gweifu

Made a Twitter for NFTs, now full time macro larper and trader. Memes, shitposts, occasional insights.

[gweifu @gweifu]

Since we’re all doing it, my general thoughts and themes for the market in 2023:

[TheLastBearStanding @LastBearStandng]

The big question: Can "efficiency" fix the U.S. budget?

https://t.co/YMmY55RZJJ

[KKGB @INArteCarloDoss]

Fucking legend

[Larry Cheng @larryvc]

One practice I highly recommend as an investor is deliberately and consistently spending some (not all) of your time working on contrarian ideas. Absent that, then by definition, you are spending all of your time working on conventional ideas which is not a recipe for success.

If you’re spending all of your time pursuing conventional ideas, looking at the same sectors, same geographies, same business models, same companies, running the same analysis, doing the same diligence, focusing on the same metrics, exactly the same as every other investor - why would you expect a differentiated result? You’ve commoditized yourself.

How do you know you’re working on a contrarian idea? When the idea has business merit in your mind but other seasoned investors say that it is “crazy”, “a waste of time”, “nuts”, etc. It’s not the presence of social validation that you’re looking for, it’s the absence of social validation that becomes the positive indicator that you may be into something.

[Paulo Macro @PauloMacro]

Look here’s the problem with the recession crew owning long-dated USTs and duration (these include several i know and respect). 🧵

You can’t have it both ways. US is running 6-8% deficits *right now* into a slowdown. This blows out to over 10% in recession even with…
1/17

[TheLastBearStanding @LastBearStandng]

ICYMI, this post from last September is one of the best I've written, and is incredibly relevant to today's predicament.

It also places much of the blame on central bank policy. 🧵

https://t.co/gtOHqLeIdm

[Santiago Capital @SantiagoAuFund]

A thread...

I started in this business almost 25 (!) years ago.
In that time, I have transitioned through the .com boom/bust, Sept 11, the RE boom/subsequent GFC, the Euro sovereign crisis, the '18 volmageddon, the '19 repo crisis, the Covid crisis & the '22 Fed hiking cycle.
1/

[KKGB @INArteCarloDoss]

The story of inflation so far has been written with CB lies. It’s transitory, it’s supply-side driven, it’s China, it’s Putin, it’s not a wage-price spiral, it’s peaking, it’s soon about to converge down to target, it’s margin driven…can’t the layman see that he’s the sucker?

[gweifu @gweifu]

@Pentosh1 Can confirm. Just checked their website and it’s their top listed strategy

[gweifu @gweifu]

Interesting 1hr of $SYN price action following @Pentosh1 tweet. Seems like the bots/algos were happy with a 15% scalp

[gweifu @gweifu]

$BBBY ✅

[gweifu @gweifu]

Meme stocks will have a resurgence with significant rally in 1H23, with some reaching 100%+ from lows before going even lower in 2H23
(Ideas: $GME, $BBBY, $AMC, new entrants?)

[KKGB @INArteCarloDoss]

No one should be enslaved to work to 64, nor anyone should be compelled to stop working at 64. A lot of ppl pursue passion careers and are fit and willing to work up to 80. Many have terribly dehumanizing jobs and want to stop at 55. Conflict comes from these arbitrary norms
2/2

[KKGB @INArteCarloDoss]

The stock of consumers savings is still way above pre-COVID and homeowners equity is at all time highs. With unemployment at all time lows and disinflationary impetus supporting real disposable incomes, market being offside of Fed on 23 cuts is setting up for a bloodbath.
2/2

[gweifu @gweifu]

@WifeyAlpha Do you follow trends/momentum by S&P sector (e.g., XLP, XLY, etc.)? Not asking you to prepare the cohibas, just curious if and why/why not. Thanks for sharing!

[gweifu @gweifu]

@EPBResearch Big deal given service-producing is 70% of NFP and ~85% of private sector employment!

[gweifu @gweifu]

Conclusion: Lots of opportunities ahead for 2023. I’m mainly looking for things to go lower but expect big swings and rotational plays with momentum both ways. I’ll remain heavy cash and be very targeted with longs and shorts. Good luck!

[gweifu @gweifu]

Since we’re all doing it, my general thoughts and themes for the market in 2023:

[gweifu @gweifu]

Cash (and T-Bills) will be one of the best performing risk-adjusted assets for the year
(Ideas: cash is a position too!)