@htsfhickey Every rate hike hurts longs in gold futures. Rolling over those positions used to be virtually free. Now very expensive. Opposite for shorts. That’s not going to change. Fed pivot is just hope.
@htsfhickey They have political cover to fight inflation. Pivot for them would be more criticized than remaining tight, even at expense of breaking things. Your narrative is likely wishful thinking for goldbugs.
@htsfhickey Only going to rally if Fed pivots - early. Does not look like it. They are determined to tighten, no matter what. And public opinion supports them this time! Balance sheet contraction only beginning, and will continue to kill metals.
@ADrunkenmiller@htsfhickey Both metal and bonds lost money this year. Problem for most goldbugs is their bias is faith-based, not analysis based. There is always the big payoff at the end of the rainbow. Smart Asian CBs, stupid hedge funds. But those have been making a killing, unlike goldbugs.
@htsfhickey Sharp decline was concentrated, but slow downward trickle before and after continuous. Gold did not perform for a decade when it should have. Now with massive headwinds you expect better? Is this really anything but hope/faith? Let's examine our confirmation bias!
@htsfhickey $NEM under $2 eps annualized, with a generous p/e of 15, makes $30. Why is it worth more? Anything higher seems just irrational goldbuggery ...
@htsfhickey Time to zoom out and assess gold: Last decade: massive QE, massive fiscal deficits, zero interest rates, decades-high inflation, now land war in Europe: gold flat, down in real terms. Does it still serve any purpose?
@htsfhickey Same story for the last decade, though. Hasn't panned out. And this is the "seasonally strong period?" Let's hope for a great "Indian Wedding Season."