The conventional thinking is wrong: Single-family rentals do NOT boom when home sales bust.
Home sales are at 16-year lows, and yet SFR rent growth fell to a 6-year low due to slower leasing activity plus increased supply.
Yes, the massive discount to rent versus buy keeps many people renting longer. But it does NOT create more renters.
Record rent growth hit in 2021 when home sales were booming. Why? A rising tide boosts all ships. Strong home sales boost the entire economy, which boosts household formation and demand for all types of housing.
When homes are selling, more people leave to buy. But those rental homes often get backfilled quicker and at higher rents.
So if you're in the rental housing business, you should be cheering for a stronger for sale housing market.
Invitation Homes (large single-family rental REIT) had its earnings call last week. Lots of color on the SFR market. Takeaways:
1) Rents for new leases fell 2.2% in Q4. That appears to be INVH's first rent cut in 10 years, according to data compiled by @JBREC.
@jayparsons@WSJ In my micro view of SFH world in Plano TX, I find many small mom & pop investors are somewhat unsophisticated re returns/cap rates that the big investors are. This causes over supply for the short (< 30days) & mid-term space (> 30 days) and lower prices…
This was a good piece in the @WSJ that gets into why the bigger single-family rental investors aren't buying houses in today's market (and haven't been -- at any scale -- in years, actually).
A few things this article tells us about SFR investors that most ppl don't know:
The single-family rental market is one of the most fragmented industries in the United States. Even the biggest players are rounding errors in terms of market share.
@AmericanAir Big shout out to Andrew today (Nov 20) for help and service at yyz admirals club. Traveling with my 91 yr old mom to DFW and such a great experience for her. Thank you!!!
Multifamily or single-family rental? Which is better
Here's a look at SFR rents from CoreLogic, and if this chart wasn't labeled "Single-Family Rent Index," you'd have no idea this was SFR and not apartments. The trends -- historical and current -- are that similar.
If you missed my interview with Tommy Mello yesterday, here is the video. He dropped so many great tips about how to run and market a home service business and how he got his garage door company to $200 million. https://t.co/QU6r4dqPAv
We've been making the point since late last year that the balance of power in the rental housing market has rapidly shifted to renters, and The Wall Street Journal said as much this week with the headline: "Renters Are About to Get the Upper Hand."
Why?
Those who claim America is becoming a "renter nation" may be surprised to see the U.S. homeownership rate hit a 12-year high of 66% in Q1'23.
Contrary to narratives, homeownership has been on steady climb for the last 7 years.
For other travels continue to plan on plane deplaning delays at @TorontoPearson ea
This is second trip to YYZ in a month.
Not getting any better except now it seems they will let connecting passengers off
#pearsoncustoms#PearsonT3
Arrived at 440pm AA1111 today from DFw to YYZ T3. @TorontoPearson
Gate agent announce @CanBorderGTA had instituted a customs metering systems, so no one let off plane.
However those with wheelchair or connecting flight (the announced name) could get off.
#torontopearsont3