Giulia 🇮🇹

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₿ Crypto • 📉 Indici • 📐 Price Action

[Giulia 🇮🇹 @Giulia_Beletta]

$BTC Weekly Outlook (Aug 16th)

Keeping it simple: price action and key levels.

BTC continues to show weakness after repeatedly failing to establish acceptance above the $65.5K area.

On the 4H, the picture is even clearer. Price broke down from the $63.9K–$65.3K range and has failed to reclaim the breakdown area. We’re now trading below the 4H moving averages, with rallies continuing to form lower highs.

Going into next week, these are the levels I’m watching:

• $65.5K — main resistance. A sustained reclaim here would make me reassess the broader bearish thesis.
• $63.5K–$63.9K — former 4H support and now the first important reclaim area.
• $62.5K–$62.8K — local support.
• $60K — major downside area if the current structure continues to break down.

Bull case: BTC reclaims $63.5K–$63.9K and establishes acceptance back inside the former range. That would put $65.3K–$65.5K back in play. Reclaiming that area would materially change the structure.

Bear case: BTC fails to reclaim the broken 4H range and loses $62.5K–$62.8K. In that scenario, I’m looking toward $60K as the next major area of interest.

My bias remains bearish until price proves otherwise.

As long as BTC remains below the broken 4H structure, I’m more interested in selling weak rallies than chasing longs.

No cycle dates. No predetermined bottom. If price reclaims the structure, the thesis changes.

Price first. Narrative second.

#Btc #Crypto

[Giulia 🇮🇹 @Giulia_Beletta]

@omzcharts You should mention the possible werkly hidden bearish divergence. Confirmed if we close red this week.

[Giulia 🇮🇹 @Giulia_Beletta]

👀

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

WELLS FARGO NOW SEES FED HIKES

Wells Fargo Investment Institute now expects the Fed to raise rates by 25 bps in 2026, reversing its previous forecast for no change.

It also expects another 25-bp hike in 2027, taking the federal funds rate to 4.00%–4.25%.

The shift marks a more hawkish outlook for U.S. monetary policy over the next 18 months.

[Giulia 🇮🇹 @Giulia_Beletta]

$BTC Weekly Outlook (Aug 16th)

Keeping it simple: price action and key levels.

BTC continues to show weakness after repeatedly failing to establish acceptance above the $65.5K area.

On the 4H, the picture is even clearer. Price broke down from the $63.9K–$65.3K range and has failed to reclaim the breakdown area. We’re now trading below the 4H moving averages, with rallies continuing to form lower highs.

Going into next week, these are the levels I’m watching:

• $65.5K — main resistance. A sustained reclaim here would make me reassess the broader bearish thesis.
• $63.5K–$63.9K — former 4H support and now the first important reclaim area.
• $62.5K–$62.8K — local support.
• $60K — major downside area if the current structure continues to break down.

Bull case: BTC reclaims $63.5K–$63.9K and establishes acceptance back inside the former range. That would put $65.3K–$65.5K back in play. Reclaiming that area would materially change the structure.

Bear case: BTC fails to reclaim the broken 4H range and loses $62.5K–$62.8K. In that scenario, I’m looking toward $60K as the next major area of interest.

My bias remains bearish until price proves otherwise.

As long as BTC remains below the broken 4H structure, I’m more interested in selling weak rallies than chasing longs.

No cycle dates. No predetermined bottom. If price reclaims the structure, the thesis changes.

Price first. Narrative second.

#Btc #Crypto

[Giulia 🇮🇹 @Giulia_Beletta]

$BTC plan for the week 📊

Just my trading idea 💁‍♀️

HTF structure still keeps me bearish, so I’m more interested in selling rallies than chasing downside.

🎯 Current short asks
• $64.2K 1/3
• $64.9K 1/3
• $65.4K 1/3

🛑 Invalidation
4H close above $65.5K
Hard SL around $65.85K

A reclaim of $65.5K doesn’t automatically make me bullish.

There’s still major HTF resistance around $66.2K and $67.2K, so I’d rather reassess there than buy straight into overhead resistance.

On the downside, $62.3K–$62.5K is the key area. 👀

If BTC breaks below it, I’m not chasing the breakdown. I’d rather wait for the retest:

• Failed reclaim of $62.3K–$62.5K → potential short
• Reclaim back above $62.5K → potential failed-breakdown long
• Long invalidation → 4H close below $62.3K

Monday should give us the first important range of the week. From there, I’ll watch how Tuesday and Wednesday interact with Monday’s high and low.

Have the scenarios ready before price gets there.

#Crypto #Trading #Bitcoin

[Giulia 🇮🇹 @Giulia_Beletta]

$BTC plan for the week 📊

Just my trading idea 💁‍♀️

HTF structure still keeps me bearish, so I’m more interested in selling rallies than chasing downside.

🎯 Current short asks
• $64.2K 1/3
• $64.9K 1/3
• $65.4K 1/3

🛑 Invalidation
4H close above $65.5K
Hard SL around $65.85K

A reclaim of $65.5K doesn’t automatically make me bullish.

There’s still major HTF resistance around $66.2K and $67.2K, so I’d rather reassess there than buy straight into overhead resistance.

On the downside, $62.3K–$62.5K is the key area. 👀

If BTC breaks below it, I’m not chasing the breakdown. I’d rather wait for the retest:

• Failed reclaim of $62.3K–$62.5K → potential short
• Reclaim back above $62.5K → potential failed-breakdown long
• Long invalidation → 4H close below $62.3K

Monday should give us the first important range of the week. From there, I’ll watch how Tuesday and Wednesday interact with Monday’s high and low.

Have the scenarios ready before price gets there.

#Crypto #Trading #Bitcoin

[Giulia 🇮🇹 @Giulia_Beletta]

$BTC Weekly Outlook (Aug 16th)

Keeping it simple: price action and key levels.

BTC continues to show weakness after repeatedly failing to establish acceptance above the $65.5K area.

On the 4H, the picture is even clearer. Price broke down from the $63.9K–$65.3K range and has failed to reclaim the breakdown area. We’re now trading below the 4H moving averages, with rallies continuing to form lower highs.

Going into next week, these are the levels I’m watching:

• $65.5K — main resistance. A sustained reclaim here would make me reassess the broader bearish thesis.
• $63.5K–$63.9K — former 4H support and now the first important reclaim area.
• $62.5K–$62.8K — local support.
• $60K — major downside area if the current structure continues to break down.

Bull case: BTC reclaims $63.5K–$63.9K and establishes acceptance back inside the former range. That would put $65.3K–$65.5K back in play. Reclaiming that area would materially change the structure.

Bear case: BTC fails to reclaim the broken 4H range and loses $62.5K–$62.8K. In that scenario, I’m looking toward $60K as the next major area of interest.

My bias remains bearish until price proves otherwise.

As long as BTC remains below the broken 4H structure, I’m more interested in selling weak rallies than chasing longs.

No cycle dates. No predetermined bottom. If price reclaims the structure, the thesis changes.

Price first. Narrative second.

#Btc #Crypto

[Giulia 🇮🇹 @Giulia_Beletta]

@investing2026 @CryptoMichNL @avax Sell sell sell

[Giulia 🇮🇹 @Giulia_Beletta]

@KillaXBT Killa Post 88: Why the bottom is in or close

[Giulia 🇮🇹 @Giulia_Beletta]

Calling this “substantial altcoin strength” is a stretch.

TOTAL2 is still structurally weak and trading below major resistance, while ETH/BTC is merely bouncing into its weekly EMAs after years of underperformance.

A relief bounce ≠ a trend change.

Show me ETH/BTC reclaiming 0.032+ and TOTAL2 reclaiming its broken HTF structure, then we can talk about altcoin strength. Until then, this is just relative outperformance on a very selective timeframe.

[Giulia 🇮🇹 @Giulia_Beletta]

48–52K as an MVRV target is fair. What I don’t buy is the ‘1.5 months left’ part. The 4-year cycle can be useful context, but treating it like an expiry date is way too deterministic. If HTF structure and macro deteriorate in November or December, BTC doesn’t suddenly become incapable of trading 48–52K.

[Giulia 🇮🇹 @Giulia_Beletta]

@cryptokans Its called luck. The other 2500 coins are slrrady down 90%

[Giulia 🇮🇹 @Giulia_Beletta]

@CryptoMichNL It takes a few years of experience to recognize when the move is more likely to be down.

[Giulia 🇮🇹 @Giulia_Beletta]

My thoughts on bitcoin:native

[Giulia 🇮🇹 @Giulia_Beletta]

@omzcharts Fair point. I’m just watching whether BTC can actually get acceptance above 64.7–65.5k. So far the trendline break hasn’t produced much follow-through, while the daily still looks like a lower high to me. If price starts accepting above that zone, I’ll happily reassess.

[Giulia 🇮🇹 @Giulia_Beletta]

@crypto_care777 @trader_koala You must be new here

[Giulia 🇮🇹 @Giulia_Beletta]

Good morning ☀️

Bitcoin looking weak.
Thursday nuke?

#happyvibes #EclipseEspaña #eclips

[Giulia 🇮🇹 @Giulia_Beletta]

I think this is too deterministic.

A less overheated bull market does not automatically imply a less severe bear market. The depth of the next drawdown will depend far more on liquidity, macro conditions, positioning, ETF flows and how price reacts around key HTF levels.

The real question isn’t whether this cycle “deserves” an extreme bear.

It’s whether the market corrects mainly through price, time, or both.

[Giulia 🇮🇹 @Giulia_Beletta]

I think this is too deterministic.

A less overheated bull market does not automatically imply a less severe bear market. The depth of the next drawdown will depend far more on liquidity, macro conditions, positioning, ETF flows and how price reacts around key HTF levels.

The real question isn’t whether this cycle “deserves” an extreme bear.

It’s whether the market corrects mainly through price, time, or both.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Gonna need more diplomatic optimism from Qatar and Pakistan