gyges01

Interests - chemistry, law, blockchain

[gyges01 @gyges01]

@PhelimMcAleer ... yeah but in the current dialectic the liberals are the clever ones, they'd never fall for anything like that ...

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@RobertAllenPoet ... this is really a thread about fame and not poetry ... if a poem becomes famous we're supposed to like it whilst if it isn't - as someone said earlier - meh ... interesting how fame overshadows critical analysis and personal taste ...

[gyges01 @gyges01]

@MarkAmesExiled I'm wondering if this is the shot that stopped the Ukraine war ...

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@thephilippics er ... Thatcher anyone?

[Liam Guilar @liamguilar]

First attempts at translating medieval Welsh prose to a modern verse sequence. https://t.co/f1N8KYTwkc

[iang @iang_fc]

@gyges01 The tech on Stackoverflow is much more objective - the solutions posted are objectively testable by people with expertise and without.

OTOH political speech on @X is not objectively testable by the public, and narrowly only testable parties that win election (and that's weak).

[gyges01 @gyges01]

@fakebot696969 @Annibal97783312 "mad scientists" a lot of scientists have been described by a friend as savant idiots ... very clever chaps who are incredibly stupid ... they're not 'mad' but blinkered and myopic ... I work with some of these people daily ...

[gyges01 @gyges01]

@iang_fc how come Stackoverflow gets it right? Anything we can learn from them? It's such a valuable resource, why is it so difficult to replicate elsewhere?

[gyges01 @gyges01]

@MerrynSW there's a group in Denmark working on it ... it's an engineering rather than a scientific problem (as well as a political one) ... if implemented it could enable all of net zero policies ... but it doesn't make nuclear weapons, and it provides essentially free power

[gyges01 @gyges01]

@brianeno @gary_hustwit @UMRecordings when you say 'general release in the UK' ... mmmm, it's not _that_ general is it?

[gyges01 @gyges01]

@MerrynSW we need to build thorium reactors ... once Capex is paid back this will provide free energy ...

[gyges01 @gyges01]

@rlmcelreath ... will endeavour to get all scientists in my company to attend ... will speak to senior management to get times to fit ...

[Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rlmcelreath]

Details and registration: https://t.co/7XxeKsVoCH

[Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rlmcelreath]

Stats is broken. Causal inference is broken. Together they are less broken. I will teach a 3h online course in September, aimed at ppl who have tried to understand connections btw causal inference & statistical inference but were discouraged by notation & puffery. @StatHorizons

[gyges01 @gyges01]

@SimoninSuffolk Go along the Military Road to Heaven Field ...

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@DavidBCollum doesn't this portrayal of fascism disguise the current fascism that is occurring in both the west?

[gyges01 @gyges01]

@GuardianBooks #poetry "emerges from the shadows"? Seriously? Where the f*ck have you lot been?

[gyges01 @gyges01]

@iang_fc @TheEconomist ps ... it wasn't something that I was advocating, btw ... instead I was interested in your analysis ...

[gyges01 @gyges01]

@iang_fc @TheEconomist .... there's a massive pool of immigrants that _could_ be used to shore up the army ... just assume all immigrants are from the Ukraine and return them ... but how credible is the _could_ part? Would there be any point using these conscripts?

[iang @iang_fc]

Prediction: Ukraine front collapses in October.

It's probable that the Biden/NATO/Zelensky regime will fight without end, so don't look to them for timings. It's possible a coup takes place, but I see it as unlikely.

But there is another mechanism - the front. On the frontline, new and old soldiers fight. They fight for a motive, which is loosely throwing the enemy out of their homeland. This is generally a good motivator.

But that motivator is now facing a pincer movement - firstly from the Trump deadline, 5th November or slightly after, Kiev heads will be banged and a ceasefire of some form ordered.

Second pincer is when their government becomes dysfunctional. No money as warned in below thread, no rationality, no truth, no pay, no nothing. (It's already the case that the majority of the civilian population in Ukraine want the war over now, in Russia's favour, and the soldiers will know that.)

These two notions will spread slowly through the front, and at some point will tip from grumbling to rebellion. The tip will happen in a day, no longer than a week. Suddenly all the soldiers will realise their options are:

1. Fight and die for another day, but achieve zero results, and know the end is close.
2. Stop.

So they'll stop, as that saves their lives. Either they'll just walk home, or, if the "loyal" rearguard blocks them or shoots them, they'll sneak over to Russian lines and surrender. First, individually. Then by platoon. Then by battalion and then the front.

We can't reliably predict the precise timings bc we can't observe the general morale of the troops. My sense is between a few more months of bandaid patching, and the hard deadline of November. So latest October.

But it'll happen suddenly, and at that point the front will collapse. Russian troops will drive forward as far as supply and barriers let them, consolidate more ground, then halt and watch the Ukrainian soldiers walk home, disarmed. And wait for negotiations.