hao

Yanbo’s father and crypto’s lover

[hao @haovalue]

@DearS_o_n laziness

[Viking @vikingmute]

怎样让 AI 写的文章有人味？这个 Humanizer 看起来是最火的：https://t.co/YTGLLHepKJ

一个 skill ，488 行的内容，7K 个 star，但是应该只对英文生效，我也不知道具体效果怎么样，但是反馈好像不错，假如经常要用 AI 要写英文文章的可以试试看。

[Nav Toor @heynavtoor]

https://t.co/4dVxOmAubl

[Han Qin (姓秦，名汉，字大知) @hqinjarsy]

有朋友问BTC到底有什么价值？

好，那咱们从第一性原理出发，抛开周期，只思考BTC本身，谈谈BTC到底carry什么价值。

BTC常被比喻为“数字黄金”，其实它carry的核心价值是“不可篡改的稀缺性承诺”。

首先，BTC有货币性，但它不是货币，因为它缺乏稳定的计价单位功能（奥地利学派肯定会不同意，但咱们先按凯恩斯学派的思路来展开讨论）。

它 carry 的是一种纯粹的“货币性”，即人类对"什么东西可以充当价值存储"这件事的共识博弈。黄金其实carry的也是这个，但黄金的稀缺性依赖物理世界的地质约束，BTC的稀缺性依赖数学和博弈论，是一种信息层面的稀缺性。

但 BTC 真正独特的，不是这个币本身，不是“数字黄金”的叙事，而是区块链是人类历史上第一个无需许可，无法关闭的价值结算层。这不是一个BTC的feature，这是一个全新的基础设施类别。任何主权实体都无法单方面阻止一笔 BTC 交易的最终结算。这个属性在和平时期可能被低估，但在地缘冲突和资本管制加剧时会被重新定价。

BTC 的 PoW 本质上是把现实世界的能量（电力）不可逆地转化为链上的安全保障。这意味着 BTC 的安全性有物理世界的热力学成本做锚，不是纯粹的信念游戏。这是它和所有PoS链的根本区别。PoS的安全性是自引用的（用token 保护 token），PoW的安全性是外引用的（用能量保护 token）。

用我常用的框架来说，BTC carry 的是一种系统层面的对冲。它不是对冲通胀（这太窄了），不是对冲美元（这又太具体了）。它对冲的是制度性信任的结构性退化。

当我们问“央行会不会滥发”，“政府会不会冻结账户”，“跨境结算会不会被武器化”的时候，我们在问一个底层问题，就是现有制度架构还有没有可信的承诺能力。BTC carry 的就是这个 meta-level 的不确定性溢价。

当然 BTC 的价值完全依赖网络效应和博弈均衡的自我维持。它没有现金流，没有生产力，没有主权背书。如果人类的制度信任突然修复（虽然这种概率不怎么高），或者出现一个在所有维度上都更 superior 的替代方案，那 BTC 的价值基础就会动摇。

换句话说，BTC 的价值不是内生的，是反身性的，就是越多人相信它有价值，它就越有价值，反之亦然。

所以最终答案是 BTC carry 的是人类对自身制度能力不信任的金融化表达。 它的天花板取决于这种不信任的深度和广度，地板取决于有没有超级替代方案。

[0xNobler @CryptoNobler]

🚨 HERE’S WHY BITCOIN IS NONSTOP DUMPING RIGHT NOW

If you still think $BTC trades like a supply-and-demand asset, you MUST read this carefully.

Because that market no longer exists.

What you’re watching right now is not normal price action.

It’s not “weak hands.”
It’s not sentiment.
And it’s definitely not retail selling.

Most people are completely unaware what’s happening.

And by the time it becomes obvious, the damage is already done.

This move didn’t start today.
It’s been building quietly under the surface for months.

And now it’s accelerating.

Here’s the truth:

The moment supply can be synthetically created, scarcity is gone.

And when scarcity is gone, price stops being discovered on-chain and starts being set in derivatives.

That is exactly what happened to Bitcoin.

And it’s the same structural break that already happened to:
→ Gold
→ Silver
→ Oil
→ Equities

Once derivatives took over.

The original Bitcoin thesis is broken.

Bitcoin’s valuation was built on two ideas:
→ A hard cap of 21 million
→ No rehypothecation

That framework died the moment Wall Street layered this on top of the chain:
→ Cash-settled futures
→ Perpetual swaps
→ Options
→ ETFs
→ Prime broker lending
→ Wrapped BTC
→ Total return swaps

From that point forward Bitcoin supply became theoretically INFINITE.

Not on-chain.
But in price discovery, which is what actually matters.

Synthetic Float Ratio (SFR).

The metric that explains everything.

Once synthetic supply overwhelms real supply, price no longer responds to demand.

It responds to positioning, hedging, and liquidation flows.

Wall Street can now trade against Bitcoin.

They’re not guessing direction.

They’re doing what they do in every derivatives-dominated market:
1⃣ Create unlimited paper BTC
2⃣ Short into rallies
3⃣ Force liquidations
4⃣ Cover lower
5⃣ Repeat

This isn’t “betting.”

It’s inventory manufacturing.

One real BTC can now simultaneously back:
→ An ETF share
→ A futures contract
→ A perpetual swap
→ An options delta
→ A broker loan
→ A structured note

All at THE SAME TIME.

That’s six claims on one coin.

That is not a free market.

That is a fractional-reserve price system wearing a Bitcoin mask.

Ignore it if you want, but don’t pretend you weren’t warned.

I’ve been calling Bitcoin tops and bottoms for over a decade now, and I’ll do it again in 2026.

Follow and turn on notifications before it's too late.

[hao @haovalue]

buy in ETH and monitor what EF are doing

[vitalik.eth @VitalikButerin]

There have recently been some discussions on the ongoing role of L2s in the Ethereum ecosystem, especially in the face of two facts:

* L2s' progress to stage 2 (and, secondarily, on interop) has been far slower and more difficult than originally expected
* L1 itself is scaling, fees are very low, and gaslimits are projected to increase greatly in 2026

Both of these facts, for their own separate reasons, mean that the original vision of L2s and their role in Ethereum no longer makes sense, and we need a new path.

First, let us recap the original vision. Ethereum needs to scale. The definition of "Ethereum scaling" is the existence of large quantities of block space that is backed by the full faith and credit of Ethereum - that is, block space where, if you do things (including with ETH) inside that block space, your activities are guaranteed to be valid, uncensored, unreverted, untouched, as long as Ethereum itself functions. If you create a 10000 TPS EVM where its connection to L1 is mediated by a multisig bridge, then you are not scaling Ethereum.

This vision no longer makes sense. L1 does not need L2s to be "branded shards", because L1 is itself scaling. And L2s are not able or willing to satisfy the properties that a true "branded shard" would require. I've even seen at least one explicitly saying that they may never want to go beyond stage 1, not just for technical reasons around ZK-EVM safety, but also because their customers' regulatory needs require them to have ultimate control. This may be doing the right thing for your customers. But it should be obvious that if you are doing this, then you are not "scaling Ethereum" in the sense meant by the rollup-centric roadmap. But that's fine! it's fine because Ethereum itself is now scaling directly on L1, with large planned increases to its gas limit this year and the years ahead.

We should stop thinking about L2s as literally being "branded shards" of Ethereum, with the social status and responsibilities that this entails. Instead, we can think of L2s as being a full spectrum, which includes both chains backed by the full faith and credit of Ethereum with various unique properties (eg. not just EVM), as well as a whole array of options at different levels of connection to Ethereum, that each person (or bot) is free to care about or not care about depending on their needs.

What would I do today if I were an L2?

* Identify a value add other than "scaling". Examples: (i) non-EVM specialized features/VMs around privacy, (ii) efficiency specialized around a particular application, (iii) truly extreme levels of scaling that even a greatly expanded L1 will not do, (iv) a totally different design for non-financial applications, eg. social, identity, AI, (v) ultra-low-latency and other sequencing properties, (vi) maybe built-in oracles or decentralized dispute resolution or other "non-computationally-verifiable" features
* Be stage 1 at the minimum (otherwise you really are just a separate L1 with a bridge, and you should just call yourself that) if you're doing things with ETH or other ethereum-issued assets
* Support maximum interoperability with Ethereum, though this will differ for each one (eg. what if you're not EVM, or even not financial?)

From Ethereum's side, over the past few months I've become more convinced of the value of the native rollup precompile, particuarly once we have enshrined ZK-EVM proofs that we need anyway to scale L1. This is a precompile that verifies a ZK-EVM proof, and it's "part of Ethereum", so (i) it auto-upgrades along with Ethereum, and (ii) if the precompile has a bug, Ethereum will hard-fork to fix the bug.

The native rollup precompile would make full, security-council-free, EVM verification accessible. We should spend much more time working out how to design it in such a way that if your L2 is "EVM plus other stuff", then the native rollup precompile would verify the EVM, and you only have to bring your own prover for the "other stuff" (eg. Stylus). This might involve a canonical way of exposing a lookup table between contract call inputs and outputs, and letting you provide your own values to the lookup table (that you would prove separately).

This would make it easy to have safe, strong, trustless interoperability with Ethereum. It also enables synchronous composability (see: https://t.co/9jy6v1X6Fw and https://t.co/gZmu3YjebM ). And from there, it's each L2's choice exactly what they want to build. Don't just "extend L1", figure out something new to add.

This of course means that some will add things that are trust-dependent, or backdoored, or otherwise insecure; this is unavoidable in a permissionless ecosystem where developers have freedom. Our job should make to make it clear to users what guarantees they have, and to build up the strongest Ethereum that we can.

[DiscusFish @bitfish]

换新iPhone了？我每次换机都有套固定流程——不是装App，是先做安全设置。分享一下，20分钟的事。

🔐 密码层

用自定义字母+数字密码（6位数字PIN太弱）
Face ID 开启「注意力感知」（闭眼/睡着无法解锁）
10次密码错误 → 自动抹除数据

🛡️ 失窃保护层

开启「失窃设备保护」+「锁定模式」
开启「查找我的iPhone」+ 查找网络 + 发送最后位置

🔒 锁屏隐私层

锁屏禁用：控制中心 / Siri / USB配件
通知预览 →「解锁时」或「从不」
给 SIM 卡加 PIN（防止被拔卡插到别的手机）

🍎 Apple账户层（最关键）

开启双重认证 + 绑定硬件安全密钥（YubiKey，至少两把）
开启「iCloud高级数据保护」
设好恢复联系人/恢复密钥
关闭 iCloud 网页端访问（堵住远程入口）

你的iPhone值多少不重要，里面的东西值多少才重要。

[hao @haovalue]

@bitfish 尝试理解是时空政策资金和市场情绪几方面的套利，
关于交易的第一性原理，能否做一些补充点拨？

[hao @haovalue]

to da moon

[DogeDesigner @cb_doge]

All 11 Starship Launches

Flight 1: Apr 20, 2023
Flight 2: Nov 18, 2023
Flight 3: Mar 14, 2024
Flight 4: Jun 6, 2024
Flight 5: Oct 13, 2024
Flight 6: Nov 19, 2024
Flight 7: Jan 16, 2025
Flight 8: Mar 6, 2025
Flight 9: May 27, 2025
Flight 10: Aug 26, 2025
Flight 11: Oct 13, 2025

[hao @haovalue]

@haonan is it possible to get pegged with gold？

[Liron Shapira @liron]

Helen Toner (@hlntnr), former OpenAI board member, is finally going on record about firing Sam Altman:

😱 “He gave us inaccurate information about the small number of formal safety processes that the company did have in place.”

😱 “When ChatGPT came out, the board was not informed in advance about that. We learned about ChatGPT on Twitter.”

😱 “Sam didn't inform the board that he owned the OpenAI startup fund.”

My two cents:
This was inexcusable behavior on Sam's part, the old board was right to fire him, and the new board should fire him again.

[hao @haovalue]

great for our young

[Helen Toner @hlntnr]

Seems like everyone wants to know more about how large language models work, but existing explainers often:
-Are too shallow or too technical
-Focus on how LLMs predict the next word, which is only part of the story

So we wrote 3 explainers of our own! 🧵
https://t.co/s7C8Ml7WZl

[hao @haovalue]

thats why stock and crypto markets are crying

[Ai Business Journal @ArchieIntel]

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 Republic First Bank officially collapses and seized by regulators.

Banking Crisis II begins… 👀

[hao @haovalue]

@Alphatu5 深有感触

[sartoshi @sartoshi_rip]

mfercoin: a peer-to-peer electronic mfer system

https://t.co/gBQdv2C1Jw

[hao @haovalue]

@sartoshi_rip lovely mfers

[hao @haovalue]

The simple, 5-step social media funnel but not easy

[Justin Welsh @thejustinwelsh]

The simple, 5-step social media funnel I've used to generate $6.74M+ in revenue:

[hao @haovalue]

@haydenzadams trying

[HELLVEN'S GATE @HellvenGate]

Hellven x Denet

💰Reward: 20 $USDT

To enter:
1⃣Follow @HellvenGate

2⃣RT+LIKE https://t.co/ekn8n8wrO7

#Airdrops #Hellven #Giveaway #USDT