I usually make fun of sellside, but Rosenblatt has pretty goated channel checks on optical names, and their reports are one of the few I like talking about.
$AAOI, $LITE, $SIVE, and the laser party has started to recover around the est. timing windows.
eg. last month: "Multiple short sellers told them they will likely close their positions... late July and early August".
They might have missed that they believed $AMD would be $AAOI's first CPO customer... since AAOI said they would be missing from first-gen CPO (maybe future gen?)
But lot of their talking points about China CPO laser positioning (eg. 2-3 years behind) got corroborated word-for-word from AAOI earnings today.
Today I'm writing a weekend guide on how to do DD when shorting $NBIS:
First, you look at hyperscaler earnings for AI cloud read through:
> $GOOGL: reports record AI cloud demand + backlog + margin increases from earnings
> $AMZN: reports record AI Cloud demand + backlog + margin increases from earnings
> $META: reports higher than expected prices for available capacity from earnings.
Now, time to look at Nebius:
-> $NBIS: Growing hundreds of percent to $7-9B ARR by Q4. Growing margins, and guided 4GW+ contracted power.
-> Sees Uber/Waymo splitting, putting more focus on Avride
-> Sees Clickhouse growing rapidly every quarter.
Okay looks bad! But next, you need a hedge?
-> Wow! A $NIKE brand executive, after the stock dropped 75% over the past 5 years, went to $LULU to save that brand next? Lululemon seems good.
Conclusion: Short Nebius and go long on $LULU
@krakenfx Two crypto titans with combined billions fighting over divorce papers by offering a $1B bet. Meanwhile, the rest of us are trying to take this industry seriously. Embarrassing as fuck.
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