GOID

[0xSammy @0xSammy]

Ok, I failed and I'm sidelined on stablecoins.

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[GOID @go__id]

@mert that’s Munch bro

[CryptoAmsterdam @damskotrades]

How I'm Betting on Altcoins from Here

(And how NOT to)

1. Bitcoin & Total Altcoin Market Cap
2. How People Got Burned
3. Altcoin Structures & What I'm Looking For

1. Bitcoin & Total Altcoin Market Cap

First, I have a higher time frame bias, but I won’t dive into that here to keep it short. Simply put, I believe we’ll trade higher later in the cycle, no matter the short or medium-term moves.

This thread is about how I plan to find entries using medium-time frame price structures on Bitcoin, total altcoin market cap, and altcoin charts.

We can see that we formed a local range if we look at higher time frame charts for Bitcoin and the total altcoin market cap. The swing high and low (blue lines) look similar to how Bitcoin built a local range below the macro range high resistance in 2024.

In a range, you always assume more ranging until proven otherwise.

So, right now we have:

Higher time frame bias: Higher later this cycle.
Medium time frame bias: Ranging.
Lower time frame bias: I don't know and don't want to bet on it.

2. How people got burned:
It's pretty obvious, but still, most people still do it.
This is where most got burned in Bitcoin’s 2024 range—bull chop did its job. People turned super bullish, thinking the move was a breakout, buying range high resistance. Then, they flipped bearish at the range low, sold for a loss, and got chopped up again.

Buying green/high, selling low/panic.

Trading on emotions.

If you did not buy the ultimate panic at the range lows, do not chase days or weeks of green into the higher part of the range. If you are scared to miss out, have a range-high break-out trigger set in place. For me this would be acceptance above the range high. A lot of Altcoins will offer reclaim trigger opportunities anyway.

Keeping it simple:
> If you want to accumulate, look for your spot entries slowly over time when prices are at or spiking below the range low support, and everyone is panicking and screaming zero
> If you want to derisk, do so at the range high resistance when everyone is bullish.

I am interested in Altcoin trades at the range low, not necessarily derisking a lot at the range high as I already have been taking profit and did so the initial time it hit this + I think we'll trade higher later this cycle.

More about this in my profit-taking plan from November last year.

If the range low fails and we find acceptance below, I'm becoming mid-term-cautious again and will wait until we find a bottom lower. I will post a new thread with a new plan IF this is the case.

3. Altcoin Structures & What I'm Looking For

'Only a couple of Altcoin sectors did well this year'

It is a complaint you often hear this cycle. I try to position myself in the right sectors by focusing on strength.

The market shows and will continue to show its hands early. It will show you where the attention (and money inflow) is at by early outperformers.

Examples: (facts)
- SOL outperformance 2023/2024
- Early meme coin outperformance this cycle
- AI tokens taking of 2023/early 2024
- AI agents later 2024/early 2025

Or thinking logically, which is a bit more risky, but: (my thoughts)
- If ETHBTC bottoms -> DeFi might have its period (thinking about AAVE/UNI, etc)
- If the RWA shills continue or if influential people start to tokenizer worldly things -> RWA
- BNB meme run if CZ continues to push it + $TST run -> Might spark some of the more significant meme tokens on BNB (CAT comes to mind)

So, rather than simply thinking about what I think is cool or deserves to go higher, I look for signs and try to position in what the market thinks should go higher.

A major mistake of many people in this cycle is that they don't like memes or think it's trash and ignore them, or they do not buy Solana because it's centralized or because they don't relate to the culture or users. They put their opinion over the market's opinion (the early outperformance signs)

Altcoin structures
Immediately after a dump, many are often bullish and looking to buy the dip. They correctly identify a key level and buy themselves in. Well done so far, but the problem is that OFTEN (read often, not always), the recovery of these savage down moves is not instantly. They often get followed up by time-based capitulation. On the other hand, people expect full recovery once they press the buy-in button, just a human nature thing I guess, expecting immediate action followed by your action.

Time-based capitulation is often the cause of more people flipping bearish at a potential bottom than the actual downside.

PopCat, for example, and again, it doesn't need to happen, but it often does form a mini cycle stage 3 sideways after such a move down.

Because of the range Bitcoin and the total 3 (total altcoin market cap) are in a range + a lot of Altcoin have done savage down moves, I tend to lean to more sideways/slight potential down moves before recovery. I'll be looking for either sweeps of the blue stage 3 sideways range or a reclaim of the range above.

Again, PopCat as an example -> wait for the range to form and potential triggers to get in:

1. Wait for a sweep and reclaim (invalidation acceptance back below the local low)
2. Wait for a reclaim of the range above.

(I just painted the structure on popcat, don't mind the actual prices or time my squiggly hits there; it's an example)

I'm not betting on how long it will take or when exactly we'll start our next leg up or bottomed. I'm not trying to predict tomorrow's prices or next week's, but just based on my current medium time frame view, I slowly position myself for my higher time frame bias.

Recent Market Overview: https://t.co/GvITH61M5T
Older Profit-Taking posts:
https://t.co/SfgudasJxh
https://t.co/2hDp8kQ0Gj
Using the cycle structure: (mentioned above)
https://t.co/IUi4BacDxE

If you enjoyed or found this helpful or have feedback/suggestions, I would love to hear them in the comments, and feel free to retweet the post!

Amsterdam 🫡

[M i K E ( elf ) @theMikeElf]

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[GOID @go__id]

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[GOID @go__id]

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[GOID @go__id]

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[Bobu the Bean Farmer @BobuBeanFarmer]

The last time I took a red bean …I saw this woman …the white rabbit. She was leading me to some gate, but then I fell asleep ⛩

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[Azuki @Azuki]

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