Niv Goren

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[Niv Goren @hackertrader]

https://t.co/4xBOeW6mIV now have charts and theme detection became much stronger

[Niv Goren @hackertrader]

@ProfitAlgos I want to hear more about pareto but before give me recipe for ratatouille

[Niv Goren @hackertrader]

1/ I backtested 1,657 breakouts from 2008 to 2026.

Only 24% made money.

The best 50 made 94% of all the profit.

So I went through all 50, one by one 🧵

[Niv Goren @hackertrader]

@ProfitAlgos sounds like the biggest overfit the world has ever seen

[Niv Goren @hackertrader]

@JB__trades theres a way to outsamrt those who outsmart

[Niv Goren @hackertrader]

$RSP / $SPY back to levels where buying breakouts works

[Niv Goren @hackertrader]

@sha6786868 They are in the backtest just not in the post

[Niv Goren @hackertrader]

7/ Every trade has a full year of chart before entry, every execution, and what actually happened.

All 50 here:
https://t.co/y1TAPwtcyl

[Niv Goren @hackertrader]

6/ My market filters skipped 22 of the 50.

They still make the system better overall: fewer losers, smaller drawdowns.

But it's not free, and I show every one they missed.

[Niv Goren @hackertrader]

@paraholik Duplicate mistake

[Niv Goren @hackertrader]

Many breakouts traders talk about breadth - when the index is up but most stocks aren't breakouts fail.

So I backtested it with actual numbers. This is what I found:

• RSP/SPY down in 20 days → breakouts lost money

• when 80% or more of S&P500 stocks above 50sma -breakouts don't work.

• when 80% or more of S&P500 stocks above 50 sma - breakouts don't work.

https://t.co/EtTLgNWkzO

[Niv Goren @hackertrader]

@scurzo88 That u gave me one instance and I checked all breakouts since 2008

[Niv Goren @hackertrader]

@JB__trades Im saying they don't work under the above conditions. you can read how they defined etc here:

https://t.co/2fLeuLQaLF

https://t.co/au64tfJcUi

https://t.co/42DGGkjPV0

[Niv Goren @hackertrader]

by overfitting and loosing their account

[Alex Finn @AlexFinn]

A lot of people don’t realize they’re 5 hours of vibe coding with Opus 5.5 away from changing their entire financial lives

[Niv Goren @hackertrader]

@SuperAlgoKit Only problem is that Drunkenmiller himself might have tuned in that period

[Niv Goren @hackertrader]

@SuperAlgoKit Held oos yes

[Niv Goren @hackertrader]

@hackertrader Fair point, thanks for the link. Does the macro score hold up out of sample, or only on the period it was tuned on?

[Niv Goren @hackertrader]

Stanley Druckenmiller is famous for saying that earnings move individual stocks, but liquidity moves the market.

I listened to many of his public speeches and came out with a macro score that represents his views.

His macro score took my b/o strategy backtest from 22% to 33% CAGR.

But only on top of individual stock fundementals.

What macro parameters have an edge?

1. Financial conditions - 3-month change in the dollar, the 10-year yield, oil, credit spreads (HYG vs IEF) and the S&P. Each one moving the wrong way costs points.

2. Excess liquidity - M2 money supply growth minus industrial production growth. Money growing faster than the economy spills into assets.

3. The Fed - A rate cut in the last 6 months scores 3. A recent hike scores 0. QE adds, QT subtracts.

4. Companies and sector cycle - Fixed at neutral. Reading earnings calls point-in-time wasn't possible, so they never move the score.

Full research with backtest results:
https://t.co/0rSi6Jnlyw

[Niv Goren @hackertrader]

@SuperAlgoKit Please find my original research in https://t.co/XkgQra0iDG you will be surprised to find that I have a bit of experience in that field