Mission S.
Authentic. Consistent. Timeless.
A glimpse into the future - shaped by our heritage. Mid-engine architecture. A focus on the driver and the driving experience.
Call it a love letter.
One thing to keep in mind.
The overall ridesharing market in the US is ~4.5B rides per year. If we assume an average of 10 miles/ride, that is 45B miles. Even if Tesla converts every single mile, 100% market share, at $2/mile, that is revenue of $90B. Nothing to sneeze at, sure, but this doesn't get the valuation to 10x from where they sit now. A lot of this is already priced into the high P/E.
The only way this grows beyond $90B is by displacing other forms of transportation. This would require a cost/benefit that is very favorable for the consumer, and may also run into regulatory concerns. Public transportation very cheap, and heavily publicly subsidized. How realistic is this?
I think tesla's best bet is still to reach some sort of hybrid model where they can compete in ridesharing, but also keep selling cars for individual car ownership, and license their FSD to other manufacturers. If FSD delivers, the demand for their cars will increase as a result. And then we have peripheral opportunities in insurance, advertising etc. There are 100 different ways this can go. I think fully displacing personal vehicle ownership and public transit is the least likely thing to happen.
AV market share globally in 10 years:
$TSLA 40% 🥇
$uber's network of 20 partners 35% 🥈
Waymo: 15% 🥉
Long tail (outside of the uber network): 10%
Uber and Tesla are generational buys at under $100 and under $400, respectively IMO