Gustav C. Gressel

Security and defense expert | PhD in Strategic Studies | NATO, EU, Eastern Europe, and global security affairs

[Gustav C. Gressel @GresselGustav]

I declined interviews on the Trump-Putin nonsense. I don't want to speculate on rumours and I don't think it will deliver substance. However I created my first #substack text on what challenges lie ahead for 🇪🇺 supporting 🇺🇦 alone: https://t.co/b6kF3hn3pR

[Evgen Vorobyov @vorobyov]

This article is quite a useful read for those who believe that russia will not dare open a new front against NATO members as long as it continues its war in Ukraine.
This observation is particularly spot-on when it comes to the way that the russians are likely to be assessing the level of readiness of NATO armed Forces in case of such an attack:
"NATO militaries are not pursuing the larger force sizes that would enable them to hold the line, or the mass adoption of drones and drone formations within their force structure that would allow them to achieve effects similar to those of the Ukrainian Armed Forces" https://t.co/ORRmJASBeI

[Shashank Joshi @shashj]

'there were more Russian soldiers attacking Pokrovsk, which is one medium-sized town in Donbass last year, than are in the entire British Army. And so, when people think of it in manoeuvrist terms they're like, “well, maybe you go left flanking”. It's like, “yeah, there's another force there and it's also as big as the entire British Army, right?” There is not empty space here that you can just cut through. These are really large formations and, unless you can inflict a pretty high threshold of damage within a limited period of time, then you're not going to break through.' https://t.co/Z4AhZxWb6E

[Gustav C. Gressel @GresselGustav]

@SF19411190 @Konflikt_Sicher @Bundesheerbauer @kaikowsky Nachdem Trump die Exportrestriktionen für Hochleistungschips nach 🇨🇳 aufgehoben hat, wo finden sich die Dinger jetzt 🤔

[Tatarigami_UA @Tatarigami_UA]

One of the most interesting things about the Middle Strike campaign is that almost every road strike reported by bloggers, journalists, and even analysts is attributed to the Hornet. Yet at least two other prominent drones are used extensively but are almost never mentioned.

[Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 @IAPonomarenko]

Among Zelensky's main shortcomings as president are his endless favoritism and his carelessness in personnel policy.

Ever since 2019, there has always been someone this guy, someone at his shoulder, standing behind Zelensky and quietly whispering things into his ear. First it was the notorious lawyer Andriy Bohdan, then, until recently, the untouchable gray cardinal Andriy Yermak, then someone else.

The current situation with the reported threat of dismissing the popular young defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov reminds me of early 2020, when Zelensky suddenly fired his first defense minister, Andriy Zahorodniuk.

It seemed that, after a succession of post-Soviet parade generals, the new president had appointed the country's first genuine civilian defense minister in line with the Western principle of civilian control over the military, a man from senior business management.

Many long-overdue reforms got underway, there was a clear plan, and anti-corruption watchdogs were quite pleased.

But nope -- Less than six months later, Zelensky fired Zahorodniuk before allowing him to finish almost anything he had started.

Because he had "failed to prove himself." At the time, however, the circles around the Defense Ministry, the Presidential Office, and the press persistently said that the sudden decision had been pushed by none other than Andriy Yermak, who had become head of the Presidential Office just a couple of weeks earlier and immediately began putting his own people in place and getting rid of those he disliked.

After his dismissal, Zahorodniuk insisted in conversations that he had never had any conflict with Yermak, but the press of those years persistently reported that Yermak had convinced Zelensky to throw out the defense minister because he objected to the then-time drama of pulling back Ukrainian troops from the frontline with Russian-controlled militant formations in Donbas.

The business manager in a suit was replaced by yet another post-Soviet general from the military bureaucracy, Andriy Taran -- who, during his two years in office became memorable mainly for being unable to string two words together and for constantly failing to complete the state defense procurement program.

That is how we ended up with the endless, barely comprehensible carousel of reshuffles, dismissals, and appointments, which people here in Ukraine sometimes refer to as "rearranging the beds in a brothel."

And now it is starting again.

Fedorov, with enormous progress in Ukraine's digital transformation behind him, has served as defense minister for only about six months.

He managed to cut Russians off from Starlink, drone production is booming, digitalization is accelerating, processes are being optimized, AI is being introduced on a massive scale, and there is now a strategy for technological superiority over Russia.

And that's it -- Fedorov has already fallen out of favor because the young IT guy did not get along with General Syrskyi and his methods of working.

And, according to rumors, Fedorov and his reforms have become a thorn in the side of those who have gotten too used to making very good money from military production.

Now Ihor Klymenko, the interior minister and former chief of the National Police, is reportedly being lined up to replace Fedorov. He is remembered mainly for his video in which he boasted about how National Guard recruits are drilled obsessively to make their beds with the sheets aligned perfectly to a string.

Every time our Defense Ministry starts climbing even half a head above the stagnant swamp, Zelensky's favorites always pop up and whisper in his ear -- urging him to appoint yet another mediocrity who would be comfortable for everyone, change nothing, and get in nobody's way.

That is how we live and fight -- two steps forward, one and a half steps back.

[Gustav C. Gressel @GresselGustav]

@AnSir86 @deaidua Sehe ich auch so.

[Gustav C. Gressel @GresselGustav]

Oh boy...

[Rob Lee @RALee85]

.@lb_ua reports that the current Minister of Internal Affairs Ihor Klymenko could replace Mykhailo Fedorov as Minister of Defense as part of the government reshuffle.
https://t.co/qjWgg3ImVY

[Matthias Wachter @Wachter__M]

Ohne die USA geht bei Patriot nichts. Weder Produktion noch Abgabe von Systemen an die Ukraine. Europa hätte in den vergangenen vier Jahren eigene Fähigkeiten zur ballistischen Raketenabwehr aufbauen müssen. Stattdessen blieb man abhängig von Patriot und kann jetzt nicht liefern.

[Roman Sheremeta 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @rshereme]

This is deeply disturbing.

An extremist group known as Narodowa Straż Kamracka (Kamracka People's Guard) has begun appearing in Polish cities wearing dark navy uniforms deliberately resembling those of the police. From a distance, many people could easily mistake them for law enforcement. Across their backs is the word "POLSKA", with "Narodowa Straż Kamracka" written underneath.

The group is linked to the Rodacy Kamraci movement led by Wojciech Olszański ("Jaszczur") and Marcin Osadowski - a movement widely known for anti-Ukrainian rhetoric, antisemitism, and the promotion of pro-Kremlin narratives.

Their members march through the streets, recruit supporters, and use nationalist slogans that many Poles view as intimidation rather than patriotism.

This should concern everyone. Democracies cannot allow extremist organizations to blur the line between themselves and legitimate law enforcement while spreading hatred and fear.

History has shown where political militias and extremist movements can lead. Poland - and Europe - should take this seriously.

[Gustav C. Gressel @GresselGustav]

@CMantseris Oh ja.

[Gustav C. Gressel @GresselGustav]

Hat das BSW hat meine Blockliste geklaut?

[Wagenknecht Watch @WagenWatch]

Ja, das klingt wie die Gästeliste für die Geburtstagsparty von Jana aus Kassel, aber nein, es ist das "Festival der Meinungsfreiheit" des BSW.

[Gustav C. Gressel @GresselGustav]

@Andreas_Hopf @Martin_Sauer Roland Popp gehört auch auf die Liste.

[Gustav C. Gressel @GresselGustav]

Einordnung was Ankara für die 🇺🇦 bedeutet in Podcast form. Mit @JanJessen bei der @morgenpost gesprochen.
https://t.co/ftw2IFIeL9

[Christo Grozev @christogrozev]

BREAKING:
Shooting for the Stars: secret military documents we obtained show China fully involved with supporting Russian war in Ukraine and plans against the West, even offered a contingency plan to shoot down @elonmusk's Starlink. https://t.co/uFfZtB7jde

[bot blocker | блокировщик ботов @antibot4navalny]

Russian-state influence campaign targets the Sep2026 elections in 2 states of Germany.

It pits East Germans and West Germans against each other.

In these (both eastern) states, AfD can potentially secure state power for the first time in German history.

https://t.co/lwaGTG13II

[Shaun Pinner @ShaunPinnerUA]

They are absolutely not wired up right. If this isn’t genocidal rhetoric, I don’t know what is.

This is a member of the Russian elite openly talking about the extermination of Ukrainians.

Alexey Zhuravlev, First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee

[Christopher Miller @ChristopherJM]

Ukraine's former top general: "A growing number of Western analysts now argue that Russia has effectively lost the war... That is a dangerous misreading of the war. It reflects a tendency to interpret events through the lens of individual battlefield successes rather than the wider strategic picture."

[Gustav C. Gressel @GresselGustav]

Gestern bei @ArminWolf in der #ZiB2 zum #NATO Gipfel in #Ankara: Trump bei Laune zu halten ist Teil der Show, die Nato zu europäisieren die eigentliche Herausforderung.
https://t.co/qcFVptq4vf

[Gustav C. Gressel @GresselGustav]

Heute Abend 2200h 👇

[ZiB2-Vorschau @ZiB2_Vorschau]

Heute in der #ZIB2:
- ÖVP-Generalsekretär Nico Marchetti tritt zurück
- Rechnungshof kritisiert Spitzengagen und Milliardenrücklagen der Wirtschaftskammer
- NATO-Gipfel in Ankara: Militärexperte Gustav Gressel live im Studio
- Marine Le Pen erzielt vor Gericht einen Teilerfolg

[IISS News @IISS_org]

NATO’s regional defence plans divide Europe into three operational fronts, but the emerging architecture exposes issues in command, rear-area sustainment and the availability of enabling forces required to turn headquarters into warfighting formations.

Ahead of the NATO Summit in Ankara, read the full analysis by Ruben Stewart (@2eatsoup): https://t.co/YBsnURd2DG