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Rate Hike Odds Drop as CPI Data Comes In The latest CPI data was released yesterday, and it came in at 3.4%, exactly where it was expected to be, and it’s the same story for core CPI, which came in at 2.5%, as expected. The question for markets is how this affects the odds of a rate hike later this year, and in fact, we’re now seeing that the probability of a hike in September has dropped to just 38%, with the majority expectation being that rates remain the same. Now for sure, there are a lot of moving parts here, and the biggest unknown is how the conflict with Iran plays out–and especially what that means for the price of oil–but don’t forget that Trump picked new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh with rate cuts in mind, and while Warsh couldn’t make an immediately dovish entrance, that background pressure from the president is likely to be a consideration.

Grazi's tweet photo. Rate Hike Odds Drop as CPI Data Comes In

The latest CPI data was released yesterday, and it came in at 3.4%, exactly where it was expected to be, and it’s the same story for core CPI, which came in at 2.5%, as expected.

The question for markets is how this affects the odds of a rate hike later this year, and in fact, we’re now seeing that the probability of a hike in September has dropped to just 38%, with the majority expectation being that rates remain the same.

Now for sure, there are a lot of moving parts here, and the biggest unknown is how the conflict with Iran plays out–and especially what that means for the price of oil–but don’t forget that Trump picked new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh with rate cuts in mind, and while Warsh couldn’t make an immediately dovish entrance, that background pressure from the president is likely to be a consideration.

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9 days ago

Chart of the Day 📊 On the Bitcoin chart, the Bollinger Bands have narrowed to their tightest range since October 2023. This indicator cannot predict which way price moves next, but it suggests that a strong move is coming, one way or the other. (For reference, after October 2023, BTC then went on an enormous two-year rally.) It’s worth noting also that there is considerable apathy around Bitcoin at the moment, with data from Glassnode showing spot exchange volume at its lowest level since 2019, meaning it wouldn’t take a huge increase in participation to trigger increased volatility.

Grazi's tweet photo. Chart of the Day 📊

On the Bitcoin chart, the Bollinger Bands have narrowed to their tightest range since October 2023. This indicator cannot predict which way price moves next, but it suggests that a strong move is coming, one way or the other. (For reference, after October 2023, BTC then went on an enormous two-year rally.)

It’s worth noting also that there is considerable apathy around Bitcoin at the moment, with data from Glassnode showing spot exchange volume at its lowest level since 2019, meaning it wouldn’t take a huge increase in participation to trigger increased volatility.

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8 days ago

@Grazi Gm 💪

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8 days ago

GM 💚 Let’s Get Money

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9 days ago

It’s been around a month and a half since Robinhood Chain launched, and already it’s shaping up to potentially be a central network when crypto picks up wider attention again. Recent data from Blockworks demonstrates that Robinhood Chain has already become the most profitable Ethereum Layer-2, with monthly revenue in July of $3.6M, compared to $2.7M on Polygon, and $2.1M on Base. Keep in mind that Robinhood Chain was designed for RWAs, and is making good progress on that front, with charts from Token Terminal showing growth in tokenized stocks, commodities, and funds, along with stablecoin growth. So could Robinhood Chain take on a similar role to Solana’s in the cycle just gone–as the go-to network for speculative activity and new launches, and a center of attention for crypto in general? It’s still too early to make that judgement, and Solana itself may play the same part again, but Robinhood Chain is certainly off to a strong start.