Gabriel Sanson Gomez 🌍🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇽

Co-Convenor @scotyounggreens | New Economy Researcher @climateeurope | Polling Data Analysis | He/Him | Views Own| 🦋

[Scottish Greens @scottishgreens]

Pride is a celebration and a protest. Greens will always stand in solidarity with the LGBTQ+ community as we fight for:

🏳️‍🌈A ban on conversion therapy
🏳️‍🌈End the Gender Recognition Reform block
🏳️‍🌈Improve trans healthcare provision
🏳️‍🌈Create a kinder, fairer country for all

[Europe Elects @EuropeElects]

United Kingdom (Scottish parliament election): the Scottish Green Party (SGP-G/EFA) achieved a record high result of 15 seats, almost double the party's previous seat tally.

The party also won its first two constituency seats, unseating two SNP-G/EFA government ministers.

➤ https://t.co/gtoREMhzES

[Gabriel Sanson Gomez 🌍🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇽 @GSansonGomez]

@Daodaoldn @b1d3nat0r @ElectionMapsUK Absolutely. I’d prefer for more MSPs per region than Wales has, as it does raise the effective vote share needed for a seat from ~5% to ~15%.

An open list system would also be great, to allow folks to choose specific candidates from a list, rather than the party-assigned order.

[Gabriel Sanson Gomez 🌍🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇽 @GSansonGomez]

@GarethMacG @TACJ Or just open list PR. Would give a more representative result, whilst giving folk choice

[Gabriel Sanson Gomez 🌍🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇽 @GSansonGomez]

@Daodaoldn @b1d3nat0r @ElectionMapsUK That’s less ‘strategy’ and more tactical pressures from a system which still relies on FPTP. Neither party encourages it.

I wouldn’t equate tactical voting to “gaming the system”. We should have a fully PR system where voters feel able to vote for the party they best align with.

[Gabriel Sanson Gomez 🌍🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇽 @GSansonGomez]

@AFrazzledScot @scottishgreens Annoyingly the cost argument was convincing for many. I hoped we could at least stand on all of Glasgow-Edinburgh seats as a minimum, where we were almost certainly gonna retain all deposits. Hopefully folks like us pushing to stand in more constituencies win out next time.

[Gabriel Sanson Gomez 🌍🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇽 @GSansonGomez]

@Daodaoldn @b1d3nat0r @ElectionMapsUK An SNP majority comes at the detriment of Green MSPs elected, because of the overhang created by the SNP winning more constituencies than the system can correct for via the list seats

[Gabriel Sanson Gomez 🌍🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇽 @GSansonGomez]

@Daodaoldn @b1d3nat0r @ElectionMapsUK It’s literally not in the interest of Greens or the wider Indy movement for the SNP to have a majority, why would we do that?

[Gabriel Sanson Gomez 🌍🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇽 @GSansonGomez]

@Daodaoldn @b1d3nat0r @ElectionMapsUK Literally had nothing to do with the SNP. It was democratically decided by local members, mainly under grounds of cost for deposits. I didn’t agree with the argument, but that’s what local members voted for.

[Gabriel Sanson Gomez 🌍🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇽 @GSansonGomez]

@JamesKelly But this is where I argue that the SNP’s messaging makes no sense. If Labour are what they’re worried about, why lie and say it’s between the SNP and the Tories? Isn’t that even more disingenuous?

[Gabriel Sanson Gomez 🌍🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇽 @GSansonGomez]

@JamesKelly There’s large parts of the constituency Greens didn’t stand in.

In addition, the Green vote share in 2021 was depressed by SNP-Tory tactical voting, hence why our 2016 share was higher.

With no risk of the Tories getting in, Greens have no reason to vote tactically anymore.

[Gabriel Sanson Gomez 🌍🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇽 @GSansonGomez]

@NiallChristie1 Solidarity Niall. Irrespective of party affiliation, I have great respect for your dedication and commitment to the values you believe in.

Wish you all the best for what comes next.

[Gabriel Sanson Gomez 🌍🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇽 @GSansonGomez]

@InvernessTop My broader worry for Indy is that if the SNP scrapes a majority on 30% of the vote, I’m not sure that would shift the needle at Westminster, or carry salience with the public. The SNP’s high 2011 vote share carried salience.

This whole move further risks the SNP’s credibility.

[Gabriel Sanson Gomez 🌍🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇽 @GSansonGomez]

In case any young progressives in Edinburgh Central want to know the actual reality on the ground and in polling:

[Angus Robertson @AngusRobertson]

��️ Progressive and younger voters are worried about the rise of Nigel Farage and Reform UK.

🟡 I defeated the Tories in Edinburgh Central in 2021.

🗳️ To lock them and the far right out, vote SNP and Angus Robertson on May 7th.

[Gabriel Sanson Gomez 🌍🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇽 @GSansonGomez]

@InvernessTop I understand your hesitation. My hope is that we get more regular polling in the lead up to the election, and things are clearer on that front. I suspect Labour would need a significant boost in their polling to win in Central. Let’s see what happens in May!

[Gabriel Sanson Gomez 🌍🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇽 @GSansonGomez]

@InvernessTop Areas with strong Green list vote will have strong const. vote.
This notional list share is higher than the in the old Glasgow Kelvin, where Greens got within 15% of winning from an SNP which is now down 13% in the polling average.
Edinburgh is also the SNP’s weakest region.

[Gabriel Sanson Gomez 🌍🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇽 @GSansonGomez]

@InvernessTop Because the new boundaries include strong Green areas that didn’t have a 2021 constituency candidate, the list comparison is a neater example to make the point. But more granular 2022 locals data, and list shares between constituencies all back up the BBS projection.

[Gabriel Sanson Gomez 🌍🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇽 @GSansonGomez]

@InvernessTop The key reason for the uptick are significant boundary changes which push up the Green baseline.

Comparing list shares in the old vs new boundaries makes this point well. Constituency share would start a little lower due to FPTP pressures, but the pattern would still hold.

[Gabriel Sanson Gomez 🌍🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇽 @GSansonGomez]

@ramacphee5 This BBS article has a more detailed breakdown: https://t.co/l6yzNMw8ap

[Gabriel Sanson Gomez 🌍🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇲🇽 @GSansonGomez]

@ramacphee5 It’s mostly due to significant boundary changes that took out loads of more Tory and LD areas, and replaced them with strongly Green areas.

Even the 2021 result is somewhat deceiving, as the Green vote share dropped from 13.6% in 2016 due to anti-Tory tactical voting.