Even though I’m happy with my performance this year, when looking at the opportunity set, especially in Q4, I can’t help but feel I left a lot on the table. Started the year of great with a 30% return in Q1, and as always straight from the Druckenmiller playbook, when I start the year of like that, I try go for a homerun year instead of trying to grind it out and protect profits rest of year.
This mentality got me in a drawdown as the market/opportunities wasn’t ready for me trying to go for a “big year” into Q2. Even though this is something I already know, I still take this with me as a lesson going forward, its so important to play the market as it is, just like in poker, if you have a hot hand, you go big, if not you simply wait and stay patient.
Even though I made a lot of progress on this during 2024, going into 2025 I will continue to focus on the outlier opportunities and try to maximize them. Another thing which goes hand in hand with this is trying to trade less by just ignoring the average/ok opportunities, as my profits very closely follow the Pareto principle (80% of the profits from 20% of the trades) this makes a lot of sense in terms of trying to improve hit rate.
Bears sound smart bulls get rich
The only time bulls get crushed is when typical local NPC thinks he’s a good investor
Currently retail isn’t even in the market
Not surprised to be honest. No wonder everyone is scared with the narrative mainstream media is pushing (Trump is dangerous, unpredictable, tradewar this, tariff that, recession etc etc). It’s amazing how detached they are from reality, if you’re on X you knew stuff where not nearly as bad as what they made it out to be. Thank you @elonmusk for making it possible to get REAL information!!
@TheShortBear Seems reasonable to make the case that we hit 3 yesterday when they announced potential 100% tariffs on China with a one day deadline.. @TheShortBear
Textbook opportunity today in $MSTR, had basically all the things you want to see in a “parabolic short”: stock up 50-100% in a few days, stock up 3-5 days straight, and big gap up on open. Entered on the break of the opening 1 min range and covered on key 1h moving averages.
Been a while since I gave an update to all of you 90 people following me lol, always feel like I would like to be more active here, but the truth is I just do not find the time. Anyway, past months has been truly incredible in terms of opportunities, in a place with my trading I probably never though I would be in and to be honest feels like we just getting started with Trump as president, crypto bull market etc. Very excited for end of year and will get back with a performance update and some of the years highlights in a later post. As of now hoping we get a pullback in crypto for some good long entries! $BTC $QQQ