Grayson Hoteling

The Gray Area on Substack🔋 ⬇️

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Semiconductor stocks now account for a record 18.8% of the S&P 500’s market cap.

This percentage has more than TRIPLED since 2022.

Over this period, the semiconductor index, $SOX, has rallied a massive +546%.

To put this into perspective, semiconductors accounted for less than half of their current weight at the peak of the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble.

Meanwhile, the Magnificent 7 stocks now reflect a record ~33% of the S&P 500’s market value.

Tech is all that matters.

[Grayson Hoteling @GraysonHoteling]

Some things are easy to say in a bull market

[Peter Mallouk @PeterMallouk]

The market isn’t red or blue - it’s green.
It doesn’t care about politics.
It runs on earnings, innovation, and growth.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The AI revolution needs more funding:

Net equity issuances are estimated to rise to ~$200 billion in 2026 and surge +500% YoY in 2027, to ~$1.2 trillion, according to JP Morgan.

This includes IPOs, secondary offerings, and other share sales after accounting for buybacks.

Combined, this would be the largest 2-year period of net stock issuance since at least the late 1990s.

This marks a sharp reversal from ~$12 trillion of shares repurchased in the previous 20 years, shrinking the available stock supply consistently each year.

The surge is being driven by SpaceX's, $SPCX, $85.7 billion IPO, the largest in history, alongside upcoming mega IPOs from OpenAI and Anthropic.

At the same time, Alphabet, $GOOGL, Meta, $META, and Oracle, $ORCL, are expected to raise hundreds of billions in secondary share offerings to fund their AI spending plans.

We are about to witness a historic wave of US equity issuance.

[Grayson Hoteling @GraysonHoteling]

Tomorrows article is a part 2 about agricultural commodities. Get up to speed on part 1 before tomorrow morning!
https://t.co/6Yoe4OqIvX

[Grayson Hoteling @GraysonHoteling]

Are you gonna be their exit liquidity?

[Quinten | 048.eth @QuintenFrancois]

Only ~5% of SpaceX stock is floating right now

~95% $SPCX is still locked

Most don’t realize bearish pressure often comes later, when insiders finally get liquidity

Unlock schedule below ⬇️

[Grayson Hoteling @GraysonHoteling]

I think they need a new label above extreme greed:

“people are actually buying SpaceX stock”

[NoLimit @NoLimitGains]

You do understand that the only reason SpaceX is going up is because almost nobody can sell just yet, right?

[Quinten | 048.eth @QuintenFrancois]

Only ~5% of SpaceX stock is floating right now

~95% $SPCX is still locked

Most don’t realize bearish pressure often comes later, when insiders finally get liquidity

Unlock schedule below ⬇️

[Henrik Zeberg @HenrikZeberg]

I just cannot express enough how insane this is.

A company creating a yearly LOSS of 5BN USD - and has accumulated a LOSS of 41BN USD over the last few years.....

This is NOT what you see at Bull Market Take-Offs. This is the Final Phases of a Bull Market.

And people speculating in SpaceX will lose a lot of money.... unfortunately!

Stay tuned!

[Grayson Hoteling @GraysonHoteling]

It be getting even sillier by the day

[NoLimit @NoLimitGains]

Seriously, who’s buying this at $186?

[Grayson Hoteling @GraysonHoteling]

Solar cycle extremes don’t just pose risks for the real economy (GDP), it also affect stocks.

The greatest volatility events in the stock market all occur at solar minimums or maximums!

Check out Not So Bright pt. 3 for full analysis.

[Grayson Hoteling @GraysonHoteling]

Could pay to be patient. Another dip lower could be a great opportunity.

[The DeFi Investor 🔎 @TheDeFinvestor]

All $BTC cycle bottoms happened below Bitcoin's realized price.

Today, its realized price is $53,000.

Some generational buy opportunities are coming if history repeats itself again.

[Grayson Hoteling @GraysonHoteling]

What do the 2020 and 2008 recessions have in common? Both occurred at solar minimum.

How about 2000 and 1990? Both at solar maximum.

In fact, GDP under 2% tend to cluster around extremes in the solar cycle. Maximum (purple), minimum (red).

Read Not So Bright pt. 3 for more!

[Grayson Hoteling @GraysonHoteling]

It's national SpaceX day

[Grayson Hoteling @GraysonHoteling]

ETF flows are a large mover of BTC price. The asset may not be on our side until flows care consistently positive again.
https://t.co/PSy1tSZpgT

[Grayson Hoteling @GraysonHoteling]

Ample liquidity = bubbles. Constrained = busts

We are on our way from ample to constrained.
https://t.co/VgdtQFsOVk

[Grayson Hoteling @GraysonHoteling]

Google is issuing shares not instead of stock buybacks. Along with IPOs, this value needs to be absorbed by the market. Nothing overwhelming for the market, but it adds pressure the other way.
https://t.co/MytPEC26nC

[Grayson Hoteling @GraysonHoteling]

Solar cycles! We just entered the declining phase.

The risk-return ratio in the declining phase is WAY worse than the inclining phase.

Add on top a valuation bubble = the last two lost decades for stocks in the 1970s and 2000s. We have the same setup now.

[Grayson Hoteling @GraysonHoteling]

The model portfolio has REAL diversification, not your small cap vs large cap which both just own the same AI stocks.

Learn how to navigate an increasingly risky macro environment.
https://t.co/PofZiY161I

[Guilherme Tavares @i3_invest]

Investors are in extreme speculative mode.

Similar patterns occurred in 2000, 2007, 2021, and now.

Is it different this time?