Martin

Quantitative financial economics

[Martin @globalmarketrep]

@Lv10noob @LynAldenContact @dnelson58 @saifedean You learned that RE is unproductive. Baumschule?

[Martin @globalmarketrep]

@Lv10noob @LynAldenContact @dnelson58 @saifedean Same goes for cars or machinery, you would not call these unproductive. I think for classifying productive vs unproductive we need to look on industry level.

[Martin @globalmarketrep]

@Lv10noob @LynAldenContact @dnelson58 @saifedean How is real estate unproductive?

[Martin @globalmarketrep]

@AuctionShackIO So I wanted to give it a try and then I couldn't because I'm on Android.

[Martin @globalmarketrep]

@kamikazecash @JRAzeltine @unusual_whales It's not that simple, Mikey. The one with the less elastic supply or demand is going to pay the majority. That's probably US and US consumers in the short term but in the medium term China will lose more.

[Martin @globalmarketrep]

@nntaleb Don't trust your dentist $$$

[Spencer Hakimian @SpencerHakimian]

NASDAQ call volume spiked minutes before the 90 day tariff pause was announced.

Not a good look at all.

[Martin @globalmarketrep]

Poland, Greece, Australia, Thailand are the big winners of today's tariff "reduction".

[Martin @globalmarketrep]

symbol2025
$IDX-19.6%
$THD-15.2%
$EWT-13.5%
$EWM-9.7%
$ENZL-8.5%
$TUR-8.4%
$EDEN-7.7%
$ARGT-7.3%
$EUSA-5.7%
$EWH-5.2%
$EIS-4.4%
$EWA-4.4%
$PIN-4.2%
$QAT-2.0%
$EWC-1.9%
$EIRL-1.8%
$KSA-1.6%
$EWJ-1.1%
$VNM-0.2%
$UAE0.0%
$EPHE+0.5%
$GXC+0.9%
$EWS+1.8%
$EWN+3.5%
$EWU+3.6%
$EWK+4.1%
$EPU+4.7%
$EWY+4.7%
$EZA+5.6%
$EWD+6.9%
$NORW+7.5%
$EFNL+7.5%
$EWQ+7.6%
$EWL+8.2%
$EWZ+9.8%
$EWW+10.8%
$EWI+11.8%
$ECH+12.8%
$EWG+13.8%
$GXG+14.7%
$GREK+15.6%
$EWO+15.7%
$EWP+19.3%
$EPOL+32.7%

[Martin @globalmarketrep]

US share of imports from China vs total imports: 16.5%

China share of exports to the US vs total exports: 14.7%

[Martin @globalmarketrep]

@elisdee_one @ContrarianinKor @elonmusk As a kid I discovered that you can draw with little stones.

[Martin @globalmarketrep]

@WithOnlyOption @GlobeEyeNews So the world is depending on China for buying processed goods that contain these rare earths. Or in econ wording: supply elasticity engineering.

[Martin @globalmarketrep]

@LynAldenContact Sell-off driven by foreign investors plus domestic ask themselves why holding bonds if inflation rises.

[Martin @globalmarketrep]

@WOLF_Financial Later you can brag about nominal returns. Money is fake.

[Martin @globalmarketrep]

@zplusk_ @_chrismus @chrislein7 @marcogiglio @nntaleb Can't believe that someone scrolling x for more than 5 minutes hasn't gotten the memo.

[Martin @globalmarketrep]

@carebearmeh @BradRTorgersen Cambodia has a trade weighted average tariff of 7.1% on imports from the US. WTO data.

[ian bremmer @ianbremmer]

this is…incredibly stupid

eu: $235.6bn surplus, $605.8bn exports, 235.6/605.8 = 39% claimed tariffs charged

indonesia: $17.9bn surplus, $28.1bn exports, 17.9/28.1 = 64% claimed tariffs charged

india: $45.7bn surplus, $87.4bn exports, 45.7/87.4 = 52% claimed tariffs charged

vietnam: $123.5bn surplus, $136.6 exports, 123.5/136.6 = 90% claimed tariffs charged

which explains why the “tariffs charged to the usa” column looked made up.

[Martin @globalmarketrep]

@MMikeMMa @levered_cd_arb @TheStalwart And counter tariff comes from a random number generator? I really don't understand.

[Martin @globalmarketrep]

So many opinions about tariffs and no one seems to understand what is tought in first semester economics.

[Martin @globalmarketrep]

Restrictions lead to an inefficient market. Only free markets can be efficient.

Iowa Electronic Markets vs Polymarket

#predictionmarket @Polymarket