Publius Aelius

[Publius Aelius @hadrian37]

I am a WW1 aficionado and — somewhat paradoxically — a lifelong Americanophile. I say that because the USA I admire ceased to exist around '94–'95, when the GATT Uruguay Round transformed it into something I no longer recognize. But that is a topic for another day. 🧵1/x

[Brett Erickson @BrettErickson28]

Donald Trump needs to find a solution to end the Iran War, but now, he's facing an entirely new situation:

He's going to lose Fox News.

When this war ends, inevitably, Democrats will flock to CNN and MSNOW to rip Trump to shreds. Of course they will, they would have done that regardless of how successful the war was.

Independents will take that the airwaves to criticize why we launched this war to begin with. Was this to the benefit of the United States? What did we truly accomplish that couldn't have been achieved without war?

That's fine. President Trump has never much cared about the opinions of Democrats and Independents. As long as he has his MAGA base, he's fine.

And so far, this has mostly held true. "News" networks like Fox News and Newsmax have repeatedly brought on guests that continue to push the false narrative that the United States is winning. Everything is going great, never better! The viewership numbers of Fox News in particular, show the tale of the tape.

Amongst cable news segments, Fox News holds... 12 out of the 12 most watched segments, and 14 of the top 15.

CRAZY! But it's true. As long as President Trump can keep his Fox News base... an overwhelming amount of American's will be hearing from the Ministry of Propaganda, and eat up every word. And this has been the playbook of Trump throughout his first and second term, and why he has repeatedly turned to Fox News to be a mouthpiece for the Administration's propaganda.

But now, he faces an existential crisis to his reputation and perception.

Two key groups, the Israeli Lobby and the Iran Hawks, are set to flock to Fox and claw Trump to shreds.

We saw this just two weeks ago when initial terms for a potential Memorandum of Understanding were even RUMORED. Your Lindsey Graham's, Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Mark Levin's, Marc Thiessen's, Hudson Institute's... they IMMEDIATELY began to turn on Donald Trump.

Fox News? FILLED with hatred and animosity towards Trump. And many people, myself included, thought that this played a key role in the negotiations between the United States and Iran falling apart in the past few days.

For the Iran Hawks and Israeli Lobby, this is everything to them. Their entire lives... entire careers... everything they stand for was built on convincing a President to be stupid enough to launch this war of choice, and now? They have Trump in a headlock.

Any reasonable person would understand that, in order to reach a Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran, concessions will need to be made from the US side. Obviously. Iran has been strangling the global economy, the Strait of Hormuz has been closed for more than three months now, and Washington is losing the Battle of the Blockades. OF COURSE concessions will need to be made to Iran in order to end this conflict. This is common sense from the President who campaigned on his common sense.

But he can't.

In order for Iran to be FAIRLY compensated for temporarily reopening the Strait of Hormuz under an MOU, frozen assets will need to be released. Whether that is $6B, $12B, or $24B... obviously, Iran will need to be compensated in order to logically release some of their significant leverage.

In order for a final peace deal to be negotiated, OBVIOUSLY Iran will need to receive significant sanctions relief. They received secondary sanctions relief under the JCPOA, and now they are in a far better position than they were when they were negotiating for that.

But Trump can't afford to make a concession to Iran. He can't afford to give them a DIME after spending the past decade publicly humiliating Obama for doing so. Any concession, no matter how small, will be perceived as a complete and total failure by the Iran Hawks and Israeli Lobby.

As long as the current Iranian Regime is still in power? These groups will view the War as a complete and total failure...

And they WILL sprint to Fox News, to Newsmax, to Breitbart if anyone even listens to them anymore, to SCREAM about how much of a failure Donald J. Trump is.

CNN and MSNOW? Obviously every Democrat will be shouting from the rooftops that Trump's legacy as a President is over.

NewsNation? The only center-leaning news outlet of any appreciable scale? They'll be hearing much of the same.

But for the first time in Trump's Presidency, he'll be getting lambasted on his pride and joy, Fox News.

In order for the War in Iran to end. In order for the global economy to even have a hope of surviving this without a major economic recession. Donald Trump needs to accept that his legacy as a President is over. That his "allies" in the Israeli Lobby and Iran Hawks are set to tear him apart on Fox News.

But this is inevitable.

And Donald Trump needs to accept this reality. Fast.

[Don Johnson @DonMiami3]

Recall who was at the swearing in(his owners), these idiots don't innovate for shit... they create addictive products and get teens hooked who then never leave - societal damage will take years or decades to reverse - now they're all in on AI thinking it will change the world and they can control the entire human lifecycle with predictive analytics and models, none of this will ever make $

[Publius Aelius @hadrian37]

@financialjuice Trump is not only crooked, but he's also cruel. Giving false hope to the world is brutally cruel.

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: Iran says negotiations have now fallen apart completely, seizing all messaging channels with the US following new US strikes on commercial vessels in southern Iran and the ongoing Israeli military's invasion of southern Lebanon, per Fars.

Iran also says talks were already fully deadlocked over the US refusing to release $24 billion in frozen funds without nuclear concessions in return. Iran is also rejecting Al Arabiya's claim today that Iran agreed to transfer part of its enriched uranium to a third country, calling it "incorrect" with nuclear discussions being "fundamentally not on the current negotiation agenda."

[Tuomas Malinen @mtmalinen]

Stop using "AI" for anything other than searches. Not for advice. Not for a forecast.

And if you're a CEO, for the love of God, DO NOT REPLACE your human workers with this scam.

[Gary Marcus @GaryMarcus]

⚠️ Keep your eye on the ball, and don’t panic over Anthropic’s new blog. Here’s why:

Anthropic is trying to strike terror into everyone’s hearts – “full recursive self-improvement also might increase the risks of humans losing control over AI systems” – but all they really showed is just faster coding, entirely under human control.

[Jonatan Pallesen @jonatanpallesen]

It is really extreme how harmful Muslim / African mass immigration to Europe is.

If it was just the far higher violent crime and rape rates, that would already be enough that we should stop it.

But it’s also that they are exceedingly costly for the taxpayers.

And that they commit Islamic terrorist attacks.

And that they support Sharia law being introduced in our countries.

And that they riot.

[Adaubam Pires @adaubam]

Que partida memorável. O lindo gol de Sócrates, Hegel e Kant correndo para refutar, Confúcio impassível na arbitragem, o júbilo final dos clássicos e pré-socráticos.

[Josh Young @JoshYoung]

This is how Iran turns a 13 million barrel per day oil supply disruption into a 14+ million barrel per day supply disruption

[David Sacks @DavidSacks]

Signs you might be trying to get your frontier AI lab nationalized:

You compare it to nukes… threaten half of white-collar jobs… warn recursive self-improvement could end humanity… then race ahead anyway.

In other words, you want the government to save us from… you.

[𝐏𝐚𝐮𝐥𝐨𝐬 (Golden Age Arc) @myth_pilot]

Every time I see a wigger I think of the orcs in LOTR. “They were elves once.” All of these people had grandparents who wore suits and ties, worked in offices or factories, went to church, believed in looking you in the eye when shaking hands. A fallen people now. Tragic.

[Tuomas Malinen @mtmalinen]

I was informed by an Iranian source the other day that the aim of the IRGC may be to resume the war at par with the World Cup commencing in the U.S.

[Publius Aelius @hadrian37]

@FirstSquawk Hopefully, Iranian leadership will respond. @grok how did American commander at Bastogne respond to German surrender ultimatum during Battle of the Bulge?

[Publius Aelius @hadrian37]

@WorldCupMedia 1) Croatia
2) Argentina

[Publius Aelius @hadrian37]

@RazorOil He is sick, no doubt. But one should be fair. Ayatollah will meet him.... to accept unconditional surrender.

[Publius Aelius @hadrian37]

@EricLDaugh New forever war then.
https://t.co/suB7feij6b

[Publius Aelius @hadrian37]

@elonmusk @RandPaul Excerpt from Battle of the bulge, 1965 film by Ken Annakin

[Publius Aelius @hadrian37]

@johnnyjmils This pretty much corresponds to how I feel, but I'd like to add one more thing. Even though political elite in the West is delusional and fanatical, Russia still has friends who admire its culture and history.

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

BREAKING: The US State Department has just issued a security alert for all Middle East countries warning of "potential for hostilities" and instructing US citizens to locate the nearest shelter immediately, after the US has given Iran a new end-of-week deadline of "a deal or a military strike," per Channel 12.

Multiple US air force assets are currently airborne in the region with six C-17 Globemaster aircraft leaving the Middle East toward Europe.

The IRGC says its forces have been placed on full combat alert with units now instructed to "stand ready for immediate execution of orders."

[Mark @Mark4XX]

IRAN ENTERS LEBANON WAR: TRUMP'S CEASEFIRE COLLAPSES IN HOURS

Donald Trump announced that a ceasefire in Lebanon would hold and open the door to serious negotiations with Iran. That announcement has already collapsed. Iran now confirms it will come to Lebanon's defense and strike Israel directly if the attacks continue. The battlefield is moving far faster than any diplomatic timeline from Washington.

THE CEASEFIRE THAT NEVER HELD
➡️ Hezbollah rejected the US-backed ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel without hesitation.
➡️ The group made clear that any acceptable deal must begin with a full Israeli withdrawal from all Lebanese territory.
➡️ Return of displaced people and release of Lebanese prisoners were listed as non-negotiable conditions.
➡️ Hezbollah was never even part of the talks that produced this supposed agreement.

THE IRAN INTERVENTION CONFIRMED
➡️ Iran sent clear diplomatic messages to the United States demanding an immediate end to attacks on Lebanon.
➡️ Iranian officials stated they would have taken action already if the strikes had continued.
➡️ Iran expects at least 50 percent of its frozen assets to be released right after any agreement is signed.
➡️ While Washington talks of progress, Iran is openly preparing to enter the fight on Lebanon's side.

THE QUDS FORCE DEMAND
➡️ The Iranian Quds Force commander declared that Israel must withdraw to positions held before the 40-day war began.
➡️ "The basic demand of the resistance is the withdrawal of the occupation regime to the position before the start of the 40-day war."
➡️ He added that Lebanese fighters would soon reap the fruits of their resistance.

THE BATTLEFIELD REALITY
➡️ Israeli airstrikes continued today in southern Lebanon near Nabatieh.
➡️ Hezbollah struck back with drone attacks on Israeli soldiers and vehicles in the southern town of Al-Qantara.
➡️ Reports also confirm an attack on the vehicle of the Israeli Northern Command chief.
➡️ The ceasefire is broken and the fighting is expanding in real time.

THE TRUMP DIPLOMACY GAP
➡️ President Trump claims negotiations to end the war with Iran are underway and he hopes for an agreement this weekend.
➡️ He stated the ceasefire with Iran will be maintained and US military action would only follow if Iranian forces kill American soldiers.
➡️ He is expected to present a new version of a possible peace deal tonight.
➡️ These words come as Iran prepares to widen the conflict and the Lebanon front reignites.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Trump keeps selling the idea that words and weekend deals can contain the war. The reality shows Iran stepping into Lebanon, Hezbollah striking back hard, and the ceasefire lying in ruins. Every hour the gap between the negotiating table in Washington and the battlefield in Beirut and Tehran grows wider and more dangerous.

This is the sound of a diplomatic house of cards collapsing in real time.
#IranEntersLebanon #CeasefireCollapse #TrumpIranTalks #HezbollahRejection #QudsWarning #LebanonWar #EscalationNow

[Mark @Mark4XX]

Gavin is exactly right. Iran refuses to let Trump escape with any kind of win. Under no circumstances will they allow even the appearance of victory. They want complete and total defeat for the man who bragged about wiping out the Supreme Leader’s entire family.
Few people understand that.