Greg Beyer

[Greg Beyer @GregBeijer]

@MikeBartner @CamMacDonald_ Lesson there; never draft a kid with a beard

[Greg Beyer @GregBeijer]

@domluszczyszyn @chrismeaney Ah so when Montreal was outplaying Tampa it was all because they were playing poorly, but when Montreal gets outplayed it’s their true identity and they have been exposed. How convenient, your hypocrisy is crazy.

[Greg Beyer @GregBeijer]

@boomertang @imralanyrx @xwleblancx Must suck living with zero reading comprehension skills

[Greg Beyer @GregBeijer]

@imralanyrx @xwleblancx It obviously did though, at least from my vantage point. I’m not saying a one-goal lead always changes behaviour, but in this specific Game 7 Montreal clearly sat back and Buffalo started pressing. That’s what score effects are: score/game state changing play style.

[Greg Beyer @GregBeijer]

@imralanyrx @xwleblancx Overall xG doesn’t define the whole series. Tampa was basically a coin flip depending on model, and Buffalo was more contex dependent than ‘they got caved.’ My point is just that raw xG alone is incomplete in short samples, especially if you ignore game state and special teams.

[Greg Beyer @GregBeijer]

@imralanyrx @xwleblancx On a game-by-game basis, the lead itself is almost irrelevant unless you actually see the behaviour change. In Game 7, Montreal clearly turtled once ahead and Buffalo started pressing. That’s why my broader point was that citing xG alone in a short series doesn’t capture context

[Greg Beyer @GregBeijer]

@imralanyrx @xwleblancx I think we’re using ‘score effects’ differently. I’m not saying a 1-goal lead automatically explains everything. Score effects are just the way score/game state can change player behaviour and shot quality/volume.

[Greg Beyer @GregBeijer]

@imralanyrx @xwleblancx Sure, purely 5v5 the slight edge would go to buffalo based on model in 5 or 4 games. Tampa is pretty split 5v5 depending on model, some give to Montreal some to Tampa. Either way both series were near coin flip territory. Disingenuous to say they sucked.

[Greg Beyer @GregBeijer]

@imralanyrx @xwleblancx Score adjustment is just a historical modifier, not a perfect game-state filter. It works better over large samples than as a correction for one specific Game 7. That’s my point: Buffalo’s xG gap grew after the game state changed, the score changed the behaviour or score effects

[Greg Beyer @GregBeijer]

@imralanyrx @xwleblancx You’re proving my point with the chart. The final total looks lopsided, but the separation mostly comes after they went up and Buffalo was pushing while Montreal was protecting. Not defending the play style but it’s what they’ve been doing all year, people have been complaining

[Greg Beyer @GregBeijer]

@imralanyrx @xwleblancx And game 7 buffalo was a case of some obvious extreme score effects. Before Montreal got up; xG was in their favor, plummeted as they turtled and returned to even after Buffalo tied it up. Literal definition of score effects

[Greg Beyer @GregBeijer]

@imralanyrx @xwleblancx That’s not true no matter which site you’re sourcing. Throwing out game 7 xG was practically dead even in the Tampa series, depending on source edge was given either way. Montreal out xG’d in 4 of 7 against Buf. Both series were basically coin flips that either team deserved

[Greg Beyer @GregBeijer]

@imralanyrx @xwleblancx This is disingenuous and a good example of why blindly citing xGF% can miss context. They were great the first 6 games against Tampa, and even with Buffalo ignoring some obvious insane score effects. Median vs the mode type issue as well.

[Greg Beyer @GregBeijer]

@DrakeMT Yeah I’ve been thinking about it the same in someways. They’ve obviously over performed this year, and I’d rather they address the team’s deficiencies objectively than giving out sweetheart contracts because of a good run.

[Greg Beyer @GregBeijer]

@TopDownHockey @dyera1 Also, “score-adjusted” doesn’t erase context. It’s still a historical modifier, not a perfect game state filter. The Buffalo series was an obvious outlier for score effects, and anyone watching those games could see that.

[Greg Beyer @GregBeijer]

@TopDownHockey @dyera1 This is my issue with people treating xGF as doctrine. It strips out context and often ends up underselling what a team actually accomplished.

[Greg Beyer @GregBeijer]

@TopDownHockey @dyera1 That feels like it ignores a lot of context. Montreal hasn’t looked like themselves they look gassed and banged up. Six games against Tampa were basically even, and Buffalo had some heavy score effects. Saying they just “relied on goaltending” undersells what actually happened.

[Greg Beyer @GregBeijer]

@TopDownHockey @dyera1 They were good against Tampa outside of an atrocious Game 7, and good against Buffalo too especially if you account for the extreme score effects in that Game 7. I don’t think one stinker of a series should undermine the whole run.

[Greg Beyer @GregBeijer]

@JFreshHockey Montreal is gassed

[Greg Beyer @GregBeijer]

@HabsChronicle I don’t even think a strategic adjustment needs to be made. Simply getting outworked and losing every puck battle.