I’m trying to make sense of this drawdown in quality names like $NBIS $AAOI $SIVE $LITE $SNDK that most likely are or will be at the center of the AI buildout for years to come.
So I’m digging through historical data and what I find is that every generational winner paid a brutal toll first.
$AMZN fell 94% in the dot com bust. Then it became a 1,000 bagger.
$AAPL dropped 83% in that same era before it grew into the most valuable company on earth.
$MNST gave back 69% in 2008 on its way to one of the best runs in market history.
$TSLA lost 74% from its 2021 peak into early 2023, then ripped to new highs.
$NFLX cratered 82% in 2011, then 10x and kept going.
None of these were broken businesses at the bottom. The business kept compounding, and the stock re rated higher once the fear cleared.
Morgan Stanley looked at the 20 best performing US stocks from 1985 to 2024. Every single one drew down at least 55%.
The six biggest wealth creators averaged an 80% drawdown.
Now some will say this is just survivorship bias, and that is fair. For every name that came back there were hundreds that did not.
That is exactly why we do the work. We are not betting at random, we are concentrating on the few with a real business underneath the drawdown. The ones that never came back were broken to begin with, or they were not in the right place at the right time.
The only way to stay on the right side of it is conviction built on your own research, not chance.
Call it copium if you want, and maybe there is some truth to that, but I’d rather be wrong following my own thesis and conviction than being a sheep in someone else’s playbook.
I’m always forward looking, in stocks and in life, and there is no way around where the future is headed. Don’t let the price action of just a couple of weeks sidetrack you.
Bullish AI buildout.
Most people think the AI buildout is just a couple of stocks – Memory, CPU, GPU, NeoClouds, Photonics..
$SNDK, $MU, $ARM $INTC, $AMD, $NBIS, $LITE, $AAOI, $TSEM, $SIVE
The reality is there’s so much more to it.. I built a complete map of the AI buildout – at least the one I’ve been trading around for the last year.. I put that map on my Substack… 12 layers deep.
Since I’ve seen it circulating on here, I’ll just post it myself.
The hard part isn’t knowing the full stack – it’s making sense of it.
Why is photonics down today but memory isn’t? Why is CPO so relevant in the AI buildout?
Bullish AF on AI infrastructure.
Go check out the full article for free on my Substack, and if you’re going to share it – please do, but link back to my article.
Here is the link: https://t.co/AqKTdxnlmJ
Let’s go find the next 1000% stock ⚡️⚡️
Today, we're launching “Farseer,” a multi-phase initiative designed to transition mature quantum sensing and timing technologies directly to the Joint Force.
Farseer seeks innovative commercial solutions to prototype and demonstrate advanced, quantum-enabled sensing and timing platforms to address warfighter needs. It is structured across four primary Lines of Effort (LoE), each focused on critical mission use cases:
- Magnetometers
- Gravimeters
- Portable clocks, and
- Component technologies for spiral enhancements to quantum sensing and timing solutions.
This project represents a fundamental shift away from the limitations of classical Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) sensors. By harnessing the unique properties of quantum physics, this project is set to shatter the longstanding "sensitivity-SWaP" (Size, Weight, and Power) trade-off, unlocking unprecedented situational awareness for aerial, surface, and subsurface missions in the electromagnetically contested world.
“The United States Department of War must accelerate deployment and commercialization of quantum sensing to maintain superiority of knowledge of the battle space, speed of decision, and operational dominance,” said Kyle Norman, who leads DIU's quantum sensing team.
Learn more: https://t.co/Wj2D5GIB32
Submit a solution here (due 10 July at 11:59:59 p.m. Eastern Time): https://t.co/LLOmq6OTXX.
Long $INFQ / Infleqtion in my personal account.
Step back and look at the macro. Every compute era has a moment where the government stops watching from the sidelines and starts writing checks. Semis had it. AI compute had it. Quantum is starting to have it right now.
The Dept of Commerce just signed a $100M CHIPS letter of intent with Infleqtion and is taking an equity stake. When the state wants a seat on the cap table of a $3B company, that is not a grant. It is a strategic bet on who owns the next computing platform.
And the story is moving today. This morning Infleqtion launched America's Quantum Space Initiative alongside Voyager and CU Boulder, pushing quantum into space infrastructure. The stock is up about 10% on it. When a name climbs on real news instead of just a market bid, the tape is telling you something.
Underneath the headlines sits a genuine technology inflection. Quantum spent a decade as a science project, stuck on one question: which architecture actually scales to fault tolerance. Superconducting qubits are hitting a wall. Neutral atoms are emerging as the path that scales, and Infleqtion is the cleanest public pure-play on it.
So you have a real tech inflection meeting a government-anchored capital cycle, with live catalysts firing, inside a $3.1B name near $14 off the $8.50 low. If quantum delivers, the market is measured in hundreds of billions. The risk is a small, liquid position.
Multi-year theme, not a trade. Starter size, wide stop, let it prove itself. My own money, not advice.
Gas turbines are sold out until 2030.
GE, Siemens, Mitsubishi have zero capacity left.
But the real bottleneck isn’t the turbine.
It’s the blade.
Single-crystal nickel superalloy. 90 weeks to grow. $600K a set. 3 companies on Earth can make them.
$HWM makes them.
$ATI makes the alloy.
$GEV assembles the machine.
Interesting play.
I'll post the portfolio here every day. Green and red, nothing hidden. No track record to sell you yet, and that's the whole point. Follow along and watch it get built in real time. If this works, you'll have seen every single trade that got it there.
Monday I'm turning an AI loose on my own money. No human in the loop. It hunts the small names before they rip, sizes the bet, and holds for the 10x. I'll post every move here, win or lose. Buckle up.
And it has to stay honest with itself. Every signal earns its weight against what actually happened next, not what sounded smart in the moment. Found this one this week: insider buying pops a stock for about a week, then the edge is gone. That's timing info, not a reason to marry the name.
I have had 1,000 conversations with government officials that go like this:
1. “How do we have a Silicon Valley of our own?”
2. [I list the half dozen key things]
3. “But what if we can’t do any of those?”
The world would be better with 10, 100, 1,000 more Silicon Valleys.