𝙲𝚘𝚕𝚒𝚗 𝚃𝚊𝚕𝚔𝚜 𝙲𝚛𝚢𝚙𝚝𝚘

@cbbi_daily
“All paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value – ZERO” (Voltaire 1729)

Fiat is the scam that enables all other scams.

[𝙲𝚘𝚕𝚒𝚗 𝚃𝚊𝚕𝚔𝚜 𝙲𝚛𝚢𝚙𝚝𝚘 @ColinTCrypto]

As a $BTC bear since Nov 17, 2025, I am willing to concede that there is now a good chance the bottom could be in.

I had been expecting the likeliest outcome as a break down from the $62.3k level and it broke up instead. I got that wrong. I am therefore being quick to adjust my opinion since new data has presented itself.

We have a valid bottoming pattern (inverse Head and Shoulders) that broke out with strength and volume. We are 10 months into the bear market, which is a long time. BTC is now above the 200-day MA and above the long-term downtrending diagonal line (see the dotted line).

That being said, I'm still cautious about the coming few months. I think we could chop sideways during that time as it is still early in the bottoming process. IMO, it's likely we will retrace some of the recent move we've seen ($62.7k -> $72.5k), in the coming weeks/months.

Sentiment is quite excited at the moment and I view that more as a local topping indicator (I think we're close to exhaustion of this move). Also, it's only been ~2 days so far from the breakout, so it's good to watch what price action does (to see the weekly candle confirmation, etc.)

But will $BTC make new cycle lows? That's the key question. I am now viewing it as *less likely*, although not impossible. I currently give 70% odds the bottom is in at $57.8k.

Additionally, I am not chasing the price after such a big move as we've seen from $62.7k to $72.5k, and considering how early we are in the bottoming process. We are not in the euphoric final stages of a bull run where the price can keep ripping. This is the first potential move out of a bear market. Early stages.

KEY LEVEL
$67k, the neckline of the iH&S, is the new key support. I do think it will retest this level, at a minimum, later this year. That may be where I buy in more. All my sells were considerably higher, so this remains a profitable strategy.

STRATEGY MODIFICATION
I'm no longer waiting for $51k to re-buy back in with the last remaining 35% of my cash (see this post where you can see how I already have been DCAing back in, over the past few months: https://t.co/i44KrJuJoy)

The goal should never be to time the bottom perfectly as that's near-impossible. My goal is just to be generally early before the majority of the next bull run move occurs, and to be profitable with any sells I've made. Otherwise, my goal is just to hodl the majority of my BTC holdings.

HEATED DEBATE
I am aware this is a heated debate right now (whether the bottom is in or not), and I see some lashing out toxically when posts like this are made (most are non-verified members, interestingly, which is why I set this post to "only verified members can reply"). Thank you to the rest of you for being civil.

Markets are ever-evolving and one must be nimble and adjust, taking in new data. We all make forecasts, but no one can see the future. In the last few days we've had significant, new key data (the breakout of an iH&S with volume) and as such, I am quickly digesting this new data and making this updated opinion.

🏳️ So, let it be stated that I pivoted from bearish to bullish on August 20, 2026. 🏳️

I considered naming this post "Humble Pie".

[References] This is when I pivoted from bullish to bearish last year, around Nov 17th: https://t.co/nZNcetTQi7
https://t.co/xa8ShFotrw
https://t.co/ycaSyAB131

[𝙲𝚘𝚕𝚒𝚗 𝚃𝚊𝚕𝚔𝚜 𝙲𝚛𝚢𝚙𝚝𝚘 @ColinTCrypto]

$BTC broke out to $69.6k ✅

It jumped up by $5k in an hour!

IS THE BOTTOM IN??

That’s the big question on everyone’s mind.

BTC climbed up to the 200-day MA, for the second touch of this moving average during the bear market. The previous time was May 2026 at $82k.

In past bear markets, this moving average has been tagged twice as well, and lower prices were still eventually reached. This is normal behavior. Does it mean it will happen again?

Bulls will state that past behavior isn’t a guarantee of future behavior, and thus, BTC won't go lower again this time, and the bottom is in. Could it be? It’s possible, and increasingly so. I'm not saying they're wrong. The odds of bulls being wrong just went down. But I'm also not yet 100% convinced they are right. My confidence is a sliding scale-- not binary.

We are close enough, in time, to the final bottom zone that I wouldn’t rule out the bottom being in at this point. Furthermore, bitcoin has formed an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, which is a bottom pattern. BUT it's only a few hours into this pattern, and typical confirmation (to avoid fakeouts and deviations) should allow for the daily and even weekly candle closes. Because a bitcoin bear market is a multi-month process, longer time-frame candles are more reliable.

However! In past bear markets BTC has still gone lower in the months that follow, so it’s not a guaranteed celebration yet, imho. In terms of time, we are also a couple of months away from a typical cycle bottom. That's not the only way of measuring things though.

Ultimately, maybe we just get a re-test of the lows, rather than new lows. There are many possibilities for how this plays out.

The truth is-- there are many metrics and methods of analysis that go both ways (stating the bottom is in and stating the bottom is not in). This is because we are in the BOTTOMING ZONE-- we're getting CLOSE if the bottom isn't in already.

With a long enough investing time horizon we are close enough that it won't matter much.

My personal guess is that we still see the price drop back down, to the range lows at a minimum, within the next ~2 months. This is my guess, though. It gets more difficult to accurately predict when we get toward the actual bottom, as things get less definitive (it's easier to say the bottom is not in when we're further from it).

Money Speaks Louder Than Words. What Am I Actually Doing?

I’ve already allocated 42% of my cash back into BTC around the $60k-$62k level. This is me DCAing back in. I also allocated another 23% to a stock I feel very confident about ($ABCL) which recently doubled in price, much to my satisfaction. But I also continue to hold my last 35% portion of cash for further dip-buying opportunities in the 4-8 weeks to come.

One thing is for sure: we are in the final inning of the bear market (assuming there is some bear market remaining). I have never said it was wrong to begin DCAing from the low $60k range. Like I said: I, myself, *began* doing so between $60-$62k.

But rather than chase euphoric FOMO pump-candles (like we're seeing now), I think it's best to buy on *dips*.

[𝙲𝚘𝚕𝚒𝚗 𝚃𝚊𝚕𝚔𝚜 𝙲𝚛𝚢𝚙𝚝𝚘 @ColinTCrypto]

@elonmusk @Austen https://t.co/d3cUJXO5EZ

[Sawyer Merritt @SawyerMerritt]

You can get a used Model 3 for less than a fully loaded 16" OLED MacBook Pro:

• 2020 Model 3 Standard Range with 95k miles, no accidents/damage & clean title: $14,190
• Fully loaded 16-inch MacBook Pro: $14,549

[𝙲𝚘𝚕𝚒𝚗 𝚃𝚊𝚕𝚔𝚜 𝙲𝚛𝚢𝚙𝚝𝚘 @ColinTCrypto]

@elonmusk @Austen A whole car or a desktop computer? Hmm lol

[𝙲𝚘𝚕𝚒𝚗 𝚃𝚊𝚕𝚔𝚜 𝙲𝚛𝚢𝚙𝚝𝚘 @ColinTCrypto]

@SawyerMerritt And yet I’d still feel safer in a Tesla with FAD

[𝙲𝚘𝚕𝚒𝚗 𝚃𝚊𝚕𝚔𝚜 𝙲𝚛𝚢𝚙𝚝𝚘 @ColinTCrypto]

This mess was created by every single politician, left and right, who overspent the budget and who passed bills that forced money printers to turn on.

It’s been every president and every Fed member for the last 50+ years.

This is why bitcoin exists. I know you know this, Jeffrey.

[𝙲𝚘𝚕𝚒𝚗 𝚃𝚊𝚕𝚔𝚜 𝙲𝚛𝚢𝚙𝚝𝚘 @ColinTCrypto]

@elonmusk $ABCL is going to be one of the big winners imo

[𝙲𝚘𝚕𝚒𝚗 𝚃𝚊𝚕𝚔𝚜 𝙲𝚛𝚢𝚙𝚝𝚘 @ColinTCrypto]

@m_goes_distance I am. $ABCL

[𝙲𝚘𝚕𝚒𝚗 𝚃𝚊𝚕𝚔𝚜 𝙲𝚛𝚢𝚙𝚝𝚘 @ColinTCrypto]

The $BTC price has been hanging on for dear life to these lower support levels for some time now.

Waiting for a decisive move in some direction...

[𝙲𝚘𝚕𝚒𝚗 𝚃𝚊𝚕𝚔𝚜 𝙲𝚛𝚢𝚙𝚝𝚘 @ColinTCrypto]

$BTC has lost momentum in the past 4 days, especially since the failed break above $84k.

It's clearly looking weak, and while it does seem likely that it drops lower, it is worth noting that it is still at the very lowest dregs of the boundary, within a margin of error.

For example, if some "White Swan Event" occured (something good but unexpected), like Trump suddenly ending the war with Iran, I could see BTC pumping and staying afloat. I am just mentioning possibilities. Good not to rule anything out. That's my bull case lol.

I think right now, we should be prepared for anything, and that includes more downside, as BTC has clearly been weak-- especially the past 4 days. BTC could easily go to $76k. That seems to be the most likely path, but again, I wouldn't rule out anything, especially right before midterm elections when politicians are desperate for votes.

[𝙲𝚘𝚕𝚒𝚗 𝚃𝚊𝚕𝚔𝚜 𝙲𝚛𝚢𝚙𝚝𝚘 @ColinTCrypto]

@JSeyff @fejau_inc ChiliPad works great for me. No subscription fee

[𝙲𝚘𝚕𝚒𝚗 𝚃𝚊𝚕𝚔𝚜 𝙲𝚛𝚢𝚙𝚝𝚘 @ColinTCrypto]

@AlexRitterPhD That's really cool

[𝙲𝚘𝚕𝚒𝚗 𝚃𝚊𝚕𝚔𝚜 𝙲𝚛𝚢𝚙𝚝𝚘 @ColinTCrypto]

@IncomeSharks @Nebraskangooner hahah so true. done that a few times 😅

[𝙲𝚘𝚕𝚒𝚗 𝚃𝚊𝚕𝚔𝚜 𝙲𝚛𝚢𝚙𝚝𝚘 @ColinTCrypto]

@qpzm620 That's the best mindset right now. Be ready for either outcome.

[𝙲𝚘𝚕𝚒𝚗 𝚃𝚊𝚕𝚔𝚜 𝙲𝚛𝚢𝚙𝚝𝚘 @ColinTCrypto]

$BTC has lost momentum in the past 4 days, especially since the failed break above $84k.

It's clearly looking weak, and while it does seem likely that it drops lower, it is worth noting that it is still at the very lowest dregs of the boundary, within a margin of error.

For example, if some "White Swan Event" occured (something good but unexpected), like Trump suddenly ending the war with Iran, I could see BTC pumping and staying afloat. I am just mentioning possibilities. Good not to rule anything out. That's my bull case lol.

I think right now, we should be prepared for anything, and that includes more downside, as BTC has clearly been weak-- especially the past 4 days. BTC could easily go to $76k. That seems to be the most likely path, but again, I wouldn't rule out anything, especially right before midterm elections when politicians are desperate for votes.

[𝙲𝚘𝚕𝚒𝚗 𝚃𝚊𝚕𝚔𝚜 𝙲𝚛𝚢𝚙𝚝𝚘 @ColinTCrypto]

@IvanOnTech Getting excited

[𝙲𝚘𝚕𝚒𝚗 𝚃𝚊𝚕𝚔𝚜 𝙲𝚛𝚢𝚙𝚝𝚘 @ColinTCrypto]

@Spanos9118 Bullish

[𝙲𝚘𝚕𝚒𝚗 𝚃𝚊𝚕𝚔𝚜 𝙲𝚛𝚢𝚙𝚝𝚘 @ColinTCrypto]

@paulp1232 @willywoo @BitcoinMagazine @watchbmtv @GraceRemiTV @realseanhagan @CasaHODL @lopp AI has also solved difficult math problems hitherto unsolved

[𝙲𝚘𝚕𝚒𝚗 𝚃𝚊𝚕𝚔𝚜 𝙲𝚛𝚢𝚙𝚝𝚘 @ColinTCrypto]

@jeffreytucker @grok Been using AI for cooking for years. I must have made these cookies a half dozen times. Delicious https://t.co/l7i1D6py4u

[𝙲𝚘𝚕𝚒𝚗 𝚃𝚊𝚕𝚔𝚜 𝙲𝚛𝚢𝚙𝚝𝚘 @ColinTCrypto]

Uhh... has anyone tried this before?

I just literally made some @grok AI cookies, to my specification, and *they are amazing*.

See the prompt I used in the below post, and the recipe.

They are the perfect balance of sweet and salty, with gooey chocolate chips and macadamia nuts.

[𝙲𝚘𝚕𝚒𝚗 𝚃𝚊𝚕𝚔𝚜 𝙲𝚛𝚢𝚙𝚝𝚘 @ColinTCrypto]

The market does not like uncertainties

[𝙲𝚘𝚕𝚒𝚗 𝚃𝚊𝚕𝚔𝚜 𝙲𝚛𝚢𝚙𝚝𝚘 @ColinTCrypto]

I personally think it's pretty dumb to underestimate the logarithmic potential of AI and what it could do to accelerate quantum development beyond what we expect.

Why take that kind of risk? Foolish imo. BTC devs are being irresponsible imo. Even if it's just a 10% chance of happening before we expect it, that's too high with trillions of dollars at stake.

[𝙲𝚘𝚕𝚒𝚗 𝚃𝚊𝚕𝚔𝚜 𝙲𝚛𝚢𝚙𝚝𝚘 @ColinTCrypto]

I personally think it's pretty dumb to underestimate the logarithmic potential of AI and what it could do to accelerate quantum development beyond what we expect.

Why take that kind of risk? Foolish imo. BTC devs are being irresponsible imo. Even if it's just a 10% chance of happening before we expect it, that's too high with trillions of dollars at stake.

[Bitcoin Magazine @BitcoinMagazine]

JUST IN: Casa's Chief Security Officer Jameson Lopp says Bitcoin faces no immediate threat from quantum computing. 👀

"We are orders of magnitudes away from a real usable quantum computer that can crack the algorithm that is used to secure your Bitcoin." 👏

[𝙲𝚘𝚕𝚒𝚗 𝚃𝚊𝚕𝚔𝚜 𝙲𝚛𝚢𝚙𝚝𝚘 @ColinTCrypto]

@willywoo @BitcoinMagazine @watchbmtv @GraceRemiTV @realseanhagan @CasaHODL @lopp I personally think it's pretty dumb to underestimate the logarithmic potential of AI and what it could do to speed up quantum development beyond what we expect. Why take that kind of risk? Foolish imo.

[𝙲𝚘𝚕𝚒𝚗 𝚃𝚊𝚕𝚔𝚜 𝙲𝚛𝚢𝚙𝚝𝚘 @ColinTCrypto]

@msabouri If only America was this honest