Tim Disher, PhD

Registered Nurse, founding principal at Sandpiper Analytics. Opinions are my own.

[Tim Disher, PhD @halifaxtim]

@VickersBiostats First link 404s for me fyi

[Tim Disher, PhD @halifaxtim]

@5_utr @f2harrell @raj_mehta @RWJE_BA @doc_BLocke @PatientStormDoc Hadn't seen this before is it a well known phenomenon? I work in HTA and there is a pressure to fit big saturated interaction models in NMAs despite weak evidence of effect modification. Would love to have another arrow in the quiver to push back

[Tim Disher, PhD @halifaxtim]

@VickersBiostats Always love following your work and eager to learn about any specific pearls in urology that might apply elsewhere. Can you a share a non-paywalled version?

[Tim Disher, PhD @halifaxtim]

@PH_OSINT @nsgov @HikeNovaScotia Update here my NL trip to back country (long range) ended up going ahead despite fires here 3x size of anything in NS right, regional state of emergency, SAR strain etc... I think it adds some evidence that balance of risks is less certain than being presented in NS atm imo

[Tim Disher, PhD @halifaxtim]

NS banned hiking & cycling in woods over wildfire risk, but only 2.4% of 2025 fires started on trails. I analyzed 124 fires to test this ban. The burn ban? Checks out. Closing the woods? Not so much. 🧵@nsgov @HikeNovaScotia

[Tim Disher, PhD @halifaxtim]

@PH_OSINT @nsgov @HikeNovaScotia That is a lot different than most of the active transportation corridors that happen to travel through a wooded section, salt marsh trail, etc. The blanket ban is what makes the least sense to me.

[Tim Disher, PhD @halifaxtim]

@PH_OSINT @nsgov @HikeNovaScotia I had a hike on LRT in Gros Morne planned for this week that is going to be cancelled but that seems reasonable to me because of activation of military and strained resources for doing truly remote rescues.

[Tim Disher, PhD @halifaxtim]

@PH_OSINT @nsgov @HikeNovaScotia Understand safest option is to remove all sources/strains on resources but I think they made a move on the lowest risk while keeping a lot of higher risk activities so it seems like they accept the need for some risk but didn't really follow the data as far as I can see

[Tim Disher, PhD @halifaxtim]

@PH_OSINT @nsgov @HikeNovaScotia Agree it's a shame they decided to roll the dice on limited new investment but hopefully they are getting the message that this is new normal. We might have to agree to disagree that banning hiking/cycling really do anything to help with this.

[Tim Disher, PhD @halifaxtim]

@PH_OSINT @nsgov @HikeNovaScotia I think there is a risk gov is taking an easy route to show they are taking conditions seriously, while avoiding more legitimate causes. Basically everywhere I drive in Nova Scotia is indistinguishable from a trail in the woods so it feels like "we has to do something"

[Tim Disher, PhD @halifaxtim]

@PH_OSINT @nsgov @HikeNovaScotia Also falls short imo since the emphasis from gov has been on fire risk initially with some minimal talk of potential need for rescue. Even then, I think they have to demonstrate that they've actually weighed options and determined its a legitimate restriction.

[Tim Disher, PhD @halifaxtim]

@PH_OSINT @CBCNS @CCF_CANADA They list human/NA but its unclear whether the NA means non human or just no info. Gov has been resistant re: causes in pressers (we will look into causes after the emergency is over).

[Tim Disher, PhD @halifaxtim]

I think the most controversial decision on this map might be whether the ongoing Susies lake fire counts as on trail since there is a trail in the area. I have it marked it as structure/property for now since my understanding is that it's not related to the hiking trails

[Tim Disher, PhD @halifaxtim]

Check my map, see the data, check my decisions/math, share your take! ➡️https://t.co/r9LqpcKYnZ #NovaScotia

[Tim Disher, PhD @halifaxtim]

Tagged the wrong CCF :) @CDNConstFound