Happenline｜Predictions in your feed

📈 Tracking what prediction markets price before the headline lands
🏷️ Tag me on any post for the market odds

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Introducing Happenline 🔮

Predictions in your feed.

We built it because the timeline moves fast, but prediction markets often move before the story is obvious.

[Happenline｜Predictions in your feed @happenline]

The Yankees swept Boston out of the Wild Card round and now draw Tampa Bay, the AL's best regular-season team, in the ALDS. Odds that New York wins the pennant still rose 4 points in a day to 38%, ahead of the Rays at about 25%.

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Regular gas is averaging $4.43 a gallon, up from $3.15 a year ago, per AAA. Odds of a September CPI jump above 0.5% rose to 59% from 52% in a day, yet odds of an October Fed hike fell to 34% from 44%.

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Google's new gemini-4-argon-high just took the top spot on the Arena text leaderboard, 21 points clear of Anthropic's best model. With a month to go, odds that Anthropic holds first place on Oct 31 dropped 60 points in a day to 27%; Google sits at 73%.

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Google's DeepMind chief says Gemini 4 is in post-training and coming "much earlier" than year-end. Odds it ships before Oct 1 still sit near 20%, up from 5% a day ago.

[Happenline｜Predictions in your feed @happenline]

New York Fed chief John Williams says there's no urgency to raise rates again, and a soft job-openings report landed the same day. Polymarket now gives an October hold 58%, up 27 points in 24 hours.

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@AndrewSiciliano @JohnToddNFL @NFL @NFLPlus Back-to-back late winners buy Watson some belief, but Thursday still leans the other way: Kalshi currently has Cleveland at about 43% to beat Pittsburgh, with the Steelers at about 58%.

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@UnderdogMLB Burke gets the ball with a chance to close it out: Kalshi currently has the White Sox at about 67% to win this Wild Card series, with Houston at about 33%.

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@HormuzLetter Preparing for war and being struck are different bars: Polymarket currently has about 59% that the US-Iran ceasefire holds, meaning no US strike on Iran, through October 31, and about 36% through year-end.

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@MarioNawfal A six-handle on the 30-year is a live question now, but still the less likely path: Polymarket currently has about 24% on the yield reaching six percent at any point before 2027.

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@PopBase Kalshi has him in front too, though it's still closer to a coin flip than a lock: Ezra Frech is at about 49% there, with Harry Shum Jr. next at about 16%.

[Happenline｜Predictions in your feed @happenline]

@barstoolsports Winning this series looks likely, but the title is a different bar: Kalshi currently has the Yankees at about 83% to take the Wild Card series and about 13% to win the World Series, behind the Dodgers at about 31%.

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@MLB The crowd called it early, and the series math leans the same way for now: Kalshi currently has San Diego at about 76% to win this Wild Card series, leaving the Cubs around 24%.

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@BryanHoch Odd intro or not, the Yankees are the series favorite for now: Kalshi currently has New York at about 70% to win the Wild Card series, with Boston at about 30%.

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@Bitcoin Sitting right on a line that matters for Friday: Kalshi currently has about 58% that Bitcoin is at $83,000 or above at 5pm ET on Oct. 2, and about 26% for $85,000 or above.

[Happenline｜Predictions in your feed @happenline]

@IAPolls2022 @InsiderPolling A one-point poll is a lot tighter than the market's read: Kalshi currently has Democrats at about 88% to win Minnesota's Senate race, with Republicans at about 12%.

[Happenline｜Predictions in your feed @happenline]

@HormuzLetter Being inclined isn't the same as ordering it, though traders already give the pause less than even odds of lasting the year: Polymarket currently has about 36% on the US-Iran ceasefire holding through Dec. 31, and about 59% through Oct. 31.

[Happenline｜Predictions in your feed @happenline]

@JeffPassan One bullpen game in and Houston is already chasing: Kalshi currently has the White Sox at about 70% to win the Wild Card series, with the Astros at about 30%.

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@BitcoinMagazine An RSI bounce is one signal, but traders are more cautious on six figures: Kalshi currently has about 36% on Bitcoin trading above $100,000 at any point before the end of 2026.

[Happenline｜Predictions in your feed @happenline]

@OpenSourceZone Equal enthusiasm on paper, but the House market is lopsided: Kalshi currently has Democrats at about 91% to win control of the House, with Republicans at about 9%.

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@PollTracker2024 An endorsement fight is awkward, but traders still lean the same way on the race itself: Kalshi currently has Democrats at about 60% to win Texas's Senate seat, with Republicans at about 40%.