Greg | SMB Valuation & Ops

15+ yrs serial SMB builder, bootstrapped from $6k. Ex-BX PE. Write about SMB valuation, ops & markets. ❤️ science.

[Greg | SMB Valuation & Ops @GregoryPHuang]

@doodlestein Was listening to an earrings call for $AMN when it was trading around $500m mkt cap; and out of nowhere he starts asking questions like any other analyst on the call. Love of the game is strong

[Greg | SMB Valuation & Ops @GregoryPHuang]

@realEstateTrent Marginal buyer (incl various sources of passive) vs marginal seller dynamics during a “this time is different” bull market

[Greg | SMB Valuation & Ops @GregoryPHuang]

Eg, interesting to see $UBER burn its AI coding budget in four months and responded by capping engineers at $1,500/mo... vs Stripe's Minions doing stuff like this:
https://t.co/TsdRj6B25l

[Greg | SMB Valuation & Ops @GregoryPHuang]

Started using Fable 5 (mostly claude code) on Tues, and it's been incredible. Almost as incredible: after June 22 the only way to keep using it is usage billing at API rates, $10/$50 per million tokens.

[Greg | SMB Valuation & Ops @GregoryPHuang]

Hard to see how anyone paid above a certain $/yr uses anything else *right now*, token prices or not. Which makes token spend a performance signal. Spend vs quality and quantity of output tells you who compounds with these tools.

[Greg | SMB Valuation & Ops @GregoryPHuang]

Rough est of $8-$10tn in white collar wages in US alone; 20% conservative could be done by Ai = $1.6-$2tn in Ai token spend. FYI, I believe, just like past tech cycles, there will be more total jobs in future; but most white collar work as is today will be different/obsolete. Eg Claude Designer = I no longer need a freelance graphic designer + my prev graphic design software tools

[Greg | SMB Valuation & Ops @GregoryPHuang]

@atelicinvest FWIW as an SMB owner seems very probable given current US, let alone global adoption

[Greg | SMB Valuation & Ops @GregoryPHuang]

@natolambert

[Greg | SMB Valuation & Ops @GregoryPHuang]

@PenguinWeb3

[Greg | SMB Valuation & Ops @GregoryPHuang]

@valuedontlie @ClarkSquareCap If proprietary data is hard to reproduce + (in)direct value driver; otherwise Ai is reaaally good. Esp Claude opus 4.8; codex 5.5

[Greg | SMB Valuation & Ops @GregoryPHuang]

Labor market is softening.

Unemployment: 4.4% (highest since 2021).
ISM services employment: 48.2 (below 50 = contraction).
BLS: payrolls roughly flat since April.

Downturns often cut deal multiples 20-40% from peak.

[Greg | SMB Valuation & Ops @GregoryPHuang]

I review macro data monthly. December 2025 has signals SMB owners should know before deciding to sell or wait.

10 posts. Numbers, not opinions.

[Greg | SMB Valuation & Ops @GregoryPHuang]

Buyers are competing.

HY spreads ~2.9%, near cycle tights.
PE dry powder near record highs ($2T+ uncalled).

Aggressive bidding, available leverage, rising risk appetite.

This is late-cycle behavior, not early.

[Greg | SMB Valuation & Ops @GregoryPHuang]

SBA lending is flowing.

Fed funds: 3.75-4% (down from 5.5% peak).
FY24 SBA-backed financing: ~$56B; 7(a) loans ~$31B, near decade highs.

Rates are ~150 bps lower than mid-2024, easing buyer financing.

[Greg | SMB Valuation & Ops @GregoryPHuang]

Despite:
$326M impairment (Q2)
$740M impairments (H1)
GAAP loss of $308M
$HELE still generated $23M positive FCF YTD.
How? Tariff pre-buying (purchased inventory ahead at lower cost), aggressive WC management, capex cuts.

[Greg | SMB Valuation & Ops @GregoryPHuang]

Helen of Troy ($HELE): Q2 earnings beat estimates. Stock FELL 22% anyway.
Why? Adjusted EPS -51% ($1.21→$0.59). Organic sales -16% (masked by acquisition). Gross margin -140 bps despite supplier negotiations.
Translation: Even beating expectations isn't enough when fundamentals are broken.
What $1.7B HELE's struggle signals for SMBs: 🧵

[Greg | SMB Valuation & Ops @GregoryPHuang]

CEO Noel Geoffroy: Departed June 2025
Interim CEO (CFO): June-Aug 2025
New CEO Scott Uzzell: Started Sept 1 (5 weeks before earnings)
His quote: "No quick fixes... focused on fixing our foundation"
Leadership instability + turnaround language = multi-year recovery at best.
For SMBs: Stability = competitive advantage right now.