It's time to reward your patience.
Mortal Shell II - Official Gameplay Reveal.
Watch the world-first gameplay showcase here: https://t.co/llD3krfQZU
#mortalshell
The only way I see a macro low as early as May (like in 1970) is if there is no relief in late April and instead a further rapid decline in asset prices.
Base case for now though as I see it is that the market stays weak into the first half of April and from there we can see if any relief materializes.
SPX is now down about 8.5%
Looking for a 10-15% drop from the highs where SPX finds a local low in April before bouncing (so a bit more to go).
The strength of the bounce by SPX after the April low will be hard to know with a ton of confidence.
My *guess* is that it would at least rally back up to the 21W EMA, but in some edge cases could even sweep the prior highs before dropping again.
Path is very difficult to get right, but I think for now SPX will stay bearish into April before finding any real relief.
Bear markets are a process, not a single event.
Bear markets make fools of both bulls and bears.
SPX has already dropped 5%.
If it continues to drop to 10%+, we run the risk of entering into the negative feedback loop I have mentioned.
As of right now, the negative feedback loop has not happened, as layoffs/initial claims remain low.
Slay the Spire 2's concurrent Steam players just hit 179,456, the highest ever for any roguelike.
When StS1 first launched back in 2017, it had 193 concurrent players.
That's a 92,982% increase, meaning StS3 is on track to hit 166,861,777 concurrent players by 2035. 💪