L. Otto

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

As for $LPK: Maybe $3B-$5B seems reasonable when they fully volume ramp if I had to guess.

Feels more asymmetrical to me personally since it's just a waiting game and they have the customers for glass substrates.

Small machine supplier chokepoints usually cap out from TAM though and don't go to $20B+ unless you're ASML or hold many chokepoints like KLAC.

Not many dominant "monopolies" like these out there right before volume ramp this small:

Maybe you have stuff like:
- Aixtron (MOCVD) ~$8B
- Towa (compression bonding) ~$2B
- Techwing (memory handler/cube probes) ~$1.5B
- MSScorps (CPO inspection), but pre-ramp. $850M
- Riber (quantum MBE), very pre-ramp ~$350M

Then LPK Laser for glass core substrates (about to ramp) at ~$730M, which thematically should have more premiums than memory. (eg. major advanced packaging shift, CPO adjacent, etc).

Lot of obscure chemical monopolies I know of, but those don't get as much attention cause BOM is much lower than equipment.

But for lpk you have:

eg. “80% of customers among major global players have selected LPKF equipment”.

70% of LIDE market share target for TGV in the glass-core ramp, should be very material. (disclosure: own, the listed names above aside from techwing/aixtron, NFI).

Just kinda the path they go if you follow $AEHR at ~$3.5B now:

- <$500m: "Oh they have no customers!"
---> (probably somewhere in the middle here).
- < $1.5B: "Maybe volume comes soon!"
- $3B+ onward: "Looks like they're starting to volume ramp.

Just a lesson for the cycle of the chokepoint machine suppliers from my personal experiences.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

I expect Japan to mog Sweden in the World Cup tomorrow.

Probably another 4-0 after Japan's soccer players saw how Swedish media treated $SIVE.

[ChinoAleman @chinoalemano]

$TRT is pretty cheap compared to $AEHR.

People also talk a lot about its supposed link to $COHR.

And to other giants like $AMD, $NVDA, and $MU.

So I went deep and wrote my DD.

I kept it simple.

No jargon, no filler, straight to the point.

What it is:

A 67-year-old company that stress-tests chips before they ship.

Picks and shovels.

It gets paid no matter which chip wins.

And revenue is exploding: +58%, then +82%, then +124% the last three quarters.

The AEHR gap, honestly:

TRT trades at a fraction of AEHR.

That gap is massive, and it IS the opportunity.

Because if it weren't, it would already be priced higher.

You'd already be late.

It wouldn't be an opportunity anymore.

Yes, the two don't do the exact same job (AEHR is wafer-level at 40-50% margins, TRT is board-level at ~16%).

That's the bear case, and it's fair.

But that's the whole point: the ONLY thing between TRT and a re-rating is that margin.

And TRT looks like it's running thin margins on purpose, taking high-volume work to get in the door, with high-margin boards and a brand-new plant lined up to flip it.

The day that margin turns, the gap doesn't slowly close.

It snaps shut.

The connections:

One is already locked in: NXP, on its official supplier list. TRT is inside a tier-1 chip supply chain, on paper.

And the trail doesn't stop there.

$AMD, $NVDA, $MU and $COHR all turn up around TRT: job ads, shared landlords, sites next door.

Nothing officially confirmed yet, but the smoke is everywhere.

Yes, these are rumors.

But not astrology.

Tangible, real things.

Coincidences that might be coincidences, or might not.

And the fact they're still rumors is exactly what makes this a buying opportunity.

If it were already official, you'd be late.

Buy the rumor, sell the news.

The AI customer, though?

That one is real. Just unnamed, for now.

The whole thesis in one number:

Gross margin fell from ~26% to ~16%, because the new growth is low-margin AI testing.

For years it held 23-27%.

If that margin recovers, you get earnings growth AND a re-rating at once.

That's the 10x case.

If it doesn't, the price already reflects a lot.

Penang:

They just signed a big new plant as chips leave China.

Right now it's basically empty.

A fixed cost, today.

The bet is it fills with high-margin work.

Or probably already has a customer's name on it?

I wouldn't be surprised.

We'll see.

The risks (real ones):

Thin margins. One customer is ~41% of sales.

No clear moat yet.

The plant is a cost before it's a profit.

Why I'm long anyway:

In the middle of an AI boom, with capacity maxed out and chips forced out of China, I don't buy that TRT is cutting margins for no reason.

I think it's getting in cheap to land giants and earn the margin later.

High risk, high reward.

The test that settles it: next earnings in September.

Watch if revenue AND margin rise together.

Full DD here, honest, both sides 👇

Long $TRT. Not financial advice. DYOR.

[The Trend Sage @JonkooTrades]

New $TRT deep dive is live - with the new information we have gathered over the past weeks!

$TRT: the 67-year-old micro-cap hiding in the middle of Penang, the single hottest cluster in the entire chip world.

The giants are spending billions to get into Penang. $TRT has been sitting there for decades.

Here is why the market is mispricing it:
→ Revenue +124%, accelerating three quarters straight
→ Threaded into AMD, Micron, Coherent and the Nvidia server chain, all from one corner of Penang
→ Owns factories worth ~$12M, carried at ~$2.4M on the books
→ Just sealed the minority leak right before the boom
→ Trades at 3x sales while $AEHR does practically the same job at 37x

A profitable, accelerating, asset-rich chip-testing company, physically embedded in the AI cluster, at a ~$150M market cap.

Keep sleeping on this one.

DYOR. Not financial advice.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

That’s a misconception:

$SIVE is the laser supplier for next gen architectures, not just CPO scale up.

Pluggable, scale out CPO, scale up CPO, NPO, etc.

- Sivers and $JBL went god-mode and developed 1.6T optical transceivers with CW lasers.

Effectively designing around the EML bottlenecks, and even made things more power efficient.

From quotes from Jabil management they created a “relatively dramatic moat”.

So for the next gen of 1.6T pluggable transceivers, Sivers seems immediately used.

Markets missed this nuance too: after Jabil’s announcement, other pluggable players reached out, and SIVE is working with them now (prob codevelopment, qualification stage).

There’s not too many players that build optical transceivers that aren’t vertically integrated like Lumentum (think: Innolight/eoptolink, and maybe others).

So these are active developments, just not public material yet and could be a new press release anytime.

- for CPO scale out which happens H2 2026 onward like $POET, $SIVE is a laser supplier for those players.

- scale up CPO is h2 2027, from Ayar and Nvidia’a NVLink CPO ecosystem and that’s the main volume ramp across optical players.

But this is where $SIVE looks like they mog every other player from supply chain mapping.

Since they’ve likely been working + designed in with $MRVL Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence and the others since they were small way back when.

On top of things like this:

For foundries like $GFS, $SIVE is the reference laser.

Not even including massive companies like O-Net building ELS with $SIVE, likely for the Asian hyperscalers supply chains.

This is why $SIVE is by far my favorite laser chokepoint long.

Feels like they’re everywhere in new optical architectures starting beginning of 2027.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Wow, I completely missed this with $LPK meeting notes.

And I think markets did too. My biggest takeaway:

- NASDAQ listing is actively on their radar and are in discussions.
- 70% market share targeted, unholy target.
- TAM greatly exceeds former projections.
- See a 4-5 base case of players this year with orders.
- Industry is ready for high volume ramps.

I do think LPK is very undervalued based on these discussions (disclosure: own positions).