Gridiron AI

We help sports bettors with winning picks, and #fantasyfootball and #dfs players set winning lineups using #AI and #analytics. Use code X50 for 50%.

[Gridiron AI @gridironai]

Trench watch, Week 7: the biggest pass-rush mismatches (sacks + QB hits per dropback, league percentile).

DET rush (84) vs GB protection (13)
DEN rush (97) vs ARI protection (32)
MIN rush (100) vs IND protection (35)
KC rush (58) vs SEA protection (6)

#fantasyfootball

[Gridiron AI @gridironai]

The playoff race after Week 6, from 10,000 simulations of the season:

Climbing: SF 44% → 96%, MIN 50% → 90%, KC 52% → 91%
Falling: LAC 49% → 1%, PHI 63% → 25%

Biggest Week 6 swing: LAR, down 23 points.

#fantasyfootball

[Gridiron AI @gridironai]

Why leave the lines out? To see where the numbers alone disagree with the market. Vegas knows injuries beyond the QB and we don't, so these aren't picks.

QB changes do count: J.J. McCarthy starting for NYG moved our NYG @ HOU number 4 points.

#fantasyfootball

[Gridiron AI @gridironai]

Model vs. Vegas, Week 7: our numbers-only ratings vs. the line. No betting lines go into our model, just results and the starting QB.

Biggest gap: MIA @ NYJ. Market NYJ -4.5, our numbers NYJ -1.8.

Tonight: we have CHI -3.2, the market CHI -3.

#fantasyfootball

[Gridiron AI @gridironai]

Draft day vs. now: where QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs went in August drafts vs. where our rest-of-season projections rank them before Week 7.

Biggest climbs: Braelon Allen (RB56 → RB23), Malik Washington (WR66 → WR23), Bryce Young (QB25 → QB3)

#fantasyfootball

[Gridiron AI @gridironai]

Team tiers through Week 6: every offense and defense by EPA per play.

Best net (offense minus defense): SF +0.24, KC +0.22, MIN +0.13
Worst: MIA −0.22, LAC −0.17, PHI −0.17

6 weeks is a small sample: what's happened, not a forecast.

#fantasyfootball

[Gridiron AI @gridironai]

The receipts, Week 6: we projected every fantasy starter; here's how it went.

Average miss: 5.6 pts, 48% within 5.
Biggest boom: Tre Tucker, 10.1 projected, 26.7 scored.
Biggest miss: Derrick Henry, 17.9 projected, 5.0 scored.

#fantasyfootball

[Gridiron AI @gridironai]

Where the money went, Week 6: how spreads moved, and bets vs. dollars.

Biggest move: CAR @ PHI, 4.5 pts toward CAR (PHI -1.5 to +3).

Moved against most bettors: BAL @ CLE (56% on BAL, line to CLE); BUF @ LV (68% on BUF, line to LV).

Market data, not picks.

#fantasyfootball

[Gridiron AI @gridironai]

Trench watch, Week 6: the biggest pass-rush mismatches (sacks + QB hits per dropback, league percentile).

BUF rush (71) vs LV protection (6)
NE rush (68) vs NYJ protection (10)
BAL rush (55) vs CLE protection (3)
KC rush (48) vs LAC protection (0)

#fantasyfootball

[Gridiron AI @gridironai]

Team tiers through Week 5: every offense and defense by EPA per play.

Best net (offense minus defense): SF +0.26, KC +0.19, JAX +0.18
Worst: MIA −0.22, TEN −0.19, PHI −0.16

5 weeks is a small sample: what's happened, not a forecast.

#fantasyfootball

[Gridiron AI @gridironai]

The receipts, Week 5: we projected every fantasy starter; here's how it went.

Average miss: 7.3 pts, 38% within 5.
Biggest boom: Jaylen Warren, 14.1 projected, 36.8 scored.
Biggest miss: Tyler Shough, 15.7 projected, -0.2 scored.

#fantasyfootball

[Gridiron AI @gridironai]

Where the money went, Week 5: how spreads moved, and bets vs. dollars.

Biggest move: BAL @ ATL, 7 pts toward ATL (ATL +3.5 to -3.5).

Moved against most bettors: BAL @ ATL (55% on BAL, line to ATL); CHI @ GB (57% on CHI, line to GB).

Market data, not picks.

#fantasyfootball

[Gridiron AI @gridironai]

Trench watch, Week 5: the biggest pass-rush mismatches (sacks + QB hits per dropback, league percentile).

DEN rush (97) vs LAC protection (0)
CHI rush (61) vs GB protection (6)
CLE rush (74) vs NYJ protection (23)
MIN rush (100) vs NO protection (61)

#fantasyfootball

[Gridiron AI @gridironai]

The playoff race after Week 4, from 10,000 simulations of the season:

Climbing: SF 44% → 84%, KC 52% → 86%, MIN 50% → 79%
Falling: LAC 48% → 9%, HOU 60% → 23%

Biggest Week 4 swing: ATL, up 21 points.

#fantasyfootball

[Gridiron AI @gridironai]

Why leave the lines out? To see where the numbers alone disagree with the market. Vegas knows injuries beyond the QB and we don't, so these aren't picks.

QB changes do count: Jalon Daniels starting for TB moved our TB @ DAL number 3 points.

#fantasyfootball

[Gridiron AI @gridironai]

Model vs. Vegas, Week 5: our numbers-only ratings vs. the line. No betting lines go into our model, just results and the starting QB.

Biggest gap: HOU @ TEN. Market HOU -7.5, our numbers HOU -4.5.

Tonight: we have DAL -7.1, the market DAL -8.5.

#fantasyfootball

[Gridiron AI @gridironai]

Draft day vs. now: where QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs went in August drafts vs. where our rest-of-season projections rank them before Week 5.

Biggest climbs: Aaron Jones (RB41 → RB15), Malik Washington (WR66 → WR24), Bryce Young (QB25 → QB7)

#fantasyfootball

[Gridiron AI @gridironai]

The receipts, Week 4: we projected every fantasy starter; here's how it went.

Average miss: 6.4 pts, 49% within 5.
Biggest boom: Tetairoa McMillan, 11.6 projected, 45.2 scored.
Biggest miss: Parker Washington, 16.3 projected, 2.0 scored.

#fantasyfootball

[Gridiron AI @gridironai]

Where the money went, Week 4: how spreads moved, and bets vs. dollars.

Biggest move: IND @ WAS, 1.5 pts toward IND (WAS +3 to +4.5).

Moved against most bettors: IND @ WAS (59% on WAS, line to IND); DAL @ HOU (80% on DAL, line to HOU).

Market data, not picks.

#fantasyfootball

[Gridiron AI @gridironai]

Trench watch, Week 4: the biggest pass-rush mismatches (sacks + QB hits per dropback, league percentile).

SEA rush (87) vs LAC protection (3)
BUF rush (94) vs NE protection (32)
LV rush (90) vs KC protection (45)
JAX rush (52) vs CIN protection (26)

#fantasyfootball