Graham Redelsheimer

Can’t Spell | Correlation == Causation | Sports Data Viz | Bad Takes | KC ➡️ MPLS | @commute_sports

[Graham Redelsheimer @gredelsheimer]

Timberwolves’ defense is on par with last year’s numbers

It’s their offense and turnovers that appear to be the problem

[Jon Krawczynski @JonKrawczynski]

Have the Timberwolves rediscovered the defense that carried them to the conference finals last season? The sample size is too small to lean too heavily on the numbers.

But the aggression and body language is back in a big way. Led by, of course, Rudy Gobert. Story below 👇

[Graham Redelsheimer @gredelsheimer]

A moth later and this has changed quite a bit.

Chiefs now are the 10th ranked team in terms of calls helping their win probabilities.

Cardinals take the top spot

Ravens still towards the bottom

[Graham Redelsheimer @gredelsheimer]

You’re right. When looking at it that way the teams that benefit are similar

The chiefs (which is what started this whole thing) have had some major help from calls

[Graham Redelsheimer @gredelsheimer]

Of course Embiid not playing for 8 games hurts them, but that dosent fit my narrative

[Graham Redelsheimer @gredelsheimer]

The Sixers are just not good.

They turn the ball over as much as anyone, and they’re historically bad in FGM per possession.

It’s a master class in how to lose

[The Athletic @TheAthletic]

The Sixers have hit rock bottom.

Philadelphia drops its fifth straight game, falling to 2-12 on the season.

[Graham Redelsheimer @gredelsheimer]

When you net all the calls across the game the chiefs benefit more than most from calls.

https://t.co/SauRJVxL04

[Graham Redelsheimer @gredelsheimer]

You’re right. When looking at it that way the teams that benefit are similar

The chiefs (which is what started this whole thing) have had some major help from calls

[Graham Redelsheimer @gredelsheimer]

Turns out the opposite is also true for the chiefs.

Calls against them hurt their win probability more than most teams.

[Graham Redelsheimer @gredelsheimer]

There’s been some chatter around how the Chiefs get the refs helping them, especially in big moments.

Turns out it’s kind of true. They have the 4th highest Average Win Probability Added from opponent penalties this season.

Steelers, Falcons, Eagles make up the top 3.

[Graham Redelsheimer @gredelsheimer]

You’re right. When looking at it that way the teams that benefit are similar

The chiefs (which is what started this whole thing) have had some major help from calls

[David Hess @AudacityOfHoops]

@gredelsheimer Oh ... my point was that the number of penalty calls makes a big difference, too, so we shouldn't average by play at any point. Four +3% calls is way more valuable than one +5% call.

[Graham Redelsheimer @gredelsheimer]

@AudacityOfHoops I think this is an average of the average vs average of everything situation

In this graphic I took the mean of all the penalties in each game to get the per game avg, then took the mean of those for the team avg

Previously it was the mean of all penalties across all games

[Graham Redelsheimer @gredelsheimer]

I’m really not sure what one is more important, but if you look at it per game the chiefs are still towards the top

[David Hess @AudacityOfHoops]

@gredelsheimer Wait wait wait, these charts are all per *call*? Isn't per game the important thing?

[Graham Redelsheimer @gredelsheimer]

https://t.co/oDlsEB8nQY

[Graham Redelsheimer @gredelsheimer]

Kind of, but the Chiefs still benefit more than most from calls.

Over the course of the season the chiefs have added an average of .56% win probability per call.

The Baltimore Ravens lose .82% win probability per call

[Graham Redelsheimer @gredelsheimer]

There’s been some chatter around how the Chiefs get the refs helping them, especially in big moments.

Turns out it’s kind of true. They have the 4th highest Average Win Probability Added from opponent penalties this season.

Steelers, Falcons, Eagles make up the top 3.

[Graham Redelsheimer @gredelsheimer]

@_BTnKC @hbtCHIEFS Absolutely. Like most stats context is important.

I do think though there’s always a bias towards terrible calls in a close primetime game vs a 12:00 panthers game.

Two equally bad calls are just as bad, but one might have more discussion about “how bad” it is.

[Graham Redelsheimer @gredelsheimer]

Kind of, but the Chiefs still benefit more than most from calls.

Over the course of the season the chiefs have added an average of .56% win probability per call.

The Baltimore Ravens lose .82% win probability per call

[Graham Redelsheimer @gredelsheimer]

@Climatologist49 Can we get a graph of the median?

[Graham Redelsheimer @gredelsheimer]

Being a Chiefs fan is so awesome

[Graham Redelsheimer @gredelsheimer]

If this isn’t the new Minnesota state flag, we riot

[Graham Redelsheimer @gredelsheimer]

This league is deathly allergic to common sense

[Allan Walsh🏒 @walsha]

Marc-Andre Fleury indicated he was planning to wear the mask anyway and pay the fine. The NHL then threatened the Wild organization with an additional significant fine.

[Graham Redelsheimer @gredelsheimer]

Bullying works

[Brett Marshall @B_Marsh92]

It’s like Dean Evason read all our tweets

Kaprizov with Boldy and Rossi, Merrill a healthy scratch. Sheesh! #mnwild

[Graham Redelsheimer @gredelsheimer]

unstoppable force vs immovable object

[Nick Olson @NickOlsonNFL]

On the one hand, the Vikings are gonna Viking, however, on the other hand, the Chargers are gonna Charger