guyu

Former Jack Ma PR writer 🎙️ | Financial Times alum 📰 | Miles & points enthusiast ✈️🏨 | Proud Beijing local |

[Terrible Maps @TerribleMaps]

A useful framework

[Wise @trikcode]

You basically need to be unemployed to keep up with all this AI stuff.

[guyu @guyu]

这是用什么工具做的啊？

[Spica @CasseCool]

1945年8月6日のHiroshimaにタイムトラベル
https://t.co/OMQEgDtJ7J

[𝘽𝙡𝙖𝙠𝙚 @Arealmfngl]

If true this would be a huge win for feminism. Women are grossly underrepresented in the dictatorship and authoritarianism fields

[buntyyy @badlyer123]

Hey @grok turn this picture into reality

[BITWU.ETH 🔆 @Bitwux]

人生的容错率很高，三次左转就成了右转！

好棒的一句话！

[Dr. Bo @BoDiplo]

怪不得，原来按照气候区域的相似性来说，我一直生活在美国的日本😅

[Massimo @Rainmaker1973]

Michael Crook, a 75-year-old man born and raised in China to British-Canadian parents, switches effortlessly between English and Mandarin

[Michael Pettis @michaelxpettis]

Very good Rhodium piece on the challenges facing the Chinese economy. The good news, Rhodium notes, is that there is pretty much a consensus among economic policy advisors (although, I would add, not necessarily among policymakers) on the urgent need to rebalance the economy away from investment and towards consumption.

The bad news is that there is no consensus on how the costs of this rebalancing are to be allocated within the economy – nor, I would also add, even an acknowledgement that this is the key issue in rebalancing. With, broadly speaking, three sectors in the economy, the transfers needed to raise consumption must be allocated either within the household sector or from the business or government sectors.

In the first case, the transfers would come from rich and middle class households (e.g. through higher income taxes, property taxes, or cuts in services) and go to migrant workers and the rural poor. But with the middle class already suffering from job uncertainty and the property decline, this might be socially and politically more disruptive than Beijing would want to consider. What is more, the main reason for low consumption in China is not income inequality within households but rather the low overall household share of income, so even if Beijing were willing to implement such policies, they wouldn't solve the deeper underlying problem.

Another way to raise the consumption share involves transfers from businesses to households (e.g. raise interest rates, revalue the currency, reduce subsidies to businesses, close down the weakest players in sectors with low profitability and excess capacity, cut spending on logistical infrastructure). The problem here is that after years of operating on massive direct and indirect subsidies, many Chinese manufacturers are incredibly competitive but not terrible efficient (in the sense of being able to create more economic value than they absorb directly and indirectly through subsidies and transfers).

Without these transfers, in other words, an awful lot of businesses would be forced either to cut capacity sharply or to close. If this were to happen quickly, it would be very disruptive for employment and the overall economy, but if this were to happen over at least a decade or more of careful restructuring, it would require a lot more foreign forbearance on trade and a lot more debt.

The third way to raise the consumption share of GDP is to allocate the costs to the central or local governments. The right way to do this, as Rhodium notes, might involve directly or indirectly transferring ownership of businesses and assets from local governments to households.

The wrong way to do this would be to increase China's debt burden even further. Unfortunately even though China has the second highest debt burden in the world (after Japan's) and the fastest-growing debt burden in history, increasing debt further would be politically easier in the short term than transferring government assets to households. The key point here is that local governments should not liquidate assets to fund additional spending, as they seem to be doing now, but rather either to pay down debt or to fund transfers to households. But this almost certainly involves a significant change in the distribution of income within China and, with it, a potentially disruptive redistribution of power.

So if it is so hard to rebalance, why not ignore rebalancing and just double down on the existing model? The problem here is that while certain aspects of the Chinese economy may seem in good shape, in fact the overall economy is struggling, and it is only massive increases in debt every year that allow Beijing to continue to achieve its growth targets. But as happened to every other country that followed this model, debt is always what causes the ultimate unraveling, and it is much better for China to begin the difficult adjustment while it still has fiscal space than to be forced into adjustment when it no longer has fiscal space.

[Natural Philosophy @Naturalphilosy]

“A tiger wearing a bell will starve.”

— Mongolian Proverb

[The Resonance @Partisan_12]

JOHN MEARSHEIMER: “The United States has lost this war. It can't figure out how to solve this war. And it's going to have enormously negative consequences for all of you. You should understand that. We are in deep trouble in Iran..”

[guyu @guyu]

@WriterJMS @mattduss what is the evidence?

[Reads with Ravi @readswithravi]

“To be happy you must eliminate two things: The fear of a bad future and the memory of a bad past.”

— Seneca

[sy @seezyou]

The plan is to MOVE. Move out. Move on. Move forward. Move up. Move smarter.

[百年 AI×出海 @yidabuilds]

https://t.co/Geffvz2kVK

[Uncle Ruckus @Emarged]

“Until death, all defeat is psychological."

[Andreas Backhaus @AndreasShrugged]

There's no Nobel Prize in Economics.

[vivienna.btc @viviennaBTC]

终于把磨了好久的四大宏观(美债、美元、黄金、通胀)看板上线啦！
最近彻底沉迷 AI Coding，每天用 Claude 写代码写到半夜，一版一版迭代调试，总算把这套自己梦寐以求的实时看板做出来了～

为什么要做这些？

宏观因子建模本质上是把高维、噪声大、强相关的时间序列数据，转化为低维、可解释、可预测的信号，用于资产配置、择时和风险管理。

我把常见的宏观因子分成几大类：

• 利率/货币政策类：真实利率、期限利差、forward curve、政策预期路径

• 通胀类：核心通胀、预期通胀（breakeven）、薪资-通胀螺旋、财政驱动

• 增长/风险偏好类：增长 surprise、信用利差、VIX、美元carry

• 商品/避险类：黄金真实收益率敏感度、地缘风险溢价

• 流动性/供给类：美债净供给、央行资产负债表、美元流动性指数

我选择了黄金、美元、美债、通胀因子这四个类别。

对资产管理最实际的帮助：

• 快速抓住宏观拐点
• 看清多因子驱动逻辑
• 辅助大类资产配置和风险对冲
• 自己改权重、自己看结果，超级爽

四大看板亮点：

美债看板
实时收益率曲线 + 智能因子计分卡（-2到+2自动打分，帮你判断久期和曲线立场）+ 政策路径 + 供给资金流

https://t.co/bfvzxm3BNk

美元看板
DXY多因子估值模型（利率差+风险溢价+便利收益+波动预警）+ 综合评分 + 持仓分析，一眼看美元强弱

https://t.co/DHdOCDhh0T

黄金看板
多因子信号强度 + SHAP归因瀑布图 + 体制切换预测，搞懂黄金到底在涨啥

https://t.co/4wtOe2V5Je

通胀因子看板
五维通胀压力评分 + 四资产信号塔 + 体制诊断，提前闻到通胀味儿

https://t.co/e3oAYbyADv

重要提醒：这些看板仅供教育和研究使用，绝不构成任何投资建议。市场有风险，决策还得靠自己！

全部免费、数据实时更新，还支持自定义因子权重。感兴趣的同学可以一起开放交流量化建模方法与实际落地流程。
欢迎大家来玩、来反馈、来一起交流～ 我继续用 Claude 肝新模块！

#宏观交易 #黄金 #美债 #美元 #通胀 #AI_Coding #Claude （vivienna.btc × Claude 沉迷副产物）

[guyu @guyu]

笑死我了

[End Wokeness @EndWokeness]

"Why does an actor's race matter?!"

Ok… now imagine it was this:

[Punk（2898 🙌💎） @punk2898]

为什么李彦宏被称为互联网袁绍？