Giovanni Franchi

Engineer, avid reader, and entrepreneur: when I have some money I buy great businesses at attractive prices. Profile photo: Sir Isaac Newton and me!

[Giovanni Franchi @giovfranchi]

I have purchased a new rule breaker, Aixtron SE $AIXA:

For what is worth the 5 years scenarios for $AIXA according to ChatGPT are the following:
1) Bear case, -50%, probability 25%
2) Base case, 1.5-2x, probability 45%
3) Bull case, 3-4x, probability 23%
4) Super bull case, 8x, probability 7%

[Giovanni Franchi @giovfranchi]

Recommended reading: “Money and Me - HOW TO MAKE YOUR FINANCES WORK HARDER FOR YOU AND YOUR FAMILY” by Jonathan Clements

[Giovanni Franchi @giovfranchi]

I have purchased a new rule breaker, Aixtron SE $AIXA:

For what is worth the 5 years scenarios for $AIXA according to ChatGPT are the following:
1) Bear case, -50%, probability 25%
2) Base case, 1.5-2x, probability 45%
3) Bull case, 3-4x, probability 23%
4) Super bull case, 8x, probability 7%

[Giovanni Franchi @giovfranchi]

1) After putting all new cash into equities last November and December, I have kept all new funds in cash and haven’t bought anything since the end of last year.

[Giovanni Franchi @giovfranchi]

I have purchased a new rule breaker, Amprius Technologies $AMPX:

For what is worth the 5 years scenarios for $AMPX according to ChatGPT are the following:
1) Bear case, -50%, probability 30%
2) Base case, 1.5-2x, probability 40%
3) Bull case, 3-4x, probability 20%
4) Super bull case, 8x, probability 10%

[Giovanni Franchi @giovfranchi]

Recommended reading: “THE FAMILY OFFICE - A COMPREHENSIVE GUIDE FOR ADVISERS, PRACTITIONERS, AND STUDENTS” by WILLIAM I. WOODSON AND EDWARD V. MARSHALL

[Giovanni Franchi @giovfranchi]

Recommended reading: “THE STOIC CAPITALIST - ADVICE FOR THE EXCEPTIONAL AMBITIOUS” by ROBERT ROSENKRANZ

[Giovanni Franchi @giovfranchi]

Recommended reading: “CONSCIOUS CAPITALISM - LIBERATING THE HEROIC SPIRIT OF BUSINESS” by JOHN MACKEY and RAJ SISODIA

[Giovanni Franchi @giovfranchi]

No. I perform an expectations analysis and if the price doesn’t already implies perfection, I invest as soon as possible and then let them run. I am putting together a portfolio of 40 rule breakers investing 0.4% of capital in each. A sort of “index of rule breakers” that, when completed, will weigh circa 16% of my total portfolio. Then I will simply keep upgrading it: whenever I find a new rule breaker, I’ll compare it to the worst performer already inside this basket, and if I judge it to be a better company I’ll sell the worst performer and replace it with the new rule breaker.