Pedro Cardebar

[Pedro Cardebar @gobbi_ee]

@timdug the best indicator is market structure and backwardation is minimal, it did however tried to flip a month ago but could not hold, may be it is time now...

[Pedro Cardebar @gobbi_ee]

@AyusoValue They are just talking their books/baseline scenario. The slump in their profits vs. previous record (22-24) years is real, it is harder and harder to make money. It is normal for inventories to go down and up. It has been like that forever. There zero "super" in the glut.

[Pedro Cardebar @gobbi_ee]

@timdug having said that, oil inventories cant hold at the lower levels of the bandwidth forever, it is normal for them to bounce back towards, say middle. but it is not a super glut!

[Pedro Cardebar @gobbi_ee]

@timdug The fact that some nations (China) globally are storing more crude vs previously is the reflection of energy security first. Oil at sea growing due to longer freight routes, demand is (still) also growing in 2025.

[Pedro Cardebar @gobbi_ee]

@timdug I hope they are trying to build at least something, because their SPR was depleted with various releases during last few years. Inv. are below last year levels, below '23 levels, below 5 year average and on the lower scale of the 5 year bandwidth, if comparing apples to apples.

[Pedro Cardebar @gobbi_ee]

API. 10/15. Crude stocks rose by 7.36 million barrels in the week ended October 10 and gasoline inventories increased by 2.99 million barrels, while distillate inventories fell by 4.79 million barrels from a week earlier. #OOTT

[Pedro Cardebar @gobbi_ee]

@Amalteya3000 Domestic shale producers in US can drill-baby-drill all they can, but they also will not be profitable, if price of energy is below a certain break-even cost, which is only going up, due to inflated cost and time constraints.

[Pedro Cardebar @gobbi_ee]

@Amalteya3000 Price of crudeoil does not solely depend on russian sanctions. It can go up without them. There could be more sanctions against Venezuela and/or Iran or whoever it may be next. Opec would not overproduce above cuts/quotas unless there is an internal price-war inside Opec+.