Alokesh Phukan

Catching falling knives with random precision

[Alokesh Phukan @greyfool]

In the world of securities, courage becomes the supreme virtue after adequate knowledge and a tested judgment are at hand.
~ Benjamin Graham

[Alokesh Phukan @greyfool]

Waited a while to see an Indian bowler actually spin the ball in test matches ! 😛 #ManavSuthar #INDVsAFG

[Alokesh Phukan @greyfool]

Analyst: When will your "battery cell" unit go into production?
Mgmt: Civil works for our solar cell manufacturing unit will start next month. Production by next yr... 🤣
#LostInTranslation #Concall #smallcaps

[Alokesh Phukan @greyfool]

So Mensik it is who is the last of the trio standing! Loved his all court game vs Fonseca. Needs to improve his 2nd serve but rest of his game is already at a very high level. #FrenchOpen

[Alokesh Phukan @greyfool]

Lot of new players breaking out at this yrs #FrenchOpen. Mensik, Fonseca & Joddar are in the quarter finals & all three are 20 yr or less! They all have very powerful games. Yet to figure out whom to root for. Maybe Mensik... 🧐#IdleNotes

[Alokesh Phukan @greyfool]

Several co's were candid in explaining current risks facing them & detailed plans to mitigate them. Mkts taking this as cue to punish them. Other co's that gave super bullish targets for next several yrs that defied their past record are up big...☺️ #DejaVu

[Alokesh Phukan @greyfool]

Thinking about these comments by Vesuvius on RHI's high cost takeover of basic bricks(Dalmia) & a overpriced 30 yr old plant(Hi-tech). Wrote off 600 cr goodwill(still 300 cr left 😛) citing geopolitical conditions yesterday ! 😂 #RHIMagnesita

[Alokesh Phukan @greyfool]

Vesuvius has aggressively added capacity organically over last 2 yrs. And their mgmt had stuff to say about RHI's recent moves... 😛

[Alokesh Phukan @greyfool]

It's that time in the cycle for some sectors when P & L seems to trump the cash flow statement, even if that is mostly rubbish ! 🧐🙄 #IdleNotes

[Alokesh Phukan @greyfool]

A bit over the moon since I finally figured out that one of my recent positions fits one of Peter Lynch's favourite filters. A declining sector where the competition has checked out... ☺️

[Alokesh Phukan @greyfool]

@jaganmsna Founder QRG(who was on his deathbed by then) wanted Anil Gupta to buy Crompton.

[Alokesh Phukan @greyfool]

Havells was an interested party a while back in 2014. Maybe that ship has sailed ? 🤔

[RedboxGlobal India @REDBOXINDIA]

CROMPTON CONSUMER: ADITYA BIRLA GROUP AMONG OTHERS IN RACE TO ACQUIRE MAJORITY STAKE IN CROMPTON CONSUMER - CNBCTV18

[Alokesh Phukan @greyfool]

Still have my old cassettes somewhere... #Nostalgia

[Science girl @sciencegirl]

These were all released within 57 days of each other in 1991

[Ian Cassel @iancassel]

To be right in the long-term, you must be willing to look wrong in the short-term.

[Alokesh Phukan @greyfool]

Lots of listed co's that are already providing liquid cooling solutions for Data Centers or are working on it. If demand is anywhere as large as forecasted it will be a deluge in every segment soon. Tech is not as big a moat as we think... ☺️ #IdleNotes

[tushar @tushar9590]

There is only one listed AI compute infra service co in India: E2E Networks

There is only one listed AI compute infra hardware co in India: Netweb Technologies

There is only one listed Hot Box Assemblies supplier in India that goes into AI Datacenter powering: Mtar Technologies

There is only one listed AI datacenter cooling hardware/components co in India: KRN Heat Exchanger

There is only one listed AI datacenter liquid cooling flow solutions / skid assemblies co in India: Aeroflex Industries Ltd

And All have had crazy runups.

[Alokesh Phukan @greyfool]

As it turns out very good in getting me up to speed in new businesses too. Only issue is that I'm venturing a bit out of my COC. As of now treating these positions as small trades. All for the sake of improving my AI skills... 😛 #IdleNotes

[Alokesh Phukan @greyfool]

Well just to keep myself busy, trying some AI based analysis. Mostly asking queries I already know the answers to for now. I'm super slow in learning anything new so probably doing it all wrong. But now I can replace my badly scribbled notes, if I wanted to... 😛 #IdleNotes

[Alokesh Phukan @greyfool]

Why compare with US or Europe? Better to look at China. Per capita consumption of cement in india is 290 kg per person vs 1600 Kg in China. We have decades to go before this sector plateaus like it has in China!

[Giriraj Daga @GirirajDaga5]

If UltraTech today rivals entire regions in capacity, it raises a deeper question -

As India moves towards developed status, will cement demand scale the same way?

History from the US and Europe suggests otherwise.

Are we building for the future — or overbuilding for the past?

[Alokesh Phukan @greyfool]

Currently reviewing my capital allocation over the past 3 yrs. Pretty humbling process. Same conclusion as always. "I was such an idiot to have missed x, y & z sectors..." 😂 #DejaVu

[Alokesh Phukan @greyfool]

Best offensive player(also the best overall player) vs the best defensive player & it's a no contest. Just like it has been for past 2-3 yrs ☺️

[NBA @NBA]

Still thinking about last night's Jokić shot...

Pump fake the pass.
Shot clock winding down...
Spin. Fade. RIDICULOUS. 🃏

8 STRAIGHT WINS FOR DENVER.

[Alokesh Phukan @greyfool]

Given his experiential learning at Marcellus over the past decade, the only question to ask Saurabh of course is - "Does he still think valuations don't matter " ? 😜 #IdleNotes

[Neil Borate @ActusDei]

Almost a decade after Coffee Can Investing, Saurabh Mukherjea says the idea is dead. Consumption has crawled. Those fabled moated compounders aren't compounding. And India, he warns, is heading for a 1991-style crisis.
Here's what he told us at a @thefynprint event. 🧵

[Alokesh Phukan @greyfool]

https://t.co/NWiuejaMmS

[Alokesh Phukan @greyfool]

FII's posed to create a new record for maximum sales in a month in India crossing $12 Billion! 🤔

[Alokesh Phukan @greyfool]

"...here I go again on my own
Goin' down the only road I've ever known"
~ Here I go again, #Whitesnake 🤞