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The Telegram channel “Byt Ili” conducted a detailed analysis of the performance of Russian air defense during yesterday’s Ukrainian drone raid on Moscow.
It was the first time that the operation of Russian air defense could be observed almost in real time.
Key conclusions from the analysis:
“Perhaps the most surprising thing for me in today’s strike on the Moscow oil refinery is the number of missed interceptions by Russian air defense systems against Ukrainian UAVs.
In this compilation, I’ve specifically cut together the misses by ‘Pantsirs’.
The selection is not complete.
For the first time, we were able to observe in real time how Russian air defense operates during large-scale drone raids. And I have no rational explanation for why it performs THIS poorly.
Yan Matveev described it most succinctly: ‘Air defense systems were deployed right in the city, missiles are flying chaotically in all directions and missing their targets; the threat from them is no less (and perhaps even greater) than from the drones themselves.’
But this still doesn’t answer the question: why is it like this?
After all, these are UAVs flying at low speed — not cruise missiles, and certainly not ballistic ones.
This can hardly even be described as a combined strike designed to overwhelm air defenses. The only fast-moving targets here were a few jet-powered UAVs like “Bars,” and there were very few of them.
This is nowhere near the level of overload seen in Ukrainian air defenses during Russian combined missile strikes. And yet, even a strike of this scale creates chaos and confusion for Russian air defenses.
It also leads to the conclusion that ‘Pantsir’ systems perform rather poorly against UAVs.
Now it becomes clear why there is such a shortage of Pantsir missiles — because even slow Ukrainian drones sometimes cannot be shot down with two missiles.
This is shown in videos 1 and 2 — two misses by a Pantsir against a single UAV, which ultimately hits its target.
In video 3, a Pantsir misses the first UAV, misses the second, and only the third missile manages to shoot down the second UAV.”
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