GLAFPOL

GLAFPOL is a research and analytical firm.
We unravel fragility with a politics-first approach and unparalleled data analytics.

[GLAFPOL @Glafpol]

NEW ANALYSIS: Our September briefing delves into Somalia’s ambitious electoral reforms and the significant political, structural, and security challenges they face. Can this bold shift from a clan-based system to direct elections reshape governance or deepen divides? 1/6

https://t.co/mkXeNIgyKa

[GLAFPOL @Glafpol]

Join us for the launch of the 2026 Somali Stability Index report.

Developed by GLAFPOL, Somali Stability Index provides a new data-driven framework for assessing the political and governance conditions shaping stability across Somalia.

Register here: https://t.co/MxDhkBuyf6

[GLAFPOL @Glafpol]

Full analysis in the brief:

https://t.co/rZVbfIGSdn

[GLAFPOL @Glafpol]

#NEW #ANALYSIS: Somalia is entering a more volatile phase as disputes between the federal government and several Federal Member States deepen and take on a more confrontational form, with South West State now emerging as a key flashpoint. A thread 🧵

https://t.co/rZVbfIGSdn

[GLAFPOL @Glafpol]

While instability remains localized in the immediate term, escalation becomes more likely and less containable if federal involvement deepens, opposition mobilization becomes more coordinated, and electoral disputes trigger parallel processes.

[GLAFPOL @Glafpol]

We’re #hiring a short-term Consultant Statistician to lead the statistical design and analysis of an innovative, multi-dimensional governance index. You’ll take the lead on survey design, scoring methodologies, and statistical analysis, and work closely with our Consortium Partners.

This is a 3-month consultancy with potential for extension based on performance and project funding.

More info & how to apply: https://t.co/5SwyrXo5IE

[Yasin Ahmed Ismail @YasinAhIsmail]

Had a chat with @agmutambo for this @NationAfrica piece, which also references @Glafpol’s recently published briefing on Somalia’s electoral changes.

Insights from @JustAwHirsi and @FaroleJr are also featured.

https://t.co/x8TgEI9P7B

[GLAFPOL @Glafpol]

We're excited to launch GLAFPOL's cutting-edge analytical platform this week! Our comprehensive database tracks political, social, and security events across Somalia, providing actionable insights and predictive analysis for informed decision-making. With data going back to 2020, you can access the platform at https://t.co/mYmNcw25MO

If you're interested in getting an account, reach out to us via email: [email protected].

#DataDriven #Fragility

[GLAFPOL @Glafpol]

Read our detailed report and explore the path forward here:

https://t.co/I4s2d90EM8

[GLAFPOL @Glafpol]

NEW ANALYSIS: Our September briefing delves into Somalia’s ambitious electoral reforms and the significant political, structural, and security challenges they face. Can this bold shift from a clan-based system to direct elections reshape governance or deepen divides? 1/6

https://t.co/mkXeNIgyKa

[GLAFPOL @Glafpol]

Our analysis dives deeper into these critical questions, examining the drivers and political motivations behind the reforms, the risks of political division, and whether #Somalia can navigate these challenges to achieve a more democratic governance structure. 6/6