EUROPEAN NATURAL GAS - STILL IN BACKWARDATION
European natural gas is still in strong backwardation, with its 2029 futures prices trading 67% lower.
While gas normally trades in contango (longer-dated contracts trading higher than shorter ones), this is the sign that buyers are rushing to secure whatever supply they can get now.
#OOTT solana:yD2VeA4ANfabXb9azdfKnEac8LJuxuYaZX2WCyhpump $XLE
Brent currently above $100...
$PBR.A at $95 Brent for a full year: FCF ~US$25B
Policy: 45% of FCF paid out
Dividend ~$1.76/ADR = 9.1% yield on $19.22
At $105: $2.28 paid out
At $75: $0.71
Absolute FCF machine. Well positioned.
Transco declared force majeure at Compressor Station 50 (MP 517) after a Main Unit 9 equipment failure, cutting south-to-north capacity through the station boundary to 1.30 Bcf/d from a normal 1.536 Bcf/d, effective gas day September 29. #NatGas
If true (I'll personally be waiting to validate with exports) this will mean ~1.5 MMbpd of feedstock for West Coast Saudi refineries and ~2 MMbpd for export.
That's compared to exports of ~5.0-5.5 MMbpd immediately before the East-West Pipeline was taken offline following attack
I can fully recommend following Mr. @JoshYoung. Actionable insights, sharp observations and a SOBER view on energy (mainly oil) markets amidst all the crazy shenanigans going on right now.
(plus some memes he posts are fire)
How would US diesel export restriction impact tanker shipping rates?
⚓Curb on US diesel exports would be negative for MR product tanker rates in the Atlantic basin but positive for LR product tanker rates in the Pacific
⚓US restrictions would hike diesel margins in Asia, providing more room for importers to pay stratospheric freight rates for crude transport on VLCCs
⚓US would have more crude available for export, a positive for transatlantic aframax rates, and some aframaxes could switch back to LR2 service, another positive for aframax rates
https://t.co/pA55mOniDB
Energy Demand will grow. So how do we convert it into bankable investment. Markets need visibility to invest ahead of bottlenecks:
➡️Speed up renewables, storage & grids
➡️Accelerate permitting
➡️Advance digital tools & AI
Excellent chat w/ @Masdar, @ADSWagenda & @McKinsey.
"The #uranium that can be mined at a reasonable cost is shrinking. Much of the growth came from expensive deposits and reassessments of old ones, rather than from new discoveries. Put simply, the industry is mining its cheapest pounds faster than it is finding new ones."⚠️⛏️🤠🐂
"The momentum is here. The coalition is here. The need is undeniable. The time to pass durable permitting reform is now."
Read the latest on permitting reform from @KarenAHarbert and the Natural Gas Council in the @dcexaminer.
https://t.co/oUgyJLPJzg
September 21
"Two more tankers have been struck while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, with two seafarers injured, extending a string of attacks against commercial shipping through the strategic waterway.
UK Maritime Trade Operations said Monday that military authorities reported an inbound tanker was struck by an unknown projectile while transiting the strait. Two crew members suffered minor injuries, but the vessel remained under its own power and was continuing to its next port of call. No environmental impact was reported.
Hours later, UKMTO issued a second warning involving an LPG tanker making an outbound transit. The master reported the vessel had been hit by debris from unknown projectiles. All crew were safe, no environmental impact was reported and the tanker continued its voyage."
BREAKING: Iran's triple-urgency bill to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) has now been sent to the parliament's presiding board, coming as lawmakers are calling for nuclear weapons tests "as soon as possible" because Iran needs nuclear deterrence, per Iranian MP Haji-Deligani.
He adds "remaining in the NPT brings us nothing but losses," and "we should conduct the necessary tests for a nuclear weapon as soon as possible."
Kazatomprom Executive on the #Uranium Miner's Contracting Strategy, #Nuclear Fuel Cycle Expansion👥🇰🇿⚛️⛽⛏️ New insightful interview by EnergyIntel at the London WNA symposium.🤠🐂 https://t.co/9e2Tx0np5e
WTI #Oil strip prices.
✔️12 months: $84.65 USD / $119 CAD
✔️24 months: $78 USD / $110 CAD
For near term pricing:
Oct Contract = $102.41 USD.
Nov Contract = $97 USD.
These are excellent prices for (CAD) producers & very 'hedge-into-able' if elected.
#OilSands#Condensate