not think that somebody might leak it, that’s your problem.”
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Pretaped reality TV shows like #Survivor are facing an unforeseen problem: Prediction markets are spoiling their endings.
• #Survivor50 winner Aubry Bracco was the overwhelming favorite on Kalshi six weeks before the Feb. 25 season premiere (by Jan. 28, she had jumped to 83%)
• Kalshi users also spoiled the winners of “Masked Singer” and “Next Level Chef” three months early
• Active discussions are taking place at Paramount about insider trading on prediction markets, according to one source
• Execs at Kalshi claim traders receive intel from spoilers already circulating online
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Jonathan is saying losing Survivor 50 hurt so bad, because he knows he played a better Survivor game than Aubry. He says “if that’s a jury, then I’m confused” #survivor50
Update: we continue to investigate insider trading in Survivor markets, but the below still holds true: so far, no traders with large positions seem to have a relationship to the show or to the network. Thousands of traders took early positions consistent with the outcome, likely because of public rumors. And public rumors don't equal insider information.
PS—as a longtime Survivor fan, big congrats to Aubry. Well-deserved win.