If $BTC can get some price action above $90k, and especially if it can go above $95k, I will begin taking small profit to begin building a small cash position.
I'm open to having a 5%-15% cash position in my portfolio, depending how high BTC can go in the coming month.
Right now, the 50 week SMA is around $101k. Would love to see BTC tag that, as it has done in previous bear market relief rallies. That would be my ideal profit-taking zone. I'd probably take the full 15% profits into cash, there.
Also, there's supposedly a small CME gap that needs filling around $93k (see image). It's from @TedPillows and is featured in an article (an interesting read) by @GhostxWriterx here: https://t.co/OfVn7SDixj
I am also open to BTC just going lower, such as to $81k first. I will do nothing if BTC doesn't go above $90k again. I have complete patience with either scenario.
Important clues to spotting the Bitcoin & Altcoin bull run tops
Bitcoin dominance right now is around 61%.
During the final stages of a Bitcoin bull run, BTC/USD climbs while BTC dominance DROPS (this is also when altseason occurs, simultaneously). Chart 1 depicts this for both prior bull runs (2017 & 2021).
Matthew makes the correct observation that every time Bitcoin Dominance dropped below ~49%, the Bitcoin top has been verified to be IN for that cycle [chart 1].
We should pay attention to this when assessing whether its time to perhaps take some BTC profits (when BTC dominance drops below 49%). Altcoin profits would be just around the corner as well, typically following a few weeks later.
This analysis further tells us that BTC/USD absolutely has room to run up before its final top is in, despite all the fear on the time line. This is yet another indicator the bull run ain't over yet!
Summary:
The time has come for BTC dominance to drop very soon-- probably mid November like the rest of the metrics I'm watching are hinting at (see here: https://t.co/FYQ4YhOQ7z).
BTC needs to begin its last leg up soon and this timing would make a lot of sense.
I agree with this spot on analysis by @MatthewHyland_
$BTC breakdown from channel. Local top is in.
Multiple confluence shown at $98k:
β’ 50-week moving average (historical breakdowns indicate bull run is over) [green line, with projected path in dotted green]
β’ Trendline of 2021 ATHs [blue line]
β’ Previous channel bottom [red rectangle]
β’ Previous channel lower trend line [yellow line]
I personally don't think the bull run is over, but I do think it's now going to take a while before we see another approach at ATHs-- Could be up to 2 months.
Interestingly, this timing is not going to leave any room for a blow-off top of any significant size by October, so either the bull run goes for longer (likeliest outcome), or we have a weird non-blow-off-top cycle. Sentiment is far from euphoria, so my anticipation of a top beyond October (perhaps in Nov-Jan) has increased. The other option is the top is already in (I give that low odds though based on complete lack of a proper sentiment top).
The lowest price I see BTC reasonably going is around $98k, the point of multiple points of confluence marked with arrow. We don't want to see it go below that, otherwise bull run could very well be over, even despite the lack of a proper sentiment top.
TL;DR: Price below $98k = bad. Price above $98k = good.
@Don42B @DrFunkhauser @MarketPalmer_ lol, yes (basically).
Hereβs what a $200,000 mortgage looks like @ 6% for 30 years. You wonβt dip under a $100,000 mortgage balance until July 2045 (21 years into the 30 year term). Iβll never understand why these massive life decisions arenβt researched and understood properly.
Class 1A Boys State Soccer Round-Up:
- Van Meter stuns No. 1 πΎ
- West Liberty wins thriller π«’
- North Fayette Valley rallies π¦
- Iowa City Regina takes care of business π
https://t.co/2QNZH9jwVE
Ben Gordon
WR, Van Meter High School (IA)
Senior Year Accolades
- Des Moines Register All-State Elite Team
- Finished 2nd in Iowa in all-purpose yards
Welcome to the family @BenGordon26!
#EverLoyal#1UNI#Signed