Goofy Oat

[Rod Vg @rorro_villa]

@MacroAlf

[Goofy Oat @GoofyOat]

@glen_parnell @jim_b4_the_rugs 🤷 idk. look at the equal weighted spx, RSP. It's 5% below ATH.

[Goofy Oat @GoofyOat]

@3PeaksTrading 100%. I know a big account macro fintwit are licking their wound the whole year. Sold the bottom on outperformers at yearly low, and shorted ARKK at lows the 2nd time now. They took the loss when shorting ARKK the first time. It’s underwater again. Truly outstanding. 😂

[Goofy Oat @GoofyOat]

@SoccerMomTrades Because Darius Dale shorted ARKK again last Friday..

[Goofy Oat @GoofyOat]

@John_J_Ahearn Oh wait. Genuine question. What do you mean? Fintwits are very bearish right now.
I observe the peaks of DXY has historically associated with the bottom of global equity ex. US. US equity holding up well so far seems to be international capital inflow?

[Goofy Oat @GoofyOat]

@sss4321_s oh boy. spx 4k? btc 25k?

[Goofy Oat @GoofyOat]

@SoccerMomTrades @42macroDDale @dampedspring Oh, Darius also sold PINK, DEF, and XLRE at the lows at the end of Feb. They are all near ATHs now.

[Goofy Oat @GoofyOat]

@SoccerMomTrades @42macroDDale @dampedspring Darius consistently made some terrible calls. Recently, short SPHB and ARKK at the bottom, covered at the top. Buy high sell low on bonds etc. Sold SPLV at the lows, now it’s almost at ATH. He’s a counter trade.

[Goofy Oat @GoofyOat]

@SoccerMomTrades huh? pain is always lower

[Goofy Oat @GoofyOat]

I wonder what assets buyers sold to to buy bonds.

[Derivatives Monke @Derivatives_Ape]

Global bond market is worth ~$100t and is currently selling off at a rapid pace.

Where is all that money going to flow to?

Gold/silver/Bitcoin extracting a large chunk of it is the most likely scenario, I can’t think of an alternative.

[Goofy Oat @GoofyOat]

@jim_b4_the_rugs *ema

[Goofy Oat @GoofyOat]

@jim_b4_the_rugs Oh, btc more closely mirrors NDX, which just went below 140d MA.

[Goofy Oat @GoofyOat]

@MarketsInternal Thanks. Wonder if you’ve looked at long vol position?

[Goofy Oat @GoofyOat]

WSJ, bullish you say?

[Goofy Oat @GoofyOat]

👇 Truth. Positioning is more important than the news. It’s a negative sum game in a tightening environment. Being reactive to news flow is -ev.

[SpotGamma @spotgamma]

We’ve talked a lot re: major market lows occurring w/ large expirations

Most notably, dec 18, Mar 20 & 22

Some have pushed back saying bounce was gov/fed intervention (Mnuchin Xmas eve bank calls in Dec ‘18 and Fed in 3/20)

However this time Fed was hawkish & mkt still bounced

[Goofy Oat @GoofyOat]

@MarketsInternal Ok, thanks. What’s the label for y axis? The positive bar on SM is so small.
Follow your reasoning, it still doesn’t mean the market tops here.
Fin inst could have been shorting the index and long individual stocks for the last 2 yrs. Are they long the index and short stock now?

[Goofy Oat @GoofyOat]

Equity in the near term looks alright. I don't see reasons to have a significant sell off yet. (Not trying to predict the the financial markets based on moving averages. It's just a casual observation.)

[Goofy Oat @GoofyOat]

SPX divided by M2 money supply.
Both BTC and SPX/M2 are stuck between 200-600DMA. It would be interesting to see how it plays out this time.