arif

shitty first drafts

[arif @haleli_resi]

April’s print is an unwelcome handoff for Kevin Warsh. 2yr yield pushed up to 4.0%, the highest in months & the Iran war has kept the curve anchored near current levels. With Kevin Warsh taking the chair into a hot print, the next move looks more likely to be a hike than a cut5/5

[arif @haleli_resi]

April headline CPI came in at 3.8%, the highest reading in three years and clear of the Fed's 3% upper band, extending a trend that began before the Iran war. (1/5)

[arif @haleli_resi]

Inflation only bites when it outpaces wages – that’s when households watch their savings erode. Through Trump 1.0, headline CPI stayed below wage growth throughout. April headline CPI of 3.8% is only 10bp gap. 4/5

[Mohamad Safa @mhdksafa]

I don't think people understand the gravity of the situation as the UN is preparing for possible nuclear weapon use in Iran.

This is a picture of Tehran. For you uneducated, untraveled, never-served, warhawks licking your chops at the thought of bombing it. It's not some low population desert. There are families, children, family pets. Regular working class people with dreams. You're sick to want war.

Tehran is a city of nearly 10,000,000 people. Imagine nuking Washington, Berlin, Paris, London, or beyond, bombed with nuclear weapons.

I gave up my diplomatic career to leak this information. I suspended my duties so as not to be part of or a witness to this crime against humanity, in an attempt to prevent a nuclear winter before it is too late.

Yesterday, nearly ten million people protested “No Kings” in the United States. The possibility of the use of nuclear weapons must be taken very seriously. It's dangerous. Act now. Spread this message worldwide. Take the streets. Protest for our humanity and future. Only the people can stop it. History will remember us.

[Tucker Carlson @TuckerCarlson]

Could this be a religious war designed to rebuild the Third Temple on the ashes of Al Aqsa? Hope not.

[The Sacred Scroll @SacredScroll]

Bragging about a quiet death after you massacre 87 sailors on a 1,500-ton ship is pure, unadulterated cowardice.

What exactly was the IRIS Dena going to do to your entire armada from thousands of miles away? Nothing. It wasn’t in a combat zone, it wasn't in CENTCOM’s AoR, and it sure as hell wasn't a threat. This wasn’t tactical brilliance it was a cold-blooded hit job in international waters.
You don’t get to lecture the world on maritime law while you’re committing war crimes just to get a 4K infrared clip for a press release. Having the biggest navy on earth doesn’t make you a superpower; it just makes you a high-tech pirate.
Stop calling it defense. It’s murder and a blatant middle finger to every international law you pretend to uphold. The rules-based order is a blood-soaked joke and the world sees it.

#USNavy #IranIsraelWar

[Masoud Pezeshkian @drpezeshkian]

Spain's responsible conduct in opposing the Zionist-American coalition's flagrant human rights violations and military aggression against countries, including Iran, shows that ethics and awakened consciences still exist in the West.
I commend Spanish officials for their stances.

[عبداللہ @Blahhhhhh34]

‘it is unacceptable for some to 'use the smoke of war to hide their failures' and 'fill the pockets of a few'

PEDRO SÁNCHEZ

[Ans @PakForeverIA]

اسپین کے پاس تیل کے ذخائر یا نیوکلیئر بم جیسے وسائل نہیں ہیں لیکن اس کا یہ مطلب نہیں کہ ہم سامراجی اسرائیل کے خلاف نہیں لڑیں گے اور انہیں روکنے کی کوشش نہیں کریں گے، کچھ جنگیں حق کا ساتھ دینے کے لیے لڑی جاتی ہیں

وزیر اعظم سپین پیڈرو سانچیز

[arif @haleli_resi]

Limited reaction so far makes sense, but markets seem to have dismissed the risk entirely; Strait closure and a nuclear-armed Iran remain possible, justifying taking some money off the table.
#IranIsraelConflict #IranUnderAttack #Oil #SPX

[arif @haleli_resi]

Market calm suggests the Iran-Israel conflict is treated as another Middle East conflict. On Mon, gold prices fell, Treasury yields rose, and the VIX declined as both nations continued attacks. Equities unexpectedly rebounded against TLT, reaching their highest since Jan 21.(1/4)

[arif @haleli_resi]

Is the market right to stay calm? With US shale gas reducing conflict impact and rising inventories, which usually push oil prices downward, the market remains calm.

[arif @haleli_resi]

Several emerging markets and frontier markets have joined the descent, except Turkey (recovering from its easy-money policy), Argentina and Brazil, which face idiosyncratic factors:
(7/7)

[arif @haleli_resi]

Most Emerging and Frontier markets have begun easing, and the FED maintains “well-positioned to wait for clarity”. The widening gap between US and EM rates, along with the rising pressure from POTUS, makes it harder for the Fed to further delay the cuts.
(1/7)

[arif @haleli_resi]

When inflation picked up in 2021, EM central banks coordinated rate hikes and now have begun the descent in a similar coordinated manner, while the Fed remains comfortable staying put on its own ledge.
(6/7)