Greg Miller

Co-Founder @landeconomics_

fail often, succeed occasionally

[Greg Miller @greg__miller]

I extended this analysis to surface parking lots.

Median 4.6x undervaluation (86 sales). 4k surface parking lot parcels.

Estimate $10b in undervaluation, location-controlled. On top of $15b+ from vacant land.

Even if magnitudes 10% true, it's big, and easy-to-solve.

[Greg Miller @greg__miller]

🧵NYC has neglected its land values in assessments and it may be causing $15b+ in underassessed vacant land.

For many parcels, the land value is frozen over time. I did some quick calcs:

Since 2011, the assessed land share of total property value dropped from 36% to 21%.

[Greg Miller @greg__miller]

@dragon_khoi @landeconomics_ This is property taxes, so the two houses have different improvement values

[Greg Miller @greg__miller]

This graphic has proven to be one @landeconomics_ most viral and useful graphics for explaining the importance of land value tax shifts

[Mark R. Brown, AICP, CNU @Car_Free_USA]

Vacant lots and parking lots should be taxed just as much as developed property.

[Greg Miller @greg__miller]

"End the Inheritance Subsidy" should be the mantra for the very simple proposal of having a carry-over basis instead of the step-basis.

This proposal is *not * an inheritance tax, it is undoing the bizarre subsidy on inheritance we currently have.

[Greg Miller @greg__miller]

My takeaways from a new paper on property taxes (Coven et al):
- Property taxes help efficiently allocate scarce land
- Prop 13 remains bad
- Step up basis reform is housing policy
- DeSantis is pushing wealth to boomers at the expense of the young

https://t.co/UOq6bgA5ot

[Jon Geeting @jongeeting]

Let’s go! @YIMBYtown @greg__miller

[Greg Miller @greg__miller]

@jongeeting @YIMBYtown 👀👀

[Greg Miller @greg__miller]

@floor_per_area Great! let me know what you find. I've done even more analysis than shown here and plan to do more. Feel free to shoot me an email as well

[Greg Miller @greg__miller]

🧵NYC has neglected its land values in assessments and it may be causing $15b+ in underassessed vacant land.

For many parcels, the land value is frozen over time. I did some quick calcs:

Since 2011, the assessed land share of total property value dropped from 36% to 21%.

[Greg Miller @greg__miller]

@floor_per_area Assessor updates valuations annually and it looks like rarely ever updates land values. Looks like it’s possibly only when there’s a new building

[Greg Miller @greg__miller]

@stillmansays Interesting! What happened to the bill? Do you have a link?

[Greg Miller @greg__miller]

All of this analysis is preliminary (w/ claude)... much more to do.

@larsiusprime and I did similar analysis in Baltimore and within a year, Baltimore added $160m to the tax rolls in just 1/3rd of the city.

https://t.co/aXznTdthnJ

https://t.co/UoTqZfzQa9

[Greg Miller @greg__miller]

Applied citywide to vacant land that is taxable & developable: there may be $15b+ of missing vacant land value on NYCs roll.

But lots differ in size, frontage and development rights. A regression controlling for those, plus tax class and location, lands a bit higher: ~$20b.

[Greg Miller @greg__miller]

Reminds me of high school when my friends and I would do online math and physics homework

[METR @METR_Evals]

To gather evidence in (2), agents created “tripwires” that would send information to the message board about how the scorer works. They recruited “sacrificial” agents to deliberately end their run and submit to trigger the tripwire and generate information for the “collective”.

[Greg Miller @greg__miller]

@bobbyfijan Under LVT, gas station become more expensive, less profitable

Building becomes cheaper, as the building tax fades

Granted in more volatile market, buildings are fixed and cant change quickly… but, are we seeing responsive adaptation in cities today? On net, LVT >>

[Greg Miller @greg__miller]

Across the US, local governments are updating their assessments, defining land, and considering explicit standards for land valuations. This is the type of work that will make land value taxes possible.

https://t.co/csWrwKKITR