Graeme Mitchell

Just an average mid life Sask guy. Take it, leave it, I dont care.

[Graeme Mitchell @gmitch006]

@JasminLaine Double masking at work due to "policy"

[Graeme Mitchell @gmitch006]

@Stellar_Rippler @grok is this post true?

[Graeme Mitchell @gmitch006]

@leadlagreport

[Graeme Mitchell @gmitch006]

@priyaee Smoke show

[Graeme Mitchell @gmitch006]

@CBSNews No one watches you.

Have a great day.

[Graeme Mitchell @gmitch006]

@leadlagreport Canada. Used to be awesome. Now I am the hamster.

[Graeme Mitchell @gmitch006]

Absolute GOLD

[Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport]

Nobody wants to talk about it, but the single most important macro indicator of the last 40 years is not the yield curve, not the VIX, not even the DXY.

It is the hamster wheel.

Let me explain.

A hamster on a wheel runs at maximum velocity, expends infinite energy, generates zero forward progress, and remains convinced he is going somewhere important. This is not a rodent. This is the S&P 500 from 2021 to 2024.

The hamster does not know he is in a cage. The cage is priced in. The cage is the Fed.

Now. Japan.

Japan has been running the largest hamster wheel experiment in monetary history since 1990. They have kept rates at zero for so long that an entire generation of Japanese hamsters has been born, lived, and died without ever experiencing a positive real yield. The BOJ is not a central bank. The BOJ is a pet store owner who forgot which cage he was supposed to clean.

The yen carry trade is literally a hamster smuggling operation. You borrow the hamster (yen) in Tokyo for free, put him on a plane to America, sell him for tech stocks, and pray Kuroda’s ghost doesn’t wake up and demand the hamster back. When he does wake up — August 2024, anyone? — every hedge fund on earth simultaneously discovers their hamster is now worth 12% more and their Nvidia calls are on fire.
This is called “risk-off.” It is actually just hamster repatriation.

Here is where lead-lag comes in.

The Japanese hamster ALWAYS moves first. He is the world’s smallest, fluffiest leading indicator. When the yen strengthens, hamsters everywhere feel it in their tiny bones. Retail hamsters in Robinhood accounts start twitching. Crypto hamsters go quiet. The Magnificent Seven hamsters, who have been running so hard their little legs are a blur, suddenly notice the wheel is squeaking.

The wheel is always squeaking. The wheel has been squeaking since 2008. We just turned the music up.

People ask me: Michael, what’s the trade?
The trade, my friends, is to be the guy who OWNS the pet store. Not the hamster. Not the wheel. The store. That’s private equity. That’s Blackstone. That’s why Japan keeps buying JGBs — they are not investors, they are landlords collecting rent from 126 million very polite hamsters who have agreed, culturally, to never complain about the wheel.

Meanwhile in America we have decided the solution to our hamster problem is more hamsters. More ETFs. More 0DTE. More leveraged single-stock products that let you get 3x exposure to one specific hamster named Elon.

I have been screaming into the void about this for a decade. The void, it turns out, was a hamster.

In conclusion:
•Utilities are outperforming. The hamster is tired.
•Lumber/gold is rolling over. The hamster smells smoke.
•The yen is at 158. The hamster has booked a one-way flight to Narita.
•Everyone is bullish. The hamster is short.
Be the hamster who reads the Lead-Lag Report.

Not financial advice. Definitely hamster advice.

🐹🇯🇵📉

[Graeme Mitchell @gmitch006]

@terencecrawford You're a garbage human being.

[Graeme Mitchell @gmitch006]

@TheNotoriousMMA Good luck. Comeback or no comeback. Enjoy your family and life.
Peace dude.

[Graeme Mitchell @gmitch006]

@JasminLaine Yep

[Graeme Mitchell @gmitch006]

@ufc @UFCFightPass Please fix your PPV stream. Stuttering, blurry. And no, my internet is fine. #UFC329

[Graeme Mitchell @gmitch006]

@grok @JasminLaine @EvanLSolomon @grok and fair sentences for any and all, regardless of ethnicity, religion or possibly even immigration status would be fair? There seems to be disparity at the moment.

[Graeme Mitchell @gmitch006]

@grok @JasminLaine @EvanLSolomon @grok So, if Canada actually locked this small percentage up, locked up any violent crime commited the first time, and was generally harder on crime, Canada would be safer place?

[Graeme Mitchell @gmitch006]

@JasminLaine @EvanLSolomon @grok @grok how about the general rise in violent crime period, along with how many of those commiting offenses are repeat offenders over the last 10 years?

[Graeme Mitchell @gmitch006]

And anyone else of concern....

[Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport]

The fact that every intervention by the BoJ to save the Yen is violently failing should scare the ever living shit out of your mother, her mistress, your barber’s dog walker’s best friend, your dentist’s ex-husband’s pickleball partner, the guy who sold you a mattress in 2017 and still texts you about extended warranties, your priest’s Robinhood account, your therapist’s therapist, the lady at the DMV who sighs every time you approach the counter, your high school gym teacher who peaked in 1986, the raccoon that lives behind your neighbor’s shed, your wife’s yoga instructor’s CrossFit boyfriend’s life coach, the kid who bagged your groceries last Tuesday, your cardiologist’s golf swing, the AI chatbot that keeps trying to sell you boat insurance, your accountant’s mistress’s accountant, the ghost of your childhood goldfish, your Uber driver who has opinions about the Fed, your wife’s book club’s wine sommelier, the guy at the gym who never re-racks his weights, your mailman’s parrot, the Peloton instructor screaming at you about your “why,” your mother-in-law’s hairdresser’s psychic, the barista who spells your name wrong every single time, your dog’s Instagram followers, the algorithm that decides what shows up on your For You page, your colonoscopist’s Wi-Fi password, every guy named Chad who works in private equity, your wife’s first boyfriend who’s now somehow a thought leader on LinkedIn, the squirrel that’s been casing your bird feeder for three months, your podcast editor’s emotional support iguana, the HOA president who measures your grass with a ruler, your sister’s astrologer’s tax preparer, every influencer doing a “day in my life” video at 4:30am, the guy who invented those tiny shampoo bottles in hotels, your dermatologist’s tanning bed habit, your child’s imaginary friend’s lawyer, the entire population of people who still unironically use the word “synergy,” your wife’s Pilates instructor’s sourdough starter, the bartender who remembers your order but not your name, your podiatrist’s foot fetish forum, the guy who scammed your grandmother out of $40 on Facebook Marketplace, every CNBC anchor pretending they understand bond convexity, your barber’s barber’s barber (it’s barbers all the way down), the woman in HR who flagged your Slack emoji as “concerning,” your wife’s hot yoga instructor’s ayahuasca shaman, the algorithm running your 401(k) target date fund, every guy in a Patagonia vest pitching a SPAC, your dog’s veterinary acupuncturist, the kid who eats glue in your child’s class, your dad’s third wife’s cat’s groomer, every person who says “let’s circle back,” the Geek Squad technician who’s seen your browser history, your wife’s college roommate’s husband’s mistress’s pottery teacher, the entire silent generation watching this unfold while clutching their savings bonds, and finally, deeply, profoundly — yourself, because deep down you know none of these people understand what’s coming either.

[Graeme Mitchell @gmitch006]

@rebecca_asmr

[Graeme Mitchell @gmitch006]

@TheBuckYouWill @IfindRetards problem solved.

[Graeme Mitchell @gmitch006]

@jasminlaine @MarkJCarney @gregorrobertson It'll be affordable to Brookefield when the govt sells it to them for pennies on the dollar.

[Graeme Mitchell @gmitch006]

@ChaelSonnen If YOU were the President of the United States, what would be your three biggest priorities?

[Graeme Mitchell @gmitch006]

And there you have it. Just like so many said, and were laughed at, mocked, shamed and ridiculed for as being conspiracy loons.
Have a great day.

[DNI Tulsi Gabbard @DNIGabbard]

Today, on my final day as Director of National Intelligence, I’m releasing never-before-seen communications and documents exposing how Dr. Fauci provided millions in US taxpayer dollars to fund dangerous gain-of-function research at the Wuhan lab, worked with politicized elements within the Intelligence Community to suppress the truth about his actions and hide the virus’ lab-leak origins, and lied to Congress while under oath in 2024. It’s time you know the truth.

https://t.co/3YJSstB7d4