The most painful scenario for everyone except $BTC holders would be for it to go sideways for the next few months and mark an unexpectedly slow Q1 after what was a very strong Q3.
Some Ideas:
■ I firmly believe that the Melania coin launch did not do anything other than accelerate the pre-existing illiquid conditions the market was facing
■ The $TRUMP launch in hindsight was the most destructive event we had in the last 2 years in crypto.
■ With November's altseason being mostly of the boomer/retail coins, Bitcoin's run and the AI run, too much liquidity was extracted from market participants.
■ Too many memecoins ran up to $500M+ and never recovered, extracting millions from traders.
■ AI Coins saw incredible volatility, doing -20% days followed by +30% and -30% days for over a week. This must have burned out the remaining players in the market.
The reason why I say painful is not because it will be down only, but because market participants are like drug addicts in periods of high volatility.
When that volatility ends, things get depressing.
On the day I sold everything (little over a week ago), I did not have these concepts as clearly as I now have, but felt it based on how many times I saw this happen and didn't do anything in the past.
Current causes of Uncertainty in the Market:
■ Tariffs war
■ Stocks performance
■ Commodities price action from Tariffs
■ ??? Might be missing more, let me know
On the other hand, we have a lot of potentially good catalysts for price at the start of Q2:
■ Altcoin ETFs
■ Will have seen the bulk of tariffs uncertainty clear out
■ More information on the SBR
■ Better Liquidity conditions
As always, please take this with a grain of salt, I'm sharing my thoughts which could be completely incorrect.
Would honestly love to see other PoVs.