Greg Jackson

Real Estate Consultant | Software Freelancer

[Greg Jackson @gregoryljackson]

https://t.co/MZ4Xf0U8kk #ETFs

[Greg Jackson @gregoryljackson]

20 incredibly useful things you didn’t know Google’s Gemini AI could do https://t.co/vLr71cOrar #Gemini #AI

[Greg Jackson @gregoryljackson]

BofA Warns It’s Time to ‘Take Profits’ as Red Flags Multiply https://t.co/WcFsohNOdZ #Stocks #Stockmarket #Investing

[Greg Jackson @gregoryljackson]

“The market always tests the new Fed.” - Tom Lee
The test could mean a 10%+ drop - or more - in the S&P 500 as investors push on policy limits and credibility. Expect volatility. https://t.co/ws60EDxsJo #Stocks #Fed

[Dan Niles @DanielTNiles]

On March 31st, I titled my post “History May not Repeat Itself but it often does Rhyme.” In 1997 due to the Asian currency crisis and in 1998 due to the Russian bond default, the S&P despite having an intra-year drawdown of 11% and 19% respectively, finished the year up 31% and 27%. This was in year 3 and 4 of the internet infrastructure buildout. My view was 2026, which was year 4 of the AI buildout, would also see a solid rebound especially given a war can get walked back versus the structural issues in 97/98. In addition, Agentic AI was ramping which required 10-100x more tokens versus Chat-based AI.

After a 9% intra-year drawdown from 1/27-3/30, the S&P has now rebounded 12% with just one down day over the past 13 trading sessions as the war with Iran heads to a conclusion. It took just 11 trading days for the S&P RSI to go from oversold to overbought which is the fastest since 1982.

The Nasdaq has been even more impressive with a 13 consecutive day winning streak over which it gained 18%. This is the longest streak since 12 consecutive days of gains in 1992 with a gain of 16% for perspective.

Future positives include a new Chairman of the Fed likely by mid-May who was chosen largely due to his preference to cut rates and continue the easy money policies that have fueled this market over the past 3 years. In addition, the AI infrastructure buildout seems to be taking another step function higher with the emergence of Agentic AI earlier this year fueling token production which requires more hardware.

But first comes the meat of earnings. There was lackluster stock performance last week by important tech stocks which reported earnings such as $ASML (-1%), $TSM (flat) and $NFLX (-6%). In addition, their were mixed results by the big banks which reported this past week such as $WFC -5% but $C +6%. But despite this, the S&P financials sector as a whole still gained 3% with much better results seen in the S&P (+5%), Nasdaq (+7%), R2K (+6%) and Magnificent 7 (+9%.)

A 13% decline in WTI last week to $84 on positive Iran headlines was the major catalyst of the market rally. Having said that, it was in the mid-$60s before the war started and the S&P is at all-time record highs. Looking to what the market is discounting looking forward, the 12 month futures contract is about $71 and was down 3% last week but it was in the low-$60s prior to the war.

10 year treasury yields also seem to reflect the higher oil prices. They were close to 4.0% before the Iran war and while down from their highs of closer to 4.5% they are still around 4.25%.

Finally, the S&P is technically overbought as noted earlier due to the speed and gains during this 13 day rally.

As a result of the above factors of: 1) higher oil, 2) higher bond yields and 3) overbought technicals with the market at all-time record highs, the near-term risk versus reward in my opinion is not great. I am expecting a minor pullback. A sell the news reaction to the final settlement around Iran or further angst around the opening of the Strait and under what terms could easily do this as well especially if oil does not come down further. But I would use a minor pull-back to add exposure. During 1997/98 following those macro scares during the internet buildout, after the prior losses were recouped and the market went to new highs, the pullbacks were contained to around 5%.

All the best in the week ahead.

[Greg Jackson @gregoryljackson]

A whopping one-third of US home sellers slash their listing prices — as the scale now favors buyers https://t.co/QWXNuDVR3s via @@YahooFinance #RealEstate #Housing

[Greg Jackson @gregoryljackson]

https://t.co/groY4XzAYm #RealEstate #Housing

[Greg Jackson @gregoryljackson]

Larry Williams 2026 Market Forecast https://t.co/pGD8N34KMx #Stocks #Investing #LarryWilliams

[Greg Jackson @gregoryljackson]

Arrived Raises $27 Million in New Funding to Launch the Stock Market for Real Estate https://t.co/ZR45Hh0Pwh #Arrived #RealEstate

[Greg Jackson @gregoryljackson]

@alex_prompter Claude

[Greg Jackson @gregoryljackson]

It Feels Like 1999 Again! https://t.co/23UDUzFyG8 #Stocks #Investing #FinancialSamurai

[Dan Niles @DanielTNiles]

During the last govt shutdown, on 1st day (12/24/18) S&P -2.7% after 17.5% decline since 9/20/18 on initial China trade war/growth concerns. But S&P +10.3% over entire 35 day shutdown w/ 12/24 the low. Set-up today is very different & riskier w/ mkt near highs vs lows.

My belief is this shutdown could last even longer than in 2018 but that other factors will ultimately matter more such as 1) upcoming Q3 earnings being solid, 2) AI euphoria continuing with the Mag7 reporting solid qtrs and 3) the next Fed mtg on 10/29 where I expect the Fed to stay on its course to cut rates three times this year.

In summary, I believe that despite the potential for some near-term choppiness, the mkt will ultimately see new highs as it slowly grinds higher.

[Greg Jackson @gregoryljackson]

https://t.co/0BAYxmozcM #RealEstate

[Greg Jackson @gregoryljackson]

Stack your $30 bonus on top of Cash Back at over 3,500 stores. Use my link to join for free. Terms apply.* https://t.co/cFcwvSNH7r #Cashback

[Greg Jackson @gregoryljackson]

Your Retirement Side Hustle Starter Kit: The Essential Tools and Apps You Need https://t.co/r91JyQtrZH #Retirement

[Greg Jackson @gregoryljackson]

https://t.co/Yhmt9cDhey #BostonRealEstate #RealEstate

[Greg Jackson @gregoryljackson]

Are we in a housing bubble? https://t.co/2j7RaKcP59 #RealEstate #BostonRealEstate #ReventureConsulting

[Greg Jackson @gregoryljackson]

3 tips for selling your home in today's housing market
https://t.co/72kP3imOd2 #RealEstate #Boston

[Greg Jackson @gregoryljackson]

The best movies on Netflix right now #Netflix #Movies https://t.co/XmZVrE7C8D

[Greg Jackson @gregoryljackson]

Worked with early AI leaders (Cognitive Systems, Inference Corp), just finished The Coming Wave by Mustafa Suleyman—powerful read on the risks ahead.

Made a quick comparison to Future Shock—change is still the story, but stakes are way higher.

#AI #FutureShock #TheComingWave