The School Gardener

Year 2 teacher keen to transform our grounds and enhance biodiversity. Interests: wellbeing, mental health, sustainability, parental engagement. Computing lead.

[Faiza Shaheen @faizashaheen]

This graph shows the Faiza Shaheen campaign's latest figures.

There are lots of numbers and bar charts in circulation in Chingford & Woodford Green, which makes life difficult because many of you are trying to work out the best way to defeat IDS. Having dedicated a big chunk of my life to beating Iain Duncan Smith since 2018, there’re probably very few who understand that desire more than me! To clear up any doubts, I thought I’d write this post to explain what our figures show.

Key points about our data:

1) This is based on thousands of doorstep conversations across the constituency. The graph makes it clear that it is based on canvassing data, not an opinion poll. Yes this is imperfect, but in the absence of detailed local opinion polling, it's all there is to go on. We knock on every door with registered voters.

2) Labour and the Conservatives also have canvassing data and, in all likelihood, it’s showing the same sort of voting intention as ours (if their figures were different, they probably would have made their way onto social media by now...)

3) Undecideds are being assigned using the Redfield-Wilton method, which is used by all the opinion poll companies to temper their results. This involves reallocating undecided voters in line with national polling trends. If we did not do this, the picture painted by the data would look even better for our independent campaign.

4) The point of sharing the graph is to emphasise that the tactical vote to beat the Conservatives is now less likely to be a Labour one.

The graphs being pushed by the Labour Party are based on what is called a MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification), a way of modelling voter preferences based on a combination of national trends and previous behaviour. This method makes them seriously flawed for a situation like ours. Their graphs are mainly based on 2019 data and don’t factor in the additional candidates standing in 2024. They also fail to reflect that when I stood as a Labour candidate my team pulled off a swing to Labour that was completely at odds with the collapse in Labour's national vote share. That's less helpful than publishing canvassing returns.

Furthermore, this polling weights for different demographics - but interestingly not religion, which is important for this election because a large share of Muslim voters will no longer be voting Labour because of their position on Palestine.

The decision of which way to vote has been difficult for so many of you – and I get that. After all, I was the Labour candidate until a matter of weeks ago and have knocked doors every weekend since I was reselected in 2022 to build up Labour’s reputation here.

But I am now your independent, local candidate. I am running a positive campaign that talks about what our community needs and what it could be. Labour split the vote here when they deselected me. I ran the marathon, winning the biggest vote for Labour here in the worst election defeat for a generation, only for an unknown, unsupported candidate to be imposed 200 yards before the finish line.

In the midst of flawed and outdated data being touted as truth, I ask you to make your decision with your heart and your head by voting for me, the local candidate who will be standing up for this community first and foremost.

This is our chance for a new type of politics, even the data agrees.

Read more about methods:
https://t.co/xxH7QiwDbM
https://t.co/dNfgXCITc8...

[Faiza Shaheen @faizashaheen]

If you’re sick of faceless, robotic politicians parroting the same lines over and over again, politicians who have no connection to our community, then there’s only one choice on the ballot paper on Thursday.

Vote Faiza Shaheen, Independent, this 4 July.

Come and be a part of the movement for real change: https://t.co/KQsvw8SoCg

🎥 Jack Raja-Isaac

[Faiza Shaheen @faizashaheen]

If you're worried that voting for me as an Independent candidate will split the vote in Chingford and Woodford Green, you shouldn’t be. I’ve spent years fighting IDS and the last thing I want is to see him keep his seat. So if you know someone that wants to vote for me but is worried by national polling, share this video and tell them these three simple things:

1. Two of the biggest tactical voting sites in this country have withdrawn their recommendation of voting Labour here to get the Tories out.

2. Our data, from thousands of random conversations in the constituency, show that I’m ahead in the race. The Faiza Shaheen campaign has the most votes pledged.

3. Labour are going to win in a national landslide, so we need a critical voice in Westminster holding them to account.

Don’t risk Iain Duncan Smith getting back in, vote for the person actually invested in our community.

Vote Faiza Shaheen, Independent, on 4 July.

https://t.co/0AksgQYo7T

[The School Gardener @GrowingTeacher]

@LonglandsEco This looks fantastic - Longlands children and families are really lucky to have such an amazing set up!

[Black Mountains College / Coleg y Mynydd Du @bmc_college]

Yes, we’re doing that here! @GrowForTalgarth and at our new campus. @WmPowell2021

[The School Gardener @GrowingTeacher]

And school grounds and playing fields over the summer holidays...

[Little Green Space 🦋 @LGSpace]

Even a small reduction in mowing - including on public spaces like parks, road islands and roadverges - can boost wildlife & wildflowers, help pollinating insects, and save money. An easy way to give nature a chance 🐝
#ClimateAction⁠ ⁠#biodiversity

[The School Gardener @GrowingTeacher]

@PTES Hi, our school is planning a wildlife hedge all along one of our boundaries. We are keen to encourage as much wildlife as possible - what should we defiantly include? #schoolgardening #climatemergency #wildlifehedge

[The School Gardener @GrowingTeacher]

Thank you @bulbs4kids_uk - we heard that our application was successful and that our bulb kits will be arriving in the Autumn! #schoolgardening #schoolallotment #plantforpollinators #climateemergency #growyourownflowers

[The School Gardener @GrowingTeacher]

Hey @HantsIWWildlife our school is keen to be part of #teamwilder! We want to plant a wildlife hedge all along our boundary - lots of wildlife, great colours and lots of blossom. What should we plant? #schoolgardening #schoolallotment #climateemergency #greenerbritain #rewilding

[Self Sufficient Schools @VegSchoolMeals]

@MossHallSchools @FrithManor @frith_events @TheSchoolSeedB1 @LizVFisher @GrowingTeacher

[The School Gardener @GrowingTeacher]

@Zoehowa33570170 Wow!

[Little Green Space 🦋 @LGSpace]

The many many many reasons for protecting nature include the fact that it's endlessly amazing! As shown by these sandpipers and their stunning boomerang-shaped display.

[The School Gardener @GrowingTeacher]

Also they will fill in a growth record on seesaw too. They are really enjoying sending in pics of their progress!

[The School Gardener @GrowingTeacher]

In science we are growing purple climbing french beans - the children took them home and the homework is to grow them! They love taking pics to share on Seesaw too. #seesaw #schoolgarden #schoolallotment #garden #allotment #gardening #growyourownfood #year2

[The School Gardener @GrowingTeacher]

This sounds like a great project! Looking forward to finding out more... #schoolgarden #schoolallotment

[eSGarden @eschoolgarden]

eSGarden – "School Gardens for Future Citizens", is a collaboration between schools, universities and companies around the #schoolgarden as a wonderful tool for learning subjects, skills and competences and enjoying @EUErasmusPlus https://t.co/iPFZPlYlA3

[The School Gardener @GrowingTeacher]

@SowYummyFood That’s sounds cool - looking forward to seeing the pics

[The School Gardener @GrowingTeacher]

We planted our seed potatoes outside the classroom about three weeks ago - we are looking after them each day, here’s our progress so far... #schoolgarden #schoolallotment #year2

[The School Gardener @GrowingTeacher]

@PaulaWarrener Wow! These look amazing! Great polytunnel too

[The School Gardener @GrowingTeacher]

@TheHambleSchool Hi, I will have some plants that I’d love to donate. How can I send a DM?

[The Hamble School @thehambleschool]

Our Bereavement Group are developing the memorial garden 🪴

Can you help us with any donations of plants? Please DM or email [email protected] and we will be very grateful.

#plants #gardening #community

[The School Gardener @GrowingTeacher]

@ianaddison We chitted them first for a week or so, so they’d start to root before planting them. We need to add more compost as they grow too to encourage more potato production!