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In December ERCOT flipped on real-time co-optimization. Energy and ancillary services now clear together every five minutes, with battery state of charge in the math. Projected wholesale savings top a billion dollars a year. The edge goes to whoever dispatches best.
For 20 years ERCOT demand grew 1 to 2 percent a year. The new forecast: peak load approaching 145 GW by 2031, from 85 GW in 2024. Data centers are over half the increase. The era of predictable grid planning is done. Build accordingly.
Texas's draft SB6 rules make big loads pay to get in line. 75 MW and up means $50,000 per MW posted as security before interconnection studies even start. A 1 GW data center puts up $50 million. Speculative projects leave the queue. Serious ones go off-grid faster.
xAI's Colossus is getting a 1.2 GW off-grid power plant. A West Texas project pairs 1.8 GW of batteries with 7.65 GW of gas. The grid didn't lose these customers. It never had time to win them. Off-grid is now the default for frontier AI.
226 gigawatts of new large loads want onto the Texas grid, mostly data centers. The all-time peak is 85. Texas just passed a law letting the grid curtail big loads in a crunch. Translation: your connection is not firm. Dedicated power plus storage is the product now.