Observations from a trip into Chicago, then Champagne & Bloomington.
Observations:
- The theme is dry. Sure, it’s way too early for this to be a factor, and dry early can be a big positive, but the trend will need to change.
- Soybean stands are thin
The beans close on their lows after a key reversal. Looking for confirmation and follow through tomorrow should challenge the spike low of 1140.5 in May very soon #oatt#soybeans#corn
Nov beans are currently 30 cents below where they were a year ago at this time, before the election...
The situation on the farm has been a long time coming with a ton of stupid policy decisions made along the way, it's not just because cHiNa iSnT bUyInG
If Managed Money pushes this much more (especially wheat) they may make us dependent on our enemies for our food with nobody left to farm domestically. Great job #oatt#corn#soybean#wheat
History never repeats itself, but it does rhyme.
1970: Much of the crop was very closely related. The genetics had the T-Cytoplasm. It was all susceptible to blight, which manifested & significantly reduced yield.
2025: Tassel wrap. Southern Rust.
https://t.co/1hMyEort0q
I have been on the tour for 2 days and heard about day 1, my conclusion is the #soybeans could reach 53-54. The #corn will be fortunate to make 183-184. Corn diseases are so bad in some areas where yield will continue to decline. Hard to say how this corn will finish but it will be less than scouts calculated. I have not seen enough to move my number above 180.
In one sentence - corn isn’t as good as people thought and soybeans are better than people expected! #oatt #pftour25
Difficult to make 185-190 like many are promoting given pollination issues and hot nights. Time will tell but my 183 will be working lower as I continue to hear and see issues for 2025 biggest crop ever! Expectations toward the moon always disappoint. Not bullish yet but keeping my eyes open and my ears to the ground! Does the “Invisible Hand” accumulate? Tomorrow will be one more piece of the puzzle! #corn #oatt
@ScottIrwinUI I doubt there are many farmers surprised. From dry finishing weather and plenty of holes from NW Iowa to Indiana and Ohio. NASS and USDA need better NDVI data, more feet in the fields, and less farmer surveys. They skew the farmer survey data higher anyway so whats the point?